5900 Mayflower Way · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$365,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,589 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 245 Days on market

Built 2021 5,662 sqft lot Est $437k · 16% under $474/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

$3000 TOWARDS CLOSING COSTS for an accepted offer by July 15th. BREATHTAKING LAKE & GOLF COURSE VIEWS! Welcome to your Florida dream home in the 55+ community of Del Webb Naples. Perfectly situated on a premium lot, this impeccably maintained CASCADIA VILLA (end unit) offers captivating views of both the LAKE and the 2nd FAIRWAY of Panther Run Golf Course—all from your EXTENDED SCREENED LANAI with a beautiful PICTURE-FRAME screen design. You’ll love relaxing on the PRIVATE lanai while taking in the SUNRISE - the perfect start to every day in paradise. Inside, you’ll find 2 bedrooms plus a den and 2 full baths, thoughtfully designed for both comfort and style. The op

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Lake views
• Golf course views

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• EXTENDED SCREENED LANAI
• PRIVATE LANAI
• TILE FLOORING THROUGHOUT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual recurring fees: $5,684; Total one-time fees: $1,825; One-time special assessment fee: $1,375; One-time other fee: $250
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly HOA dues (master): $203; Quarterly HOA dues: $1,218.15; Professional management; HOA maintenance covers cable, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, sewer, street maintenance, street lights, recreation facilities, reserves, legal/accounting, manager; Community amenities include: clubhouse, community pool and spa/hot tub, exercise room, tennis, pickleball, bocce court, putting green, golf course (non-equity), bike/jog paths, sidewalks, dog park, playground, basketball, volleyball, BBQ/picnic area, restaurant, shopping, library, beauty salon, billiards, hobby room, community room, underground utilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Security: Gated community; Impact-resistant doors and windows; Impact-resistant windows
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Attached villa; Single-story; Rear exposure faces east; Residential property in the Ave Maria community; Gated community
• Construction: Built in 2021; Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Automatic sprinkler system; Golf course frontage; Lake waterfront view; Golf course and water views; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Electric cooktop; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator/freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms plus den; First-floor bedroom; Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable pre-wiring; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet(s); Window coverings; Den / study; Great room; Guest room; Guest bath; Screened lanai/porch; Dining area (family)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer and dryer included; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-454 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,281/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $284,799 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.33%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $436,975
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6373 Liberty St	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,674 (+5%)	11mo	$460,000	$275	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-56,985
• Equity at exit: $87,262

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-57,109
• Equity at exit: $90,914

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,281 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$506 /mo · $6,069/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$474
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $-454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,856

Max offer price $284,799

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-247	-5% $-351	+0% $-454	+5% $-557	+10% $-661
Rent	-10% $-713	-5% $-584	+0% $-454	+5% $-324	+10% $-195
Rate	-1.0pp $-270	-0.5pp $-361	base $-454	+0.5pp $-549	+1.0pp $-645

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5935 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$2,550	$1.75	24d	1	0.08mi
5988 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1602	$5,200	$3.25	24d	1	0.13mi
5769 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$4,000	$2.57	24d	1	0.21mi
5728 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2087	$2,650	$1.27	24d	1	0.24mi
5709 Constitution St Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1900	$2,400	$1.26	24d	1	0.30mi
5705 Mayflower Way #1407 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1536	$2,250	$1.46	24d	1	0.31mi
5697 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1538	$2,495	$1.62	24d	1	0.38mi
5690 Mayflower Way #601 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$5,500	$3.03	24d	1	0.44mi
5690 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$3,295	$1.82	24d	1	0.44mi
6421 Liberty St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1922	$5,800	$3.02	24d	1	0.53mi
6441 Liberty St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1685	$5,795	$3.44	24d	1	0.55mi
5309 Beckton Rd Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,395	$1.17	24d	1	0.85mi
6168 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$5,495	$3.50	14d	1	0.85mi
6189 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$6,295	$4.04	24d	1	0.91mi
6205 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$5,000	$3.21	24d	1	0.94mi
5657 Agostino Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1981	$2,400	$1.21	14d	1	0.99mi
5661 Agostino Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,350	$1.07	14d	1	0.99mi
5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$10,995	$5.94	24d	1	1.04mi
8010 Helena Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$2,500	$1.61	22d	1	1.06mi
5474 Cassidy Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2032	$2,650	$1.30	24d	1	1.07mi
5573 Cobalto Way Unit 5573 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1921	$2,400	$1.25	14d	1	1.08mi
5573 Cobalto Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1921	$2,400	$1.25	14d	1	1.08mi
5374 Ferris Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,350	$1.22	24d	1	1.09mi
5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,695	$2.00	22d	1	1.11mi
5639 Argento Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,500	$1.79	24d	1	1.16mi
5574 Cassidy Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,250	$1.38	22d	1	1.16mi
5476 Katia Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1983	$4,300	$2.17	24d	1	1.18mi
5688 Cassidy Ln Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	14d	1	1.19mi
5716 Cassidy Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,300	$1.19	24d	1	1.20mi
6012 Ellerston WAY #1121 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$6,295	$2.98	24d	1	1.20mi
6039 Ellerston WAY #2017 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$6,295	$4.65	24d	1	1.20mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4217 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	24d	1	1.20mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4316 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,495	$4.76	24d	1	1.20mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4223 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,395	$2.08	24d	1	1.20mi
5715 Double Eagle Cir #4416 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,100	$1.82	24d	1	1.20mi
5835 Double Eagle CIR #4714 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,895	$1.69	24d	1	1.20mi
5835 Double Eagle Cir #4726 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,095	$1.82	14d	1	1.20mi
5710 Melbourne Ct #6511 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	24d	1	1.20mi
5704 Melbourne Ct #6712 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	24d	1	1.20mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4338 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	24d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $474 · $5,688/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 245 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $365,000 Active 237 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $365,000 Active 236 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $365,000 Active 235 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $365,000 Active 234 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $365,000 Active 230 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,000 Active 229 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 228 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 227 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $365,000 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-04-15
    price $365,000
15. 2026-02-07
    price $385,900
16. 2025-10-16
    listed $399,000 Active
17. 2020-11-08
    price $288,580
18. 2020-10-27
    price $285,290

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,069 · $506/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,069 · $506/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$6,069
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,150
• − Management: −$3,150
• − HOA: −$5,688
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$11,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,778
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,670/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+27.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $365,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $385,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $399,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2020-11-08 Price Changed $288,580 BEARMLS
• 2020-10-27 Price Changed $285,290 BEARMLS

Property tax history

+35.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,069 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.