1676 Barker Rd · Ray City, GA 31645

$154,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1988 1.06 ac lot $106/sqft · 16% below area Est $184k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This would be a great rental investment or a great fixer upper starter home. The tile in the home has cracked and will need to be replaced, has a front and back covered patio. The home will be ready to show Monday Oct 3rd

Key facts

• New water heater
• Roof under warranty
• New appliances

Tags

• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW WATER HEATER
• ROOF UNDER WARRANTY
• HVAC SYSTEM UNDER WARRANTY
• BRAND NEW WELL
• NEW SUBFLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1.06 acres; Zoning: R4

Exterior

• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built as a mobile home
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Security system; Garbage disposal
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.0% in Ray City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#260 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Berrien County (rural): math 48% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #24 of 174 in GA (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 96 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Berrien County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $155k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,674 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.17%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,394
• List price: $154,999
• Delta: -15.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3115 Garner Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	8mo	$154,000	$106	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $30,508
• Equity at exit: $72,050

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $92,495
• Equity at exit: $112,906

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31645

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,547 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $154,999

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $154,999 Pending 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,999 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,999 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,999 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $154,999 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $154,999 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,999 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,999 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,999 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $154,999 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    status Pending 1059-char remark
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $159,900 Active 1059-char remark
18. 2022-12-01
    soldstatus $50,000
19. 2022-11-30
    soldstatus $50,000

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    This would be a great rental investment or a great fixer upper starter home. The tile in the home has cracked and will need to be replaced, has a front and back covered patio. The home will be ready to show Monday Oct 3rd

20. 2022-09-28
    listed $69,900

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    This would be a great rental investment or a great fixer upper starter home. The tile in the home has cracked and will need to be replaced, has a front and back covered patio. The home will be ready to show Monday Oct 3rd

21. 2013-09-20
    soldstatus $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,485
• − Management: −$1,485
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$168
• After-tax cash flow: $1,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berrien County
• NCES district ID: 1300390
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,858
• Composite: 37.95/100
• National rank: #4302
• State rank: #24 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ray City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #14250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,971

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,982 people
• By 2030: 17,282 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 15,676 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 13,876 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 9,689 · -46.1%
• By 2100: 6,430 · -64.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.8) · D 15.0% · R 84.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.6pp toward R · 2008: -53.2pp · 2024: -69.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.8 2020: R+66.5 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+57.7 2008: R+53.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Current HPI: 233.1015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+288.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $154,999 SGMLS
• 2026-05-22 Relisted — SGMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $159,900 SGMLS
• 2022-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-30 Sold (MLS) $50,000 SGMLS
• 2022-09-28 Listed $69,900 SGMLS
• 2013-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $62 · -51.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.