531 Wisteria St · Lakewood Village, TX 75068

$560,685

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,061 sqft · Land · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 6,050 sqft lot $183/sqft · at area comps Est $538k · at est. $104/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Carmine at 531 Wisteria Street in South Oak! This stunning new home blends luxury with versatility, beginning with Revwood flooring throughout the main living area and extending into the primary suite. The gourmet kitchen shines with a center island and large walk-in pantry, opening to a casual dining area and inviting great room with a cozy fireplace and soaring ceiling. Step out to the covered patio for a relaxing outdoor retreat. The main level primary suite sits at the back of the home and features a spa-inspired en-suite bath with a slide-in tub and walk-in closet. Off the foyer, you'll find a flex room, secondary bedroom, and full bathroom, with the laundry room near the garage entry for added convenience. Upstairs offers three additional bedrooms, including one with its own private en-suite bath, another full bathroom, a spacious game room, and a media room. Come home to a lakeside lifestyle at South Oak 50s. Enjoy community walking trails, catch-and-release fishing, and a clubhouse with a resort-style pool, aerobics and weight rooms, lounge areas, and a catering kitchen. Plus, a brand-new elementary school is being built less than two miles away, adding even more convenience for families. Additional Highlights Include: Extended primary suite and covered patio, slide-in tub at primary bath, upstairs secondary full bathroom, and media room. Photos are for representative purposes only.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio
• Flex room

Tags

• GAME ROOM
• MEDIA ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• FLEX ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $561k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $408k (27.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $370k (34.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $370k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.4% in Lakewood Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#968 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Little Elm ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #327 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1306 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $369,820 (34.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.08%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $538,154
• List price: $560,685
• Delta: 4.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-168,906
• Equity at exit: $83,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-275,181
• Equity at exit: $48,478

Cash invested: $156,992 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75068

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 1306
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,698 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,940
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$701 /mo · $8,410/yr
• Insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$104
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$777
• Net cashflow: $-1,057

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,036

Max offer price $407,708

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $140,171
• Closing costs: $16,821
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
329 Magnolia St Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.5	2536	$4,300	$1.70	18d	1	0.29mi
329 Magnolia St Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.5	2536	$3,650	$1.44	1d	1	0.29mi
3803 Fishermans Cv Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	2953	$3,000	$1.02	24d	1	0.49mi
825 Carrie Ln Unit 1028451P Lakewood Village, TX	4.0	3.5	3552	$21,302	$6.00	22d	1	1.14mi
825 Carrie Ln Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	3560	$15,000	$4.21	22d	1	1.14mi
2340 Willow Garden Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	2630	$2,850	$1.08	19d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $104 · $1,248/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on marketlisting id $560,685 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $560,685 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $560,685 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $560,685 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $560,685 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $560,685 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-03-10
   listed $560,685 Active 1428-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1428 chars)

   Welcome to the Carmine at 531 Wisteria Street in South Oak! This stunning new home blends luxury with versatility, beginning with Revwood flooring throughout the main living area and extending into the primary suite. The gourmet kitchen shines with a center island and large walk-in pantry, opening to a casual dining area and inviting great room with a cozy fireplace and soaring ceiling. Step out to the covered patio for a relaxing outdoor retreat. The main level primary suite sits at the back of the home and features a spa-inspired en-suite bath with a slide-in tub and walk-in closet. Off the foyer, you'll find a flex room, secondary bedroom, and full bathroom, with the laundry room near the garage entry for added convenience. Upstairs offers three additional bedrooms, including one with its own private en-suite bath, another full bathroom, a spacious game room, and a media room. Come home to a lakeside lifestyle at South Oak 50s. Enjoy community walking trails, catch-and-release fishing, and a clubhouse with a resort-style pool, aerobics and weight rooms, lounge areas, and a catering kitchen. Plus, a brand-new elementary school is being built less than two miles away, adding even more convenience for families. Additional Highlights Include: Extended primary suite and covered patio, slide-in tub at primary bath, upstairs secondary full bathroom, and media room. Photos are for representative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,378
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,407
• − Property taxes: −$8,410
• − Insurance: −$2,803
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,550
• − Management: −$3,550
• − HOA: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$16,311
• Taxable loss: −$22,902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,496
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Elm ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827720
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $76,400
• Composite: 36.17/100
• National rank: #4734
• State rank: #327 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakewood Village

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #968
• US rank: #17186

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,710
• Household income: $126,635
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 829.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.41%
• Current HPI: 249.755
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $560,685 Zillow