9 De Witt Ave · Asbury Park, NJ 07712

$279,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 663 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1946 2,613 sqft lot Est $302k · 7% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking to buy or invest in Asbury for under 300k? Search no further than this 2BR 1 bath home on a quiet dead-end street! Currently occupied by a long term tenant that would love to stay. This cozy home has a full basement for add'l space/storage, fenced yard. A great opportunity!

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Full basement
• 2,613 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• FENCED YARD
• QUIET DEAD-END STREET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 0.8% in Asbury Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in NJ, #4,521 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, crime A-, health & safety B+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Asbury Park School District (suburban): math 3% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #470 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Martin Luther King Upper Elementary School (math 2% / reading 15%, grade F, #428 of 431 statewide, top 99%, 267 students, 58% FRL); Asbury Park High School (math 5% / reading 26%, grade F, #385 of 399 statewide, top 96%, 607 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 79% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 277 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.59%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $302,328
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 De Witt Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	663 (0%)	0mo	$265,000	$400	100
207 Drummond Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0	600 (-10%)	8mo	$225,000	$375	67
1612 Bangs Ave	0.39mi	2/1.0	704 (+6%)	14mo	$321,000	$456	60
128 Broadway	0.60mi	2/1.0	700 (+6%)	6mo	$625,000	$893	58
154 Hawthorne Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0	636 (-4%)	14mo	$282,000	$443	50
503 1/2 Park Pl Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	710 (+7%)	18mo	$580,000	$817	39
124 Abbott Ave	0.62mi	1/1.0 (-1)	579 (-13%)	17mo	$511,000	$883	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-36,411
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-25,268
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07712

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,630 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$324 /mo · $3,889/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,416

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $328	-5% $249	+0% $169	+5% $90	+10% $11
Rent	-10% $-38	-5% $65	+0% $169	+5% $273	+10% $377
Rate	-1.0pp $310	-0.5pp $241	base $169	+0.5pp $97	+1.0pp $23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
614 Prospect Ave Unit 2 Asbury Park, NJ	2.0	1.0	750	$2,600	$3.47	26d	1	0.55mi
315 Neptune Blvd Apt 1 Neptune City, NJ	1.0	1.0	450	$2,500	$5.56	45d	1	0.66mi
527 Bangs Ave Asbury Park, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	908	$4,200	$4.63	9d	5	0.78mi
610 Sewall Ave Asbury Park, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	869	$2,803	$3.23	1d	7	0.81mi
1217 Ocean Ave Unit B6 Bradley Beach, NJ	1.0	1.0	730	$2,850	$3.90	4d	1	1.06mi
1217 Ocean Ave Unit B6 Bradley Beach, NJ	1.0	1.0	731	$2,850	$3.90	9d	1	1.06mi
1010 Grand Ave Unit C7 Asbury Park, NJ	1.0	1.0	675	$2,300	$3.41	26d	1	1.11mi
308 W Sylvania Ave Neptune, NJ	1.0	1.0	700	$1,825	$2.61	15d	1	1.19mi
308 W Sylvania Ave Neptune, NJ	1.0	1.0	700	$1,825	$2.61	9d	1	1.19mi
212 3rd Ave Unit A3 Asbury Park, NJ	1.0	1.0	624	$2,175	$3.49	1d	1	1.23mi
311 4th Ave #101 Asbury Park, NJ	1.0	1.0	442	$5,000	$11.31	1d	1	1.25mi
1150 Kingsley St Asbury Park, NJ	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.5	1526	$5,485	$3.59	0d	19	1.30mi
402 Sixth Ave Unit 2 Asbury Park, NJ	1.0	1.0	585	$1,995	$3.41	6d	1	1.37mi
402 Sixth Ave Apt 18 Asbury Park, NJ	1.0	1.0	495	$1,895	$3.83	6d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   price $279,900
3. 2025-12-18
   listed $295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,889 · $324/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,429 · $452/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,540/yr (+$128/mo · 39.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$3,889
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,525
• − Management: −$2,525
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$2,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$623
• After-tax cash flow: $2,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Asbury Park School District
• NCES district ID: 3400930
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,895
• Composite: 8.54/100
• National rank: #9903
• State rank: #470 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Asbury Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4521

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B- Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C Housing C+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Asbury Park, NJ
• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 40,194
• Household income: $96,725
• Rent vs Own: 51.8% rent · 48.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2655.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Hispanic 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -451.85%
• Current HPI: 345.7119
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $279,900 MOMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $295,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,889 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.