249 Hillcrest Dr · Neosho, MO 64850

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · Other public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1975

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in this charming basement home nestled in the hills of Neosho. Lots of potential, with great bones and a layout ready for your personal touch. Whether your a first time home buyer, investor or someone looking to create their own dream space, you'll appreciate the opportunities this property has to offer. The basement offers additional living space while the location is close to everything but a private feel with woods along the backside.

Key facts

• Basement home
• Garage
• Built 1975

Tags

• BASEMENT HOME
• ADDITIONAL LIVING SPACE
• WOODS ALONG THE BACKSIDE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; Has garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (freestanding); Residential property type
• Construction: Finished above-grade and below-grade living areas
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Irrigated/irregular lot dimensions

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Refrigerator; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Electric oven, Refrigerator, Microwave, Dishwasher; Carpet and laminate flooring; Total of 9 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-473 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (42.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (53.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (53.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#103 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Neosho School District (town): math 36% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #125 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: George Washington Carver Elem. (math 44% / reading 56%, grade D+, #280 of 1,115 statewide, top 25%, 551 students, 49% FRL); Neosho Jr. High (math 41% / reading 48%, grade D, #113 of 391 statewide, top 31%, 748 students, 58% FRL); Neosho High (math 21% / reading 57%, grade F, #287 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 1,491 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 110 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,781 (53.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.46% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.19%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 18.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-62,464
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.68×
• Total profit: $-93,567
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64850

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 18.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $918 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $858/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $-473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,516

Max offer price $115,451

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-360	-5% $-417	+0% $-473	+5% $-529	+10% $-586
Rent	-10% $-545	-5% $-509	+0% $-473	+5% $-437	+10% $-400
Rate	-1.0pp $-373	-0.5pp $-422	base $-473	+0.5pp $-525	+1.0pp $-577

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
606 W Hill St Neosho, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	0.61mi
1229 Reid Rd Neosho, MO	2.0	1.0	973	$1,000	$1.03	25d	1	0.66mi
PRV Neosho, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$760	$0.54	16d	1	1.07mi
316 Wheeler St Neosho, MO	3.0	1.0	1414	$900	$0.64	25d	1	1.09mi
320 E Hickory St Neosho, MO	2.0	1.0	1400	$850	$0.61	22d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $858 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,930 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,072/yr (+$89/mo · 124.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$858
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$881
• − Management: −$881
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$9,538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,289
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neosho School District
• NCES district ID: 2921810
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,574
• Composite: 35.21/100
• National rank: #4987
• State rank: #125 of 324 in MO

Livability — Neosho

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #103
• US rank: #6875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Neosho, MO
• Population (ZIP): 25,355

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,151 people
• By 2030: 58,961 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 57,609 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 54,775 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 46,140 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 34,348 · -41.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.6) · D 20.2% · R 78.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.5pp toward R · 2008: -40.1pp · 2024: -58.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.6 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+58.7 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+40.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.98%
• Current HPI: 295.9911
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — OGAR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $199,000 OGAR

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $858 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.