7463 Morningside Dr · Panama City, FL 32404

$264,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,427 sqft · Land · 124 Days on market

Built 2026 7,100 sqft lot $186/sqft · 12% below area Est $300k · 12% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 7463 Morningside Dr. The Celeste floor plan is a 3-bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1,427 square feet open concept home. As you enter, you will notice the living room as the focal point of the home as it opens to the kitchen, hallway, and primary bedroom. The main areas are made with beautiful EVP flooring and carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has granite countertops and shiny stainless-steel appliances including a stove, microwave, and dishwasher. The bathroom also has granite countertops and EVP flooring, and the primary bathroom features a double vanity while the guest bathroom features a single vanity. Like all homes in Morningside, the Celeste includes a Home is Connected smart home technology package which allows you to control your home with your smart device while near or away. On the outside you will see durable vinyl siding and the spacious 2 car garage. Each home has dimensional shingles with a 30-year warranty. Each yard is fully sodded and has plenty of room to enjoy activities with your family or friends. Whatever home you're looking for, you will find one at Morningside. Schedule a tour to see this beautiful floor plan.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Durable vinyl siding
• Fully sodded yard

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT HOME
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DOUBLE VANITY
• DURABLE VINYL SIDING
• FULLY SODDED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-893/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tommy Smith Elementary School (math 46% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 639 students, 53% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); A. Crawford Mosley High School (math 51% / reading 55%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,901 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 983 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,435 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,665
• List price: $264,900
• Delta: -11.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-51,311
• Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-65,212
• Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 983
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,894 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $856/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,988

Max offer price $251,761

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $1	+0% $-74	+5% $-149	+10% $-224
Rent	-10% $-224	-5% $-149	+0% $-74	+5% $0	+10% $75
Rate	-1.0pp $59	-0.5pp $-7	base $-74	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,900 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on market $264,900 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   price $259,900 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,900 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $245,900 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,900 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $245,900 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $245,900 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-09
    price $245,900 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,900 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $259,900 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-06-05
    days on market $254,900 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,900 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,900 Active 105 DOM
18. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,900 Active 104 DOM
19. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,900 Active 103 DOM
20. 2026-05-30
    days on market $254,900 Active 102 DOM
21. 2026-04-27
    price $249,900 1153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1153 chars)

    Welcome to 7463 Morningside Dr. The Celeste floor plan is a 3-bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1,427 square feet open concept home. As you enter, you will notice the living room as the focal point of the home as it opens to the kitchen, hallway, and primary bedroom. The main areas are made with beautiful EVP flooring and carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has granite countertops and shiny stainless-steel appliances including a stove, microwave, and dishwasher. The bathroom also has granite countertops and EVP flooring, and the primary bathroom features a double vanity while the guest bathroom features a single vanity. Like all homes in Morningside, the Celeste includes a Home is Connected smart home technology package which allows you to control your home with your smart device while near or away. On the outside you will see durable vinyl siding and the spacious 2 car garage. Each home has dimensional shingles with a 30-year warranty. Each yard is fully sodded and has plenty of room to enjoy activities with your family or friends. Whatever home you're looking for, you will find one at Morningside. Schedule a tour to see this beautiful floor plan.

22. 2026-04-21
    price $259,900 1153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1153 chars)

    Welcome to 7463 Morningside Dr. The Celeste floor plan is a 3-bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1,427 square feet open concept home. As you enter, you will notice the living room as the focal point of the home as it opens to the kitchen, hallway, and primary bedroom. The main areas are made with beautiful EVP flooring and carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has granite countertops and shiny stainless-steel appliances including a stove, microwave, and dishwasher. The bathroom also has granite countertops and EVP flooring, and the primary bathroom features a double vanity while the guest bathroom features a single vanity. Like all homes in Morningside, the Celeste includes a Home is Connected smart home technology package which allows you to control your home with your smart device while near or away. On the outside you will see durable vinyl siding and the spacious 2 car garage. Each home has dimensional shingles with a 30-year warranty. Each yard is fully sodded and has plenty of room to enjoy activities with your family or friends. Whatever home you're looking for, you will find one at Morningside. Schedule a tour to see this beautiful floor plan.

23. 2026-04-20
    price $250,500 1153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1153 chars)

    Welcome to 7463 Morningside Dr. The Celeste floor plan is a 3-bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1,427 square feet open concept home. As you enter, you will notice the living room as the focal point of the home as it opens to the kitchen, hallway, and primary bedroom. The main areas are made with beautiful EVP flooring and carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has granite countertops and shiny stainless-steel appliances including a stove, microwave, and dishwasher. The bathroom also has granite countertops and EVP flooring, and the primary bathroom features a double vanity while the guest bathroom features a single vanity. Like all homes in Morningside, the Celeste includes a Home is Connected smart home technology package which allows you to control your home with your smart device while near or away. On the outside you will see durable vinyl siding and the spacious 2 car garage. Each home has dimensional shingles with a 30-year warranty. Each yard is fully sodded and has plenty of room to enjoy activities with your family or friends. Whatever home you're looking for, you will find one at Morningside. Schedule a tour to see this beautiful floor plan.

