Reflection Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$345,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,730 sqft · SingleFamily · 414 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

Key facts

• Sloped ceilings
• Attached garage
• Great room

Tags

• SLOPED CEILINGS
• GREAT ROOM
• ATTACHED GARAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $345,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $328,700.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $346k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $304k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 414 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $304,471 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 414 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.62%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $328,700
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9442 Spring Rain Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,710 (-1%)	3mo	$337,990	$198	69
9443 Garden Gate Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,710 (-1%)	3mo	$337,990	$198	68
1456 Shaded Rock Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,838 (+6%)	3mo	$330,000	$180	65
9431 Garden Gate Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,835 (+6%)	1mo	$350,000	$191	62
10311 Tranquil Lake Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,973 (+14%)	3mo	$392,844	$199	60
9447 Garden Gate Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+8%)	1mo	$354,990	$190	58
1318 Shaded Rock Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,838 (+6%)	4mo	$344,990	$188	56
9451 Garden Gate Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+10%)	1mo	$352,990	$186	55
1310 Shaded Rock Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,838 (+6%)	3mo	$347,740	$189	55
1334 Shaded Rock Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+10%)	0mo	$349,990	$183	48
1215 Shaded Rock Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-15%)	1mo	$349,440	$237	42
1212 Shaded Rock Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,977 (+14%)	3mo	$365,115	$185	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-26,272
• Equity at exit: $68,938

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-19,478
• Equity at exit: $63,853

Cash invested: $92,036 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,227 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,724
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,930/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$678
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,875

Max offer price $328,700

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,175
• Closing costs: $9,861
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	43d	1	0.04mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.90mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $345,990 Active 414 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $345,990 Active 413 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,990 Active 412 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,990 Active 411 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $345,990 Active 409 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,990 Active 405 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $345,990 Active 403 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $345,990 Active 400 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $345,990 Active 399 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $345,990 Active 398 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $345,990 Active 397 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $345,990 Active 396 DOM
13. 2026-05-15
    price $345,990 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

14. 2026-02-12
    price $341,990 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

15. 2026-02-03
    price $340,990 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

16. 2026-01-23
    price $330,990 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

17. 2026-01-15
    price $360,990 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

18. 2025-12-15
    price $359,990 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

19. 2025-12-03
    status Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

20. 2025-12-02
    historical 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

21. 2025-12-02
    status Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

22. 2025-12-02
    historical 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

23. 2025-09-03
    price $358,990 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

24. 2025-08-19
    status Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

25. 2025-07-02
    historical 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

26. 2025-05-17
    price $338,990 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

27. 2025-05-01
    price $334,990 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

28. 2025-04-16
    price $331,990 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

29. 2025-03-27
    price $328,990 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

30. 2025-03-13
    listed $348,990 Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,412
• − Property taxes: −$4,930
• − Insurance: −$1,644
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,097
• − Management: −$3,097
• − Depreciation: −$9,562
• Taxable loss: −$2,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$486
• After-tax cash flow: $3,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Modern appliances add to the home's appeal and functionality.
• Resale Bathroom updates — Fresh bathrooms can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Modern appliances add to the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Fresh bathrooms can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $345,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $341,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $340,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $330,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $360,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $359,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-03 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $358,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-19 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $338,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $334,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $331,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $328,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-13 Listed $348,990 Zillow