12506 Ashford Meadow Dr Unit B · Houston, TX 77082

$85,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,037 sqft · Condo · 38 Days on market

Built 1981 Good condition $82/sqft · 32% below area Est $125k · 32% under $360/mo HOA · 28% of rent ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Great location, minutes to Beltway 8, Westheimer, and I-10. Hurry, this wont last long!

Key facts

• $360 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $360; HOA managed by Genesis Community Management; HOA covers common areas, structure maintenance, and trash

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story structure (listed as 1 story); Entry level: slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 1981; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second floor) — 13 x 12; Bedroom (second floor) — 11 x 10
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom (second floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-372 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $31k (63.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (63.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: O'Donnell Middle (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 1,230 students, 89% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $31,201 (63.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 63% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.76%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,785
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -31.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.21% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -50.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-37,812
• Equity at exit: $15,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -83.4%
• Equity multiple: -2.08×
• Total profit: $-73,222
• Equity at exit: $12,678

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77082

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,269 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$360
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,739

Max offer price $31,201

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12502 Ashford Meadow Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	24d	1	0.01mi
12502 Ashford Meadow Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1057	$1,200	$1.14	44d	1	0.01mi
12507 Ashford Meadow Dr Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	5d	1	0.05mi
2800 S Dairy Ashford Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	859	$1,432	$1.67	2d	29	0.09mi
2806 S Dairy Ashford Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,134	$1.12	44d	1	0.10mi
12548 Oxford Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	770	$1,165	$1.51	24d	1	0.11mi
12612 Ashford Creek Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,160	$1.05	21d	1	0.15mi
12612 Ashford Creek Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,421	$1.26	24d	1	0.15mi
12436 Oxford Park Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,387	$1.35	24d	1	0.18mi
12662 Ashford Meadow Dr Apt C Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,200	$1.19	7d	1	0.19mi
12430 Oxford Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	747	$1,556	$2.08	2d	18	0.23mi
2920 Shadowbriar Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,366	$1.48	1d	36	0.34mi
2840 Shadowbriar Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$1,522	$1.49	3d	21	0.38mi
12400 Overbrook Ln Unit 12400 Overbrook Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1157	$1,450	$1.25	44d	1	0.39mi
2846 Shadowbriar Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,876	$1.44	44d	1	0.44mi
12366 Richmond Ave Unit 2115 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1153	$1,424	$1.24	44d	1	0.46mi
3298 S Dairy Ashford Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,359	$1.33	19d	1	0.46mi
12200 Overbrook Ln Unit 12251 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	803	$914	$1.14	44d	1	0.50mi
12200 Overbrook Ln Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	974	$980	$1.01	5d	1	0.50mi
12200 Overbrook Ln Unit 12221 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	803	$930	$1.16	15d	1	0.50mi
12200 Overbrook Ln Unit 12221 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	803	$892	$1.11	3d	1	0.50mi
12200 Overbrook Ln Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	974	$980	$1.01	8d	1	0.50mi
12200 Overbrook Ln Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	803	$895	$1.11	5d	1	0.50mi
12200 Overbrook Ln Unit 324 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	803	$895	$1.11	8d	1	0.50mi
12200 Overbrook Ln Unit 1047 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	803	$934	$1.16	3d	1	0.50mi
12200 Overbrook Ln Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	974	$972	$1.00	3d	1	0.50mi
12360 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1119	$1,602	$1.43	2d	56	0.51mi
12200 Overbrook Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	803	$1,450	$1.81	13d	3	0.56mi
2400 Briarwest Blvd Unit 2457 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	899	$1,116	$1.24	3d	1	0.63mi
2400 Briarwest Blvd Unit 2433 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,547	$1.34	3d	1	0.63mi
2400 Briarwest Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,235	$1.24	24d	1	0.67mi
2400 Briarwest Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	870	$1,172	$1.35	2d	109	0.67mi
2400 Briarwest Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,235	$1.24	44d	1	0.67mi
13099 Westheimer Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1081	$1,467	$1.36	3d	44	0.73mi
2221 Avenida La Quinta St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	703	$990	$1.41	22d	1	0.85mi
2221 Avenida La Quinta St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	703	$990	$1.41	44d	1	0.85mi
2221 Avenida La Quinta St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$1,225	$1.26	24d	1	0.85mi
13105 1/2 Westheimer Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,857	$1.28	44d	1	0.85mi
2475 Gray Falls Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	798	$1,418	$1.78	2d	34	0.86mi
13098 Westheimer Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$1,960	$1.87	11d	4	0.86mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $360 · $4,320/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    listed $85,000 Active 87-char remark
15. 2024-05-06
    historical
16. 2024-03-26
    price $109,999
17. 2024-01-09
    price $110,000
18. 2023-10-20
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$5,544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,218
• − Management: −$1,218
• − HOA: −$4,320
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable loss: −$5,585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,341
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained condo is in good condition with a good location, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts more renters
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and adds value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts more renters ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and adds value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alief ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,775
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8391
• State rank: #717 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 59,412
• Household income: $62,455
• Rent vs Own: 63.6% rent · 36.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3722.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% Hispanic / Latino 27% White 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Armenian 2% Arab 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 4% Arabic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.21%
• Current HPI: 237.2183
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.62%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-29.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-26 Price Changed $109,999 HARMLS
• 2024-01-09 Price Changed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-20 Listed $120,000 HARMLS