Is 1225 Boyd St in Aubrey, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.1% cap rate and $-390/mo modeled cash flow at a $389,090 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1225 Boyd St?

The modeled cap rate is 5.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $3,044/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 38.35

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +9.9/15.0
Cash flow +8.0/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Schools +4.9/10.0
Livability +3.6/5.0
1% rule +2.8/10.0
DSCR +2.1/10.0
Rent growth +2.0/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$389,090

1225 Boyd St · Aubrey, TX 76227

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 154 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,001 sqft lot 2-car garage $159/sqft · 5% below area Est $411k · 5% under $106/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Available August! Enjoy the outdoors with the San Luis boasts a spacious covered patio, open living areas, and a second story game room.

Key facts

New construction
5,001 sq ft lot
2 garage spots

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $389k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-390 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (14.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (21.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $304k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Aubrey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 71/100 on livability (#332 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Jackie Fuller El (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 735 students, 39% FRL); Aubrey Middle (math 48% / reading 46%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 814 students, 34% FRL); Aubrey H S (math 45% / reading 57%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 923 students, 29% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 2643 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 77d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 85% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $304,368 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.78% ✗
Cap rate: 5.09%
Cash-on-cash: -4.30%
DSCR: 0.81
GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $410,990
List price: $389,090
Delta: -5.33%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1213 Boyd St	0.02mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,451 (0%)	4mo	$384,990	$157	87
1109 Clayton St	0.13mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,575 (+5%)	1mo	$436,990	$170	76
1005 Hammy Ln	0.03mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,118 (-14%)	3mo	$372,990	$176	64
11249 Canyon Mine Dr	1.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,511 (+2%)	4mo	$390,000	$155	48
10120 Ore Way	1.46mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,332 (-5%)	16mo	$387,990	$166	34
11501 Woody Creek Trl	1.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,235 (-9%)	11mo	$420,000	$188	32
9913 Silver Nugget St	1.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,074 (-15%)	0mo	$353,990	$171	31
11245 Canyon Mine Dr	1.49mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,073 (-15%)	2mo	$338,000	$163	30
11705 Silver Queen Dr	1.50mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (-17%)	0mo	$349,000	$171	27
9905 Silver Nugget St	1.50mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (-17%)	0mo	$350,990	$172	27
10125 Kayak St	1.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,199 (-10%)	16mo	$392,990	$179	26
10128 Ore Way	1.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,937 (+20%)	15mo	$419,815	$143	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -27.1%
Equity multiple: 0.11×
Total profit: $-96,723
Equity at exit: $58,015

10-year hold

IRR: -41.2%
Equity multiple: -0.38×
Total profit: $-150,263
Equity at exit: $33,641

Cash invested: $108,945 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 13 active · 6 under contract
Months of supply: 26.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $426,990 ($170/sqft)
Median days on market: 129 d
This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -1.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76227

Home prices YoY: -19.0%
Rents YoY: -1.9%
Active inventory: 2643
Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $3,044 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
Tax est. 1.5%: −$486 /mo · $5,836/yr
Insurance: −$162
HOA: −$106
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
Net cashflow: $-390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,538

Max offer price $332,598

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-256	+0% $-390	+5% $-525	+10% $-659
Rent	-10% $-631	-5% $-511	+0% $-390	+5% $-270	+10% $-150
Rate	-1.0pp $-194	-0.5pp $-291	base $-390	+0.5pp $-491	+1.0pp $-594

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $97,272
Closing costs: $11,673
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6429 FM 2931 Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	3035	$4,250	$1.40	139d	1	0.24mi
3712 Maroon Creek Rd Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	3093	$2,750	$0.89	139d	1	1.33mi
3736 Maroon Creek Rd Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2030	$2,195	$1.08	12d	1	1.33mi
3740 Maroon Creek Rd Aubrey, TX	5.0	4.0	2687	$2,500	$0.93	139d	1	1.33mi
11500 Woody Creek Trl Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1999	$2,299	$1.15	76d	1	1.41mi
11424 Woody Creek Trl Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,395	$1.18	48d	1	1.41mi
11424 Woody Creek Trl Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,295	$1.14	12d	1	1.41mi
11441 White River Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2233	$2,550	$1.14	120d	1	1.44mi
10125 Kayak St Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2208	$2,550	$1.15	94d	1	1.46mi
10124 Kayak St Unit NA Krugerville, TX	4.0	3.0	2349	$3,800	$1.62	69d	1	1.47mi
10121 High Grade Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,550	$1.25	59d	1	1.48mi
11609 Silver Queen Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,250	$1.22	39d	1	1.48mi
11441 Silver Queen Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1973	$2,395	$1.21	90d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Builder special listing conditions
Financial info: No second mortgage indicatedLoan type noted as Treat As Clear
HOA & community: Mandatory associationQuarterly association fee (listed as 318)Association includes full use of facilities and management feesHOA managed by First Service Residential

