822 N Commerce Ave · Front Royal, VA 22630

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 948 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1960 2,696 sqft lot $211/sqft · 26% below area Est $272k · 26% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR purchase only. Current tenant and lease in place, and has to convey to the new owner. Text agent for details. Convenient living in the town of Front Royal. Enjoy the cooler summers and mountain adventures close to home. The outdoors awaits with streams, hiking, camping, and Skyline Caverns, just moments away. Easy walk to the Old Town area of Front Royal. The home is currently rented with an active lease (including lawn service). Contact us ASAP for a private appointment to view 822 N Commerce Ave, Front Royal, VA 22630 * Note: some of the photos were digitally staged for your inspiration.

Key facts

• 2,696 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1960

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $199,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$271,857) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($137/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.6% in Front Royal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#162 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $154,497 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.24%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,857
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -26.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 E 5th St	0.33mi	2/1.0	960 (+1%)	7mo	$269,000	$280	76
122 W 9th St	0.25mi	3/1.5 (+1)	925 (-2%)	10mo	$290,000	$314	69
514 Manassas Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0	880 (-7%)	4mo	$264,900	$301	63
621 New Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (+10%)	11mo	$315,000	$303	55
527 Frederick Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+1%)	13mo	$295,000	$307	52
101 W 17th St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,025 (+8%)	2mo	$325,000	$317	50
517 Frederick Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+1%)	14mo	$335,000	$349	48
27 Fairview Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,075 (+13%)	20mo	$334,000	$311	43
502 Manassas Ave	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,012 (+7%)	23mo	$315,900	$312	43
222 Washington Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,090 (+15%)	10mo	$262,000	$240	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-23,585
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $17,221
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22630

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,545 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $931/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1127 N Royal Ave Unit B Front Royal, VA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	24d	1	0.24mi
1127 N Royal Ave Unit B Front Royal, VA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	11d	1	0.24mi
343 Kendrick Ln Front Royal, VA	2.0	1.0	730	$1,250	$1.71	3d	1	0.50mi
343 Kendrick Ln Front Royal, VA	2.0	1.0	730	$1,250	$1.71	43d	1	0.50mi
363 Kendrick Ln Unit 63-51 Front Royal, VA	2.0	1.0	730	$1,250	$1.71	43d	1	0.59mi
1416 N Shenandoah Ave Unit 8 Front Royal, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	24d	1	0.59mi
422 Viscose Ave Unit 3 Front Royal, VA	2.0	1.0	816	$1,490	$1.83	5d	1	0.85mi
518 Viscose Ave #2 Front Royal, VA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	43d	1	0.86mi
228 Cloud St Unit UPPER Front Royal, VA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,200	$1.36	20d	1	1.04mi
221 Fletcher St #2 Front Royal, VA	3.0	1.0	980	$1,440	$1.47	5d	1	1.05mi
213 Laurel St Front Royal, VA	2.0	1.0	768	$1,440	$1.88	44d	1	1.16mi
310 Frazer Pl Front Royal, VA	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,000	$1.81	43d	1	1.18mi
352 Blue Ridge Ave Unit B Front Royal, VA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	24d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 606-char remark

   Show marketing remark (606 chars)

   INVESTOR purchase only. Current tenant and lease in place, and has to convey to the new owner. Text agent for details. Convenient living in the town of Front Royal. Enjoy the cooler summers and mountain adventures close to home. The outdoors awaits with streams, hiking, camping, and Skyline Caverns, just moments away. Easy walk to the Old Town area of Front Royal. The home is currently rented with an active lease (including lawn service). Contact us ASAP for a private appointment to view 822 N Commerce Ave, Front Royal, VA 22630 * Note: some of the photos were digitally staged for your inspiration.

2. 2026-04-09
   listed $199,900 Active 606-char remark

   Show marketing remark (606 chars)

   INVESTOR purchase only. Current tenant and lease in place, and has to convey to the new owner. Text agent for details. Convenient living in the town of Front Royal. Enjoy the cooler summers and mountain adventures close to home. The outdoors awaits with streams, hiking, camping, and Skyline Caverns, just moments away. Easy walk to the Old Town area of Front Royal. The home is currently rented with an active lease (including lawn service). Contact us ASAP for a private appointment to view 822 N Commerce Ave, Front Royal, VA 22630 * Note: some of the photos were digitally staged for your inspiration.

3. 2026-03-31
   historical $199,900 606-char remark

   Show marketing remark (606 chars)

   INVESTOR purchase only. Current tenant and lease in place, and has to convey to the new owner. Text agent for details. Convenient living in the town of Front Royal. Enjoy the cooler summers and mountain adventures close to home. The outdoors awaits with streams, hiking, camping, and Skyline Caverns, just moments away. Easy walk to the Old Town area of Front Royal. The home is currently rented with an active lease (including lawn service). Contact us ASAP for a private appointment to view 822 N Commerce Ave, Front Royal, VA 22630 * Note: some of the photos were digitally staged for your inspiration.

4. 2025-08-15
   historical $1,500
5. 2025-08-14
   listed $1,500
6. 2024-05-06
   historical $1,400
7. 2024-04-30
   price $1,400
8. 2024-03-16
   listed $1,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $931 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$708/yr (+$59/mo · 76.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$931
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,483
• − Management: −$1,483
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$809
• After-tax cash flow: $945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Front Royal

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #5050

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Front Royal, VA
• County: Warren County · 35,615 people
• City population: 35,615
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 35,615
• Household income: $84,631
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 460.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 319.8136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.30%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+13226.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-31 Coming Soon $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-15 Rental Removed $1,500 BRIGHTMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed for Rent $1,500 BRIGHTMLS
• 2024-05-06 Rental Removed $1,400 BRIGHTMLS
• 2024-04-30 Price Changed $1,400 BRIGHTMLS
• 2024-03-16 Listed for Rent $1,500 BRIGHTMLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $931 · +51.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.