62941 M-40 · Lawton, MI
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $784 – $1,456
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 99°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +8.6/10.0
- Livability +3.5/5.0
- Schools +3.1/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$139,900
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
'The deadline for the highest and best offers to be submitted will be Friday 5/22/26 @ Noon CST'Beautiful country setting, close to downtown Lawton, Paw Paw, and easy access to I-94. Two bedroom, one bath home with large living room and kitchen situated on a 3/4 acre lot. Newer washer and dryer in the basement. Extra large 2-car garage and driveway with plenty of parking. The property needs work, but has lots of potential. Call for your showing today! 'Seller will not counter purchase offers until the 10th day from listing date and requests highest and best at the time the offer is placed in the RESNET system'
Key facts
- Easy access to i-94
- 3/4 acre lot
- Large living room
Tags
Property features AI
Exterior
- Parking: Attached 2-car garage
- Utilities: Well water
- Home design: Traditional single-family residence; Built in 1960
- Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Built in 1960
- Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Lot of 0.79 acres; Well water
Interior
- Bathrooms: One full bathroom
- Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
- Interior features: Six total rooms; Full basement
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
- Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 70/100 on livability (#293 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
- Lawton Community School District (rural): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #263 of 540 in MI (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 165 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Van Buren County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.36% ✓
- Cap rate
- 11.43%
- Cash-on-cash
- 18.35%
- DSCR
- 1.82
- GRM
- 6.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $271,509
- List price
- $139,900
- Delta
- -48.47%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 2 within 1.0 mi
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 10.0%
- Equity multiple
- 1.39×
- Total profit
- $15,470
- Equity at exit
- $20,860
- IRR
- 19.1%
- Equity multiple
- 2.60×
- Total profit
- $62,548
- Equity at exit
- $12,096
Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Michigan
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 49065
- Active inventory
- 32
- Price-to-rent
- 6.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,897 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$734
- Tax from tax record
- −$108 /mo · $1,293/yr
- Insurance
- −$58
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$398
- Net cashflow
- $599
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $34,975
- Closing costs
- $4,197
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 4 events
-
2026-05-31statusdays on market $139,900 Pending 32 DOM
-
2026-04-28$139,900 Active 522-char remark
Show marketing remark (618 chars)
'The deadline for the highest and best offers to be submitted will be Friday 5/22/26 @ Noon CST'Beautiful country setting, close to downtown Lawton, Paw Paw, and easy access to I-94. Two bedroom, one bath home with large living room and kitchen situated on a 3/4 acre lot. Newer washer and dryer in the basement. Extra large 2-car garage and driveway with plenty of parking. The property needs work, but has lots of potential. Call for your showing today! 'Seller will not counter purchase offers until the 10th day from listing date and requests highest and best at the time the offer is placed in the RESNET system'
-
2026-04-28$139,900 Active 522-char remark
Show marketing remark (618 chars)
'The deadline for the highest and best offers to be submitted will be Friday 5/22/26 @ Noon CST'Beautiful country setting, close to downtown Lawton, Paw Paw, and easy access to I-94. Two bedroom, one bath home with large living room and kitchen situated on a 3/4 acre lot. Newer washer and dryer in the basement. Extra large 2-car garage and driveway with plenty of parking. The property needs work, but has lots of potential. Call for your showing today! 'Seller will not counter purchase offers until the 10th day from listing date and requests highest and best at the time the offer is placed in the RESNET system'
-
2026-04-28$139,900 Active
Show marketing remark (618 chars)
'The deadline for the highest and best offers to be submitted will be Friday 5/22/26 @ Noon CST'Beautiful country setting, close to downtown Lawton, Paw Paw, and easy access to I-94. Two bedroom, one bath home with large living room and kitchen situated on a 3/4 acre lot. Newer washer and dryer in the basement. Extra large 2-car garage and driveway with plenty of parking. The property needs work, but has lots of potential. Call for your showing today! 'Seller will not counter purchase offers until the 10th day from listing date and requests highest and best at the time the offer is placed in the RESNET system'
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $1,293 · $108/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,724 · $144/mo
- Expected delta
- +$431/yr (+$36/mo · 33.3%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $22,765
- − Mortgage interest
- −$7,837
- − Property taxes
- −$1,293
- − Insurance
- −$700
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,821
- − Management
- −$1,821
- − Depreciation
- −$4,070
- Taxable income
- $5,224
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,254
- After-tax cash flow
- $5,935/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Lawton Community School District
- NCES district ID
- 2621240
- Math proficiency
- 27% ▼ -9.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 45% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $49,315
- Composite
- 31.04/100
- National rank
- #6084
- State rank
- #263 of 540 in MI
Livability — Lawton
- Score
- 70/100
- State rank
- #293
- US rank
- #7328
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Population (ZIP)
- 7,283
Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 71,479 people
- By 2030
- 68,693 · -3.9%
- By 2040
- 62,093 · -13.1%
- By 2050
- 55,232 · -22.7%
- By 2075
- 40,786 · -42.9%
- By 2100
- 27,785 · -61.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (90%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 8% Iranian 6% Lithuanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 1% · Canada, South Korea
- Languages at home
- 98% English-only · Spanish 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren
- 2024 margin
- R (+15.1) · D 41.7% · R 56.9% · Other 1.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -23.9pp toward R · 2008: 8.8pp · 2024: -15.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+15.1 2020: R+12.3 2016: R+13.9 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+8.8
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -162.97%
- Current HPI
- 165.0761
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.37%
- F500 in state
- 28
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive Parts | 3 | $48B |
|
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| Automotive | 2 | $372B |
|
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| Chemicals | 1 | $45B |
|
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| Automotive Retail | 1 | $29B |
|
||
| Healthcare / Medical Devices | 1 | $23B |
|
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| Automotive Technology | 1 | $20B |
|
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Price history
+0.0% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-30 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2026-05-30 Pending — REALCOMP
- 2026-05-30 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
- 2026-04-28 Listed $139,900 SW Michigan MLS
- 2026-04-28 Listed $139,900 REALCOMP
- 2026-04-28 Listed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
Property tax history
+3.5%/yrLatest (2025): $1,293 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…