3495 Center Rd · Poland, OH 44514

$200,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,660 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1830 1.00 ac lot ↓ 49% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home is in the Process of a Re-Plat. Selling as in present condition.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1830

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-617/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.4% in Poland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in OH, #1,108 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Poland Local (suburban): math 70% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #94 of 656 in OH (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1830 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $176,102 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1830 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.10%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $484,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6873 Luteran Ln	0.54mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,666 (+0%)	2mo	$465,000	$174	64
3690 St James Way	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,697 (+1%)	8mo	$580,000	$215	62
3081 Heatherbrae Dr	0.48mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,500 (-6%)	1mo	$390,000	$156	61
6303 Clingan Rd	0.34mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,799 (+5%)	10mo	$260,000	$93	60
3327 Hampton Hall	0.23mi	4/3.0	3,000 (+13%)	8mo	$699,999	$233	60
6675 Luteran Ln	0.41mi	4/4.0	2,654 (-0%)	20mo	$539,000	$203	58
7110 Garden Pl Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5	2,800 (+5%)	0mo	$885,000	$316	57
6829 Katahdin Dr	0.54mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,772 (+4%)	3mo	$385,000	$139	56
3655 Saint James Way	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,864 (+8%)	3mo	$520,000	$182	51
6869 Boardwalk Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	3,043 (+14%)	6mo	$600,000	$197	44
3022 Heatherbrae Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,320 (-13%)	10mo	$307,000	$132	41
237 Evergreen Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,465 (-7%)	18mo	$319,900	$130	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-35,620
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-34,976
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44514

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,726/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,826

Max offer price $190,915

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   listed $200,000 Active
3. 2023-08-08
   historical
4. 2022-11-13
   price $295,000
5. 2022-09-26
   listed $395,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,726 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,726 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,726
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,996
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$959
• After-tax cash flow: $342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poland Local
• NCES district ID: 3904834
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,236
• Composite: 64.21/100
• National rank: #564
• State rank: #94 of 656 in OH

Livability — Poland

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mahoning County · 84,956 people
• City population: 23,917
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 23,917
• Household income: $79,808
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 411.0

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.78%
• Current HPI: 210.5511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-49.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-03-27 Listed $200,000 MLSNOW
• 2023-08-08 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2022-11-13 Price Changed $295,000 MLSNOW
• 2022-09-26 Listed $395,000 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,726 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.