4057 Giorgio Dr · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$317,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,305 sqft · Land · 49 Days on market

Built 2026 5,662 sqft lot $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. his BEATIFUL ELSTON II Model home has 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths & a 2-car garage-2305 SqFt. NEWLY UPGRADED! Large 2-STORY open floor plan with spacious great room & kitchen to entertain & enjoy the company of your guests. All bedrooms & laundry located on the 2nd floor. Your very spacious master suite located on the 2nd floor with a large walk-closet & a double sink vanity with stall shower. This Home provides Stainless Appliances which include range, hood microwave, refrigerator, dishwasher and much more. We also provide Smart Home Technology which allows you to set the scene and connect to your home from your smart phone, or through the smart

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Spacious great room
• Large walk-closet

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• LARGE WALK-CLOSET
• DOUBLE SINK VANITY
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chain of Lakes Elementary School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 1,130 students, 37% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $235,535 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.95%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-68,071
• Equity at exit: $47,413

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-87,709
• Equity at exit: $27,494

Cash invested: $89,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,355 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,148/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,632

Max offer price $279,361

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,498
• Closing costs: $9,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3905 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1707	$2,050	$1.20	3d	1	0.28mi
3412 Costello Cir Winter Haven, FL	5.0	3.0	2540	$2,500	$0.98	23d	1	0.33mi
6472 Domizio Dr Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,300	$1.09	23d	1	0.44mi
3511 Costello Cir Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2234	$2,100	$0.94	23d	1	0.44mi
6428 Domizio Dr Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,200	$1.04	23d	1	0.48mi
2772 San Marco Way Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	1988	$2,200	$1.11	23d	1	0.51mi
2116 Cartgate Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2217	$2,500	$1.13	23d	1	0.52mi
2107 Cartgate Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2217	$2,600	$1.17	23d	1	0.53mi
6204 Botticella Blvd Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2280	$2,350	$1.03	3d	1	0.54mi
4442 Rapallo Ave Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	23d	1	0.56mi
4506 Rapallo Ave Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1754	$1,899	$1.08	23d	1	0.57mi
1310 Benevento Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1964	$2,500	$1.27	23d	1	0.74mi
1343 Benevento Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1849	$2,000	$1.08	14d	1	0.74mi
632 Vittorio Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1597	$1,895	$1.19	23d	1	0.80mi
397 Corso Loop Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,395	$1.29	3d	1	0.97mi
850 Terranova Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1770	$2,176	$1.23	3d	1	1.22mi
810 Terranova Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2056	$1,900	$0.92	23d	1	1.26mi
554 Reddicks Cir Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	10d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-13
   listed $317,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,148 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,148 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,812
• − Property taxes: −$3,148
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,261
• − Management: −$2,261
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$9,251
• Taxable loss: −$8,263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,983
• After-tax cash flow: $-641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Listed $317,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid