2415 Rincon Rd · Rincon, NM 87940

$50,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1928 ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Livability +1.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Large residential lot for sale in Rincon, NM, offering over a quarter acre of land. Ideal for building a custom home, mobile home or hold as an investment. Enjoy a quiet setting with plenty of space and privacy, while still having easy access to main roads and nearby communities. A great opportunity to own land with flexibility and potential. All utilities are available.

Key facts

• Quarter acre of land
• Quiet setting
• Built 1928

Tags

• LARGE RESIDENTIAL LOT
• QUARTER ACRE OF LAND
• QUIET SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO MAIN ROADS
• ALL UTILITIES AVAILABLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 28/100 on livability (#434 in NM) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hatch Valley Public Schools (rural): math 14% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #57 of 95 in NM (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 95% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.06%
• DSCR: 2.87
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $35,268
• Equity at exit: $20,352

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.02×
• Total profit: $84,314
• Equity at exit: $29,800

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87940

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,009 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $279/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $388

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $519	-5% $505	+0% $491	+5% $477	+10% $462
Rent	-10% $411	-5% $451	+0% $491	+5% $531	+10% $570
Rate	-1.0pp $516	-0.5pp $503	base $491	+0.5pp $478	+1.0pp $465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $50,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $50,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $50,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $50,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $50,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $50,000
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $60,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $279 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $400 · $33/mo
• Expected delta: +$121/yr (+$10/mo · 43.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$279
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$969
• − Management: −$969
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $5,385
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,293
• After-tax cash flow: $4,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hatch Valley Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501230
• Math proficiency: 14% —
• Reading proficiency: 33% —
• Median HH income: $27,864
• Composite: 21.76/100
• National rank: #13583
• State rank: #57 of 95 in NM

Livability — Rincon

• Score: 28/100
• State rank: #434
• US rank: #27951

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rincon, NM
• Population (ZIP): 431

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 65% White 35% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 65%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.23%
• Current HPI: 178.7882
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $50,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $60,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $279 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.