216 Camellia St · Lake Jackson, TX 77566

$194,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,811 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1943 0.26 ac lot $107/sqft · at area comps Est $196k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment property!! This recently remodeled home features modern comfort and style. The living spaces are designed to facilitate both intimate family gatherings and larger celebrations with friends, curated to balance a sense of warmth with ample room to breathe. Spacious home with a large fenced in backyard, located in the desirable Lake Jackson area, the property is within proximity to schools, shopping and restaurants. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this exceptional property your very own. Reach out today to arrange a viewing and discover the charm and comfort this home has to offer. Currently, tenant occupied until 7/31/2026.

Key facts

• Proximity to schools
• Remodeled home
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• PROXIMITY TO SCHOOLS
• PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING
• PROXIMITY TO RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Concrete road access
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1943; Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced backyard; Porch; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 10 x 11; 12 x 11; 9 x 12; 11 x 12)
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters; Window treatments / coverings; Ceiling fan(s); One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $215 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in TX, #2,709 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rasco Middle (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 731 students, 58% FRL); Brazoswood H S (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 2,398 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,180 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.75%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,050
• List price: $194,000
• Delta: -1.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
513 Magnolia St	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,833 (+1%)	0mo	$225,000	$123	90
613 Magnolia	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,809 (-0%)	2mo	$249,900	$138	79
501 Elm St	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,722 (-5%)	1mo	$267,000	$155	73
122 Blossom St	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,886 (+4%)	3mo	$269,900	$143	71
232 Laurel St	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,834 (+1%)	4mo	$239,999	$131	62
303 Ligustrum St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,694 (-6%)	3mo	$225,000	$133	60
118 Poinsetta St	0.33mi	4/1.0	1,558 (-14%)	4mo	$140,000	$90	54
112 Pine St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,707 (-6%)	4mo	$267,000	$156	52
55 Habanero Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,719 (-5%)	3mo	$279,900	$163	50
126 Daisy St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (+11%)	3mo	$320,000	$159	49
520 Sycamore St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,971 (+9%)	4mo	$285,000	$145	48
714 Center Way St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,550 (-14%)	2mo	$249,900	$161	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-23,679
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-25,934
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77566

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,053 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,699/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,780

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
523 Wisteria St Lake Jackson, TX	3.0	1.5	1508	$1,775	$1.18	43d	1	0.61mi
301 Cypress St Lake Jackson, TX	3.0	2.5	1878	$2,000	$1.06	43d	1	0.96mi
214 Oleander St Lake Jackson, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,000	$1.41	43d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $194,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $194,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-04-27
    listed $194,000 Active 655-char remark
15. 2025-07-05
    historical
16. 2025-06-30
    historical $2,000
17. 2025-06-24
    listed $2,000
18. 2025-06-23
    historical $2,000
19. 2025-06-08
    listed $199,900 Active
20. 2025-06-08
    historical
21. 2025-06-04
    listed $2,000
22. 2025-06-03
    historical $2,000
23. 2025-04-11
    price $2,000
24. 2025-04-01
    price $2,050
25. 2025-03-31
    listed $199,900 Active
26. 2025-03-31
    historical
27. 2025-03-19
    listed $2,100
28. 2025-03-19
    historical $2,100
29. 2025-01-23
    listed $209,000 Active
30. 2025-01-23
    historical
31. 2025-01-15
    listed $2,100
32. 2024-12-06
    listed $209,900 Active
33. 2024-12-06
    historical
34. 2024-10-27
    listed $209,900 Active
35. 2024-10-20
    price $209,900
36. 2024-10-12
    historical
37. 2024-03-04
    historical
38. 2024-02-29
    historical $1,725
39. 2024-02-27
    historical $1,725
40. 2024-02-27
    listed $1,725
41. 2024-01-23
    listed $229,900 Active
42. 2024-01-04
    price $1,725
43. 2023-11-30
    price $1,800
44. 2023-11-14
    listed $2,000
45. 2023-09-19
    soldstatus
46. 2023-08-30
    soldstatus Sold
47. 2023-08-17
    status Pending
48. 2023-07-26
    price $119,000
49. 2023-07-19
    listed $129,000 Active
50. 2023-05-07
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,699 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,699 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$3,699
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,970
• − Management: −$1,970
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$489
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$117
• After-tax cash flow: $2,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brazosport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811190
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,024
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #4557
• State rank: #305 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Jackson

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2709

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Jackson, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 30,246
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,246
• Household income: $92,586
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1126.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.81%
• Current HPI: 251.8234
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.11%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+29.4% since first listed

42 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $194,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-23 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-08 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-03 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $2,050 HARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Rental Removed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2025-01-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-23 Listed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-15 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2024-12-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-06 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-27 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-20 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-12 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2024-03-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-29 Rental Removed $1,725 HARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Rental Removed $1,725 HARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Listed for Rent $1,725 HARMLS
• 2024-01-23 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2024-01-04 Price Changed $1,725 HARMLS
• 2023-11-30 Price Changed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2023-11-14 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-08-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-07-26 Price Changed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-19 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-07-05 Price Changed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2022-05-10 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2017-09-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-08-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,699 · +21.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.