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approximately 20' x 20')Covered parking2-car carport
Security: Smoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectors
Utilities: MUD waterMUD sewerMunicipal Utility District
Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyTwo-storyNew construction (incomplete) built in 2026Not attached to another propertySmart home features
Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acreLocated in the Ribbonwood subdivisionMunicipal Utility District (MUD) water and sewer

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalElectric rangeMicrowaveEat-in kitchen
Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms totalPrimary bedroom located on level 2 with dual sinks, linen closet, and walk-in closetAdditional bedrooms on levels 1 and 2 with walk-in closets
Flooring: CarpetCeramic tileLuxury vinyl plank
Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
Interior features: Decorative lightingDouble vanityEat-in kitchenOpen floorplanSmart home systemWalk-in closetsTwo living areasOne dining areaRoom count of 6Two levels
Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $389,090 Active 154 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $389,090 Active 153 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $389,090 Active 152 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $389,090 Active 151 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $389,090 Active 150 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $389,090 Active 149 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $389,090 Active 148 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $389,090 Active 147 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $389,090 Active 146 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $389,090 Active 145 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $389,090 Active 144 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $389,090 Active 143 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $389,090 Active 142 DOM
2026-09-11

pricedays on market $389,090 Active 141 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $396,090 Active 135 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $396,090 Active 134 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $396,090 Active 132 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $396,090 Active 130 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $396,090 Active 128 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $396,090 Active 127 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $396,090 Active 126 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $396,090 Active 125 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $396,090 Active 124 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $396,090 Active 123 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $396,090 Active 122 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $396,090 Active 121 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $396,090 Active 120 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $396,090 Active 119 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $396,090 Active 118 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $396,090 Active 117 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $396,090 Active 116 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $396,090 Active 115 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $396,090 Active 114 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $396,090 Active 113 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $396,090 Active 112 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $396,090 Active 111 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $396,090 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $396,090 Active 109 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $396,090 Active 108 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $396,090 Active 107 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $396,090 Active 105 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $396,090 Active 104 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $396,090 Active 103 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $396,090 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $396,090 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $396,090 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $396,090 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $396,090 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $396,090 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $396,090 Active 92 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $36,524
− Mortgage interest: −$21,795
− Property taxes: −$5,836
− Insurance: −$1,945
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,922
− Management: −$2,922
− HOA: −$1,272
− Depreciation: −$11,319
Taxable loss: −$11,488

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,757
After-tax cash flow: $-1,928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home in Aubrey, TX is move-in ready with modern finishes and a prime location.

Value-add opportunities

Both Kitchen cabinets — Modern kitchen cabinets enhance aesthetics and functionality ↑
Both Bathroom vanity — Upgraded bathroom vanity improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
Both Landscaping — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jackie Fuller El D TX #865/4,322 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Aubrey Middle D+ TX #424/1,662 Nat'l #4,159/14,009 High Aubrey H S D+ TX #482/1,632 Nat'l #5,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Aubrey ISD
NCES district ID: 4808910
Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income: $77,154
Composite: 46.21/100
National rank: #2492
State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Aubrey

Score: 71/100
State rank: #332
US rank: #7241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
City population: 62,127
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 62,127
Household income: $111,402
Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
Current HPI: 254.2895
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

2026-06-12 Price Changed $403,090 Zillow
2026-06-11 Price Changed $403,250 Zillow
2026-06-11 Price Changed $403,090 Zillow
2026-06-07 Price Changed $403,250 Zillow
2026-06-04 Price Changed $403,090 Zillow
2026-06-03 Price Changed $403,090 NTREIS
2026-05-01 Listed $413,090 Zillow
2026-04-28 Price Changed $413,090 NTREIS
2026-04-22 Listed $413,170 NTREIS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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