17769 W Southgate Ave · Goodyear, AZ 85338

$599,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,232 sqft · Land · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 6,325 sqft lot $120/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Cash flow +2.6/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Quick Close! Welcome to your stunning 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath with flex room. Cottonwood home in the sought-after El Cidro community of Goodyear, AZ! Designed for modern living, this energy-efficient home features SPRAY FOAM insulation, high-performance energy-efficient windows, and a tankless gas water heater for superior comfort and savings. ready for a May closing!! Discover the allure of 4 bedrooms, each offering a serene sanctuary for rest and rejuvenation. The Owners Suite stands out as a true retreat, boasting a walk-in closet that adds a touch of luxury, keeping your belongings organized and easily accessible. This home invites you to enjoy the beauty of the outdoors with a charming

Key facts

• Charming porch
• Covered patio
• Walk in closet

Tags

• SPRAY FOAM INSULATION
• ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• TANKLESS GAS WATER HEATER
• WALK IN CLOSET
• CHARMING PORCH
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (49.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (53.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (53.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 3.0% in Goodyear — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Agua Fria Union High School District (4289) (suburban): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #99 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Desert Edge High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 1,991 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1088 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,934 (53.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.62%
• DSCR: 0.35
• GRM: 17.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -47.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-235,717
• Equity at exit: $89,460

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.41×
• Total profit: $-404,483
• Equity at exit: $51,876

Cash invested: $167,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85338

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1088
• Price-to-rent: 17.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,809 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$750 /mo · $9,000/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-2,047

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,401

Max offer price $303,783

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,998
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17954 W Raymond St Goodyear, AZ	5.0	3.0	3466	$2,950	$0.85	2d	1	0.39mi
3422 S 176th Dr Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2647	$3,350	$1.27	1d	1	0.48mi
18233 W Pueblo Ave Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,300	$1.10	1d	1	0.63mi
4119 S 186th Ave Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2977	$2,350	$0.79	44d	1	0.99mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	2d	1	1.34mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	5d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   price $599,990
3. 2026-03-20
   price $590,562
4. 2026-03-20
   listed $589,990 Active
5. 2025-04-02
   soldstatus $1,138,500
6. 2023-12-28
   soldstatus $5,186,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥113°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$9,000
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,697
• − Management: −$2,697
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$17,454
• Taxable loss: −$36,185
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,684
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Agua Fria Union High School District (4289)
• NCES district ID: 0400450
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $64,107
• Composite: 27.92/100
• National rank: #6865
• State rank: #99 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Goodyear

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodyear, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 107,865
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 67,451
• Household income: $101,744
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 252.0828
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-88.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $599,990 ARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $590,562 ARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $589,990 ARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $1,138,500 Public Records
• 2023-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $5,186,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $223 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.