24. 2026-04-19
    status Active 1153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1153 chars)

    Welcome to 7463 Morningside Dr. The Celeste floor plan is a 3-bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1,427 square feet open concept home. As you enter, you will notice the living room as the focal point of the home as it opens to the kitchen, hallway, and primary bedroom. The main areas are made with beautiful EVP flooring and carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has granite countertops and shiny stainless-steel appliances including a stove, microwave, and dishwasher. The bathroom also has granite countertops and EVP flooring, and the primary bathroom features a double vanity while the guest bathroom features a single vanity. Like all homes in Morningside, the Celeste includes a Home is Connected smart home technology package which allows you to control your home with your smart device while near or away. On the outside you will see durable vinyl siding and the spacious 2 car garage. Each home has dimensional shingles with a 30-year warranty. Each yard is fully sodded and has plenty of room to enjoy activities with your family or friends. Whatever home you're looking for, you will find one at Morningside. Schedule a tour to see this beautiful floor plan.

25. 2026-04-13
    status Pending 1153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1153 chars)

    Welcome to 7463 Morningside Dr. The Celeste floor plan is a 3-bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1,427 square feet open concept home. As you enter, you will notice the living room as the focal point of the home as it opens to the kitchen, hallway, and primary bedroom. The main areas are made with beautiful EVP flooring and carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has granite countertops and shiny stainless-steel appliances including a stove, microwave, and dishwasher. The bathroom also has granite countertops and EVP flooring, and the primary bathroom features a double vanity while the guest bathroom features a single vanity. Like all homes in Morningside, the Celeste includes a Home is Connected smart home technology package which allows you to control your home with your smart device while near or away. On the outside you will see durable vinyl siding and the spacious 2 car garage. Each home has dimensional shingles with a 30-year warranty. Each yard is fully sodded and has plenty of room to enjoy activities with your family or friends. Whatever home you're looking for, you will find one at Morningside. Schedule a tour to see this beautiful floor plan.

26. 2026-04-03
    price $269,900 1153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1153 chars)

    Welcome to 7463 Morningside Dr. The Celeste floor plan is a 3-bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1,427 square feet open concept home. As you enter, you will notice the living room as the focal point of the home as it opens to the kitchen, hallway, and primary bedroom. The main areas are made with beautiful EVP flooring and carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has granite countertops and shiny stainless-steel appliances including a stove, microwave, and dishwasher. The bathroom also has granite countertops and EVP flooring, and the primary bathroom features a double vanity while the guest bathroom features a single vanity. Like all homes in Morningside, the Celeste includes a Home is Connected smart home technology package which allows you to control your home with your smart device while near or away. On the outside you will see durable vinyl siding and the spacious 2 car garage. Each home has dimensional shingles with a 30-year warranty. Each yard is fully sodded and has plenty of room to enjoy activities with your family or friends. Whatever home you're looking for, you will find one at Morningside. Schedule a tour to see this beautiful floor plan.

27. 2026-03-07
    historical
28. 2026-03-02
    listed $274,900 Active
29. 2026-02-11
    listed $274,900 Active 1153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1153 chars)

    Welcome to 7463 Morningside Dr. The Celeste floor plan is a 3-bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1,427 square feet open concept home. As you enter, you will notice the living room as the focal point of the home as it opens to the kitchen, hallway, and primary bedroom. The main areas are made with beautiful EVP flooring and carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has granite countertops and shiny stainless-steel appliances including a stove, microwave, and dishwasher. The bathroom also has granite countertops and EVP flooring, and the primary bathroom features a double vanity while the guest bathroom features a single vanity. Like all homes in Morningside, the Celeste includes a Home is Connected smart home technology package which allows you to control your home with your smart device while near or away. On the outside you will see durable vinyl siding and the spacious 2 car garage. Each home has dimensional shingles with a 30-year warranty. Each yard is fully sodded and has plenty of room to enjoy activities with your family or friends. Whatever home you're looking for, you will find one at Morningside. Schedule a tour to see this beautiful floor plan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $856 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,199 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,342/yr (+$112/mo · 156.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$856
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$5,631
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,351
• After-tax cash flow: $459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $249,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $259,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $250,500 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $269,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $274,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $274,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+32.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $856 · +24.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.