2628 Grove Crest Dr · Rosenberg, TX 77469

$346,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,162 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2026 $113/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Netcher Floor Plan - This new single-story home features a gracious layout with ample space to grow and entertain. Two secondary bedrooms share a hallway bathroom off the foyer, while around the corner is a quiet third bedroom. At the heart of the home is an airy open-concept living area complemented by a practical study and a covered patio. In the corner is the serene owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Practical study
• Attached bathroom
• Covered patio

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• AIRY OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• PRACTICAL STUDY
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual association fee of $1,350
• HOA & community: Community association (VanMor Properities) with annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level); Bedroom (First level); Bedroom (First level); Bedroom (First level); Office (First level); Family room (First level); Dining room (First level); Kitchen (First level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric and Gas); Central air (Electric and Gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Separate shower; Tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $346,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $394,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $347k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-713 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1332 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($337k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,623 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.73%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $394,990
• List price: $346,990
• Delta: -12.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2711 Grove Crest Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,162 (0%)	1mo	$344,990	$160	92
2723 Grove Crest Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,941 (-10%)	1mo	$304,191	$157	82
4227 Eagle Pass Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (-3%)	3mo	$361,990	$173	80
4330 Eagle Pass Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (-3%)	2mo	$361,990	$173	77
2620 Pine Bluff Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,358 (+9%)	1mo	$394,990	$168	74
2716 Pine Bluff Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,358 (+9%)	3mo	$394,990	$168	73
4315 Eagle Pass Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,393 (+11%)	2mo	$379,990	$159	67
2704 Pine Bluff Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,386 (+10%)	2mo	$396,990	$166	65
4411 Eagle Pass Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,393 (+11%)	1mo	$381,990	$160	65
5115 Twin Summit Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,086 (-4%)	2mo	$330,000	$158	58
4622 Seabourne Landing Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,915 (-11%)	3mo	$299,900	$157	51
3708 Rock Ledge Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,372 (+10%)	2mo	$325,000	$137	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-117,187
• Equity at exit: $58,894

10-year hold

• IRR: -64.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-190,580
• Equity at exit: $34,152

Cash invested: $110,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1332
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,696 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$494 /mo · $5,925/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-713

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,598

Max offer price $291,866

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,748
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4516 Bartagrass Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2160	$3,850	$1.78	43d	1	0.59mi
5120 Twin Summit Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,099	$1.09	12d	1	0.63mi
5026 Manor Stone Ln Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,781	$1.14	12d	1	0.66mi
3715 Rock Ledge Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.5	2398	$2,400	$1.00	10d	1	0.74mi
5228 Pine Pass Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,271	$1.18	43d	1	0.79mi
4212 Russet Elm Ln Richmond, TX	4.0	2.5	2452	$2,295	$0.94	43d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $113 · $1,356/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $346,990 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 630-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $346,990 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $346,990 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $346,990 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $346,990 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $346,990 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $355,690 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $355,690 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $355,690 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $355,690 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $355,690 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $355,690 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $355,690 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $341,090 597-char remark
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $346,990 Active 597-char remark
17. 2026-05-05
    historical
18. 2026-05-04
    price $334,040
19. 2026-04-29
    listed $346,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$5,925
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,588
• − Management: −$2,588
• − HOA: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$15,694
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,767
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosenberg, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $346,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $355,690 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $361,090 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $341,090 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $346,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $334,040 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $346,990 HARMLS