17517 W Ventura St · Surprise, AZ 85388

$337,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,454 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 233 Days on market

Built 2004 5,886 sqft lot $232/sqft · 8% below area Est $367k · 8% under $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

Key facts

• Double closets
• Fenced in backyard
• Covered patio

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DOUBLE CLOSETS
• LOW MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED IN BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $337k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-414 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (37.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunset Hills Elementary (math 37% / reading 48%, grade F, #367 of 1,109 statewide, top 33%, 969 students, 42% FRL); Shadow Ridge High School (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #88 of 381 statewide, top 24%, 2,323 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $958 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,429 (37.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.26%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $367,293
• List price: $337,000
• Delta: -8.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17517 W Ventura St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,454 (0%)	1mo	$328,000	$226	100
17755 W Hearn Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,403 (-4%)	2mo	$367,000	$262	79
17545 W Watson Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,295 (-11%)	0mo	$325,000	$251	78
17765 W Ventura St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,353 (-7%)	2mo	$339,900	$251	74
17449 W Calavar Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,265 (-13%)	3mo	$347,000	$274	72
17734 W Redfield Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+11%)	1mo	$351,000	$217	70
17737 W Mandalay Ln	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,495 (+3%)	4mo	$330,000	$221	70
14723 N 177th Ave	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,506 (+4%)	3mo	$319,000	$212	67
17630 W Crocus Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,655 (+14%)	0mo	$435,000	$263	66
17740 W Redfield Rd	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,615 (+11%)	1mo	$355,000	$220	65
17769 W Woodrow Ln	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,499 (+3%)	4mo	$322,500	$215	63
15039 N 172nd Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,502 (+3%)	0mo	$388,000	$258	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-38,007
• Equity at exit: $102,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-42,141
• Equity at exit: $127,330

Cash invested: $94,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,124 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,767
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,404/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,648

Max offer price $263,948

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-223	-5% $-318	+0% $-414	+5% $-509	+10% $-604
Rent	-10% $-581	-5% $-497	+0% $-414	+5% $-330	+10% $-246
Rate	-1.0pp $-244	-0.5pp $-328	base $-414	+0.5pp $-501	+1.0pp $-590

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,250
• Closing costs: $10,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17520 W Watson Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1265	$1,800	$1.42	7d	1	0.09mi
17715 W Redfield Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,000	$1.48	0d	1	0.19mi
17618 W Mandalay Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,795	$1.14	45d	1	0.40mi
17863 W Calavar Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,750	$1.08	45d	1	0.43mi
17716 W Mandalay Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1566	$1,795	$1.15	0d	1	0.46mi
14743 N 177th Ave Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.5	1362	$1,695	$1.24	23d	1	0.49mi
17746 W Banff Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,785	$1.19	45d	1	0.53mi
17730 W Banff Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1839	$2,495	$1.36	26d	1	0.53mi
17724 W Woodrow Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,825	$1.41	0d	1	0.58mi
14916 N 177th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,849	$1.42	6d	1	0.60mi
14945 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1699	$2,099	$1.24	7d	1	0.66mi
13500 N Cotton Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0	1134	$1,645	$1.45	26d	388	0.67mi
17180 W Sweetwater Ave Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,925	$2.35	0d	26	0.70mi
17218 W Country Gables Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,800	$1.20	13d	1	0.75mi
17938 W Port Royale Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1775	$2,050	$1.15	0d	1	0.84mi
17923 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,900	$1.18	45d	1	0.88mi
17862 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1766	$2,600	$1.47	20d	1	0.92mi
17176 W Corrine Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1685	$2,000	$1.19	23d	1	0.96mi
17190 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,699	$1.13	25d	1	1.03mi
17867 W Westpark Blvd Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1767	$3,500	$1.98	45d	1	1.12mi
12350 N Cotton Ln Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,479	$2.54	0d	1	1.16mi
17009 W Marconi Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,862	$1.31	45d	1	1.29mi
17244 W Vacaville St Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1530	$2,995	$1.96	26d	1	1.29mi
17714 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,485	$1.06	20d	1	1.31mi
17722 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,185	$1.24	3d	1	1.31mi
15927 N 171st Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1670	$3,200	$1.92	45d	1	1.31mi
17794 W Rimrock St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,800	$1.28	45d	1	1.37mi
18184 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1682	$1,895	$1.13	26d	1	1.39mi
16166 N 170th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,775	$1.30	26d	1	1.44mi
12065 N 168th Ln Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,649	$2.01	0d	19	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

2. 2026-04-23
   price $337,000 530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

3. 2026-04-01
   status Active 530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

4. 2026-03-26
   status Pending 530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

5. 2026-03-12
   price $344,000 530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

6. 2026-02-19
   price $350,000 530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

7. 2026-01-28
   status Active 530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

8. 2026-01-23
   historical 530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

9. 2026-01-21
   status Active 530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

10. 2026-01-09
    historical 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

11. 2025-12-26
    status Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

12. 2025-12-10
    historical 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

13. 2025-11-13
    price $357,000 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

14. 2025-10-30
    price $360,000 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

15. 2025-10-02
    price $365,000 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

16. 2025-09-18
    price $367,000 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

17. 2025-09-04
    price $372,000 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

18. 2025-08-15
    listed $377,000 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained property, boasting a neutral color paint scheme that complements the fresh interior paint. The kitchen is a chef's dream with all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features double closets. The exterior of the home is just as impressive with low maintenance landscaping, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a fenced in backyard for added privacy. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a move-in ready property.. 100-Day Home Warranty coverage available at closing

19. 2025-07-28
    soldstatus $319,300
20. 2009-02-02
    soldstatus $100,000 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Fabulous starter home! Three bedrooms plus a den, maple cabinets, granite counter tops and black appliances. New carpet is currently being installed! Short Sale, please allow sufficient time for lender approval.

21. 2009-02-02
    soldstatus $100,000

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Fabulous starter home! Three bedrooms plus a den, maple cabinets, granite counter tops and black appliances. New carpet is currently being installed! Short Sale, please allow sufficient time for lender approval.

22. 2008-09-30
    historical 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Fabulous starter home! Three bedrooms plus a den, maple cabinets, granite counter tops and black appliances. New carpet is currently being installed! Short Sale, please allow sufficient time for lender approval.

23. 2008-09-15
    listed $89,900 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Fabulous starter home! Three bedrooms plus a den, maple cabinets, granite counter tops and black appliances. New carpet is currently being installed! Short Sale, please allow sufficient time for lender approval.

24. 2005-02-23
    soldstatus $183,400
25. 2005-02-14
    soldstatus $183,400
26. 2005-01-10
    soldstatus $134,403
27. 2005-01-06
    historical
28. 2005-01-05
    listed $178,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,404 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,224 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: +$820/yr (+$68/mo · 58.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,877
• − Property taxes: −$1,404
• − Insurance: −$1,685
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,039
• − Management: −$2,039
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$9,804
• Taxable loss: −$11,161
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,679
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+89.3% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $337,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $344,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-12-26 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $357,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $360,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $365,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $367,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $372,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $377,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $319,300 Public Records
• 2009-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2009-02-02 Sold (MLS) $100,000 ARMLS
• 2008-09-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-09-15 Listed $89,900 ARMLS
• 2005-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $183,400 Public Records
• 2005-02-14 Sold (MLS) $183,400 ARMLS
• 2005-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $134,403 Public Records
• 2005-01-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-01-05 Listed $178,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,404 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.