623 Belfast St · Lewisburg, TN 37091

$289,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1945 0.49 ac lot $230/sqft · 19% above area Est $245k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute, remodeled 3BR 2BA home. Sitting on almost a half acre lot there is ample room for outdoor activities and space for outbuildings. Easy access to downtown, shopping, restaurants, and grocery stores. This like new home is ready for its new owner's.

Key facts

• 0.49 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1945

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $290k).
• Recommended offer: $273k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.8% in Lewisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#284 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 31% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #58 of 139 in TN (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 400 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marshall County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $290k implies a 432% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.43%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,986
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: 18.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 East Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,256 (-0%)	7mo	$150,000	$119	84
410 Springplace Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-5%)	13mo	$259,900	$217	66
330 Hickory Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-1%)	5mo	$265,000	$212	64
956 E Commerce St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,244 (-1%)	12mo	$225,000	$181	61
411 Elm Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-5%)	3mo	$289,000	$241	55
946 E Commerce St	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,230 (-2%)	16mo	$193,000	$157	51
930 Oak St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,361 (+8%)	9mo	$240,000	$176	51
131 Isabela Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,172 (-7%)	3mo	$269,900	$230	49
371 Elm Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-5%)	8mo	$275,000	$229	48
140 Coco Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-5%)	13mo	$250,000	$208	48
354 Baxter Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,226 (-3%)	15mo	$270,000	$220	47
141 Isabela Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,172 (-7%)	6mo	$259,900	$222	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $40,904
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $148,447
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37091

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $858/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$823
• Net cashflow: $1,382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,168

Max offer price $289,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,546	-5% $1,464	+0% $1,382	+5% $1,300	+10% $1,218
Rent	-10% $1,072	-5% $1,227	+0% $1,382	+5% $1,536	+10% $1,691
Rate	-1.0pp $1,528	-0.5pp $1,455	base $1,382	+0.5pp $1,307	+1.0pp $1,230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
328 E Church St Lewisburg, TN	2.0	2.0	1000	$4,000	$4.00	45d	1	0.62mi
335 E Hill Ave Lewisburg, TN	3.0	2.0	1800	$5,000	$2.78	45d	1	0.68mi
423 4th Ave N Lewisburg, TN	2.0	1.0	1086	$790	$0.73	25d	1	1.00mi
566 1st Ave N Lewisburg, TN	2.0	1.0	950	$2,250	$2.37	45d	1	1.02mi
174 Mackenzie Way Lewisburg, TN	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,600	$1.09	25d	1	1.26mi
174 Mackenzie Way Lewisburg, TN	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,600	$1.09	22d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,900 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,900 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 280-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,900 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $289,900 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,999 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,999 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,999 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    listed $299,999 Active 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Cute, remodeled 3BR 2BA home. Sitting on almost a half acre lot there is ample room for outdoor activities and space for outbuildings. Easy access to downtown, shopping, restaurants, and grocery stores. This like new home is ready for its new owner's.

16. 2026-03-30
    historical $299,999 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Cute, remodeled 3BR 2BA home. Sitting on almost a half acre lot there is ample room for outdoor activities and space for outbuildings. Easy access to downtown, shopping, restaurants, and grocery stores. This like new home is ready for its new owner's.

17. 2017-01-19
    soldstatus $54,500 Closed 61-char remark

    Show marketing remark (61 chars)

    Affordable home that could use a few little cosmetic touches.

18. 2017-01-17
    status Pending 61-char remark

    Show marketing remark (61 chars)

    Affordable home that could use a few little cosmetic touches.

19. 2017-01-04
    listed $59,900 Active 61-char remark

    Show marketing remark (61 chars)

    Affordable home that could use a few little cosmetic touches.

20. 2003-10-18
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $858 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,058 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,200/yr (+$100/mo · 139.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$858
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,760
• − Management: −$3,760
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable income: $12,501
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,000
• After-tax cash flow: $13,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall County
• NCES district ID: 4702670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,058
• Composite: 25.56/100
• National rank: #7426
• State rank: #58 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lewisburg

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #20031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lewisburg, TN
• Population (ZIP): 23,991

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,222 people
• By 2030: 33,867 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 34,743 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 34,954 · +5.2%
• By 2075: 34,652 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 31,862 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.6) · D 21.2% · R 77.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -39.6pp · 2024: -56.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.6 2020: R+50.0 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+39.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.86%
• Current HPI: 350.5306
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+757.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $299,999 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Coming Soon $299,999 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-19 Sold (MLS) $54,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-17 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-04 Listed $59,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $858 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.