5109 Gray Dr · Horn Lake, MS 38637

$190,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1975 0.33 ac lot Est $165k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this cute corner lot home all ONE level! New paint and LVP flooring throughout. Large family room with fireplace. Eat-In kitchen. Large walk in pantry and and separate laundry room. Extra family/bonus room. Huge corner lot with fenced backyard. Storage building remains. Come see it today!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• New dishwasher
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• NEW DISHWASHER
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• EXTENDED BACKYARD PATIO
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Exterior storage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family house; One level; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Slab foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Built per public records
• Exterior features: Private yard; Patio; Back yard fencing; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free‑standing electric range; Microwave; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; Total of 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Pantry; Storage; Walk-in closet(s); Soaking tub; Has fireplace (gas log in living room)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($383/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#196 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Cormorant Elementary (math 48% / reading 55%, grade C-, #56 of 375 statewide, top 15%, 647 students, 100% FRL); Lake Cormorant Middle (math 51% / reading 30%, grade F, #60 of 179 statewide, top 37%, 764 students, 100% FRL); Lake Cormorant High (math 29% / reading 42%, grade F, #66 of 197 statewide, top 34%, 969 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,421 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,736
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5722 Chickasaw Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,076 (+2%)	1mo	$189,000	$176	90
5820 Gray Cv	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,052 (-0%)	14mo	$179,999	$171	83
5770 Chickasaw Dr	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,119 (+6%)	6mo	$175,000	$156	79
5161 Crestwood Cv	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,157 (+10%)	10mo	$154,900	$134	71
5205 Gray Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,183 (+12%)	9mo	$164,900	$139	68
5654 Crestwood Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,179 (+12%)	12mo	$184,980	$157	66
5491 Adams Cir	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-1%)	16mo	$148,900	$142	66
5951 Adams Cir	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,030 (-2%)	12mo	$179,900	$175	66
5089 Woody Cv	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,202 (+14%)	3mo	$149,900	$125	65
5020 Gray Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,203 (+14%)	15mo	$140,000	$116	60
5771 Ashford Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5	967 (-8%)	16mo	$189,000	$195	38
5605 Choctaw Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+15%)	10mo	$120,000	$99	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-33,163
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-43,314
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38637

• Home prices YoY: -13.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,474 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $686/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,434

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $86	+0% $32	+5% $-22	+10% $-76
Rent	-10% $-85	-5% $-26	+0% $32	+5% $90	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $80	base $32	+0.5pp $-17	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5108 Gray Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,325	$1.15	24d	1	0.05mi
5108 Gray Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,325	$1.15	15d	1	0.05mi
5840 Gray Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,295	$1.21	44d	1	0.14mi
5229 Nail Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	912	$1,235	$1.35	24d	1	0.29mi
5318 Haynes Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,583	$1.32	44d	1	0.33mi
4506 Shadow Hollow Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,645	$1.27	2d	1	0.98mi
6392 Manchester Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,715	$1.27	2d	1	1.02mi
4355 Shadow Ridge Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,760	$1.30	5d	1	1.17mi
6270 Jamestown Ave Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,523	$1.45	44d	1	1.28mi
3780 Southbrook Dr Horn Lake, MS	4.0	2.0	1444	$1,550	$1.07	5d	1	1.39mi
6225 Sandhurst Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 614-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $190,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $686 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,501 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$815/yr (+$68/mo · 118.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$686
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,415
• − Management: −$1,415
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,946
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$707
• After-tax cash flow: $1,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Horn Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #17977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horn Lake, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 26,647
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 26,647
• Household income: $53,311
• Rent vs Own: 41.9% rent · 58.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1052.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 44% White 42% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.08%
• Current HPI: 206.5542
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+123.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $190,000 MLSU
• 2024-05-06 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2024-04-01 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-03-27 Listed $169,900 MLSU
• 2019-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-04-15 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2019-03-25 Listed $82,500 MLSU
• 2014-11-24 Sold (MLS) — Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2014-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-11-19 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2014-10-21 Delisted — Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2014-05-19 Listed $76,500 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2014-05-17 Listed $76,500 MLSU
• 2009-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-30 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2006-07-20 Listed $72,900 MLSU
• 2006-07-18 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2005-11-12 Listed $85,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $686 · -18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.