215 Pine Hill Rd · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$299,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,378 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1990 0.44 ac lot $218/sqft · 67% above area Est $389k · 23% under $218/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience lake living in this Greers Ferry Lake view home in Fairfield Bay, AR. This inviting property features a vaulted living area with wood beam ceilings and easy access to a spacious deck offering scenic views. The dining area includes built-in glass cabinets and opens to a large kitchen with island. The main level offers a primary suite with tray ceiling and en suite bath featuring a walk-in tub and separate shower, along with a sunroom, half bath, and laundry. The lower level includes an oversized screened-in deck, family room with stone fireplace and bookshelves, two bedrooms, a full bath, bonus room, and storage. Upgrades include a new water heater and stove, and two propane tanks

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Lake view
• Spacious deck

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• SPACIOUS DECK
• BUILT-IN GLASS CABINETS
• LARGE KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• EN SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property has golf course access (Indian Hills); Approximate lot dimensions 115x160x169x118 (0.44 acres)
• Financial info: Potential financing: VA, FHA, Conventional, or cash
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee includes water/sewer and garbage ($218.85/month); Community amenities: swimming pools, tennis courts, playground, picnic area, marina, hot tub, golf course, fitness/bike trail

Exterior

• Parking: Garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Electric co-op; Propane/butane gas
• Home design: Rock and frame exterior with metal/vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Piers foundation; Located inside city limits
• Construction: Rock & frame construction; Metal/Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Piers foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Screened porch; Covered patio; Level lot; River/lake area; Mountain view; Lake view; Down slope; Paved road access; Has lake (Greers Ferry)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator stays
• Flooring: Wood; Tile; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Walk-in closets; Built-in cabinetry; Ceiling fans; Fireplace with blowers and glass doors (no-log gas)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-496 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $644 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $168k; list at $300k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $200,000 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.09%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $388,775
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -22.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
248 Pine Hill Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+14%)	4mo	$285,000	$182	62
172 Dunn Hollow Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+2%)	11mo	$155,000	$110	52
173 Dunn Hollow Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,378 (0%)	15mo	$123,000	$89	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-46,987
• Equity at exit: $80,006

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-49,478
• Equity at exit: $90,692

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,925/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$218
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-496

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,628

Max offer price $212,266

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-326	-5% $-411	+0% $-496	+5% $-581	+10% $-666
Rent	-10% $-654	-5% $-575	+0% $-496	+5% $-417	+10% $-338
Rate	-1.0pp $-345	-0.5pp $-420	base $-496	+0.5pp $-574	+1.0pp $-653

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	45d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $218 · $2,616/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   statusdays on market $299,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 New Listing 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 New Listing 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 New Listing 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 New Listing 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $299,900 New Listing 1 DOM
9. 2026-05-12
   historical
10. 2026-04-24
    price $300,000
11. 2026-01-24
    price $354,900
12. 2025-10-17
    price $369,900
13. 2025-09-16
    price $374,000
14. 2025-08-05
    price $382,000
15. 2025-03-10
    price $399,500
16. 2025-01-27
    listed $414,900 New Listing
17. 1998-10-30
    soldstatus $168,000
18. 1987-05-19
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,925 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,925 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥109°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,925
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$2,616
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$11,404
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,737
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+2899.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $299,900 CARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $300,000 CARMLS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $354,900 CARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $369,900 CARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $374,000 CARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $382,000 CARMLS
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $399,500 CARMLS
• 2025-01-27 Listed $414,900 CARMLS
• 1998-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $168,000 Public Records
• 1987-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,925 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.