3513 Fairview · Antioch, CA 94509

$799,000

6 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,072 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1965 8,255 sqft lot $260/sqft · 6% below area Est $848k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Exceptional investment opportunity in Antioch featuring this spacious triplex offering approximately 3,072 sq ft of living space on an expansive 8,255 sq ft lot. Whether you’re an investor looking to add a strong income-producing property to your portfolio or an owner-occupant seeking the advantages of multi-unit living, this property offers outstanding potential and flexibility. The property features three separate units with excellent rental income potential and multiple strategies for maximizing value. Ideal for house hacking, multi-generational living, or long-term investment ownership. The oversized lot offers added possibilities for outdoor space, parking, storage, or future imp

Key facts

• Parking
• Outdoor space
• Oversized lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS TRIPLEX
• THREE SEPARATE UNITS
• EXCELLENT RENTAL INCOME
• OVERSIZED LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Three-unit property (triplex)

Exterior

• Parking: Total of 3 parking spaces; Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Individual gas meter
• Home design: Residential income property — triplex; Built in 1965
• Construction: Concrete and stone construction
• Exterior features: Low maintenance yard; Fenced, full

Interior

• Flooring: Linoleum; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 1.5 bathrooms (three units total)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wall furnace; Heating in each unit (multi-unit); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Shower stall(s); Tub with shower over
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $799k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($270/yr) — positive. Per door: $8/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $649k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $649k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turner Elementary (436 students, 74% FRL); Antioch Middle (660 students, 79% FRL); Antioch High (math 22% / reading 57%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,960 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,487/mo this rent would consume 90% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 3063% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($775k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $799k implies a 202% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $648,700 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.12%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $848,478
• List price: $799,000
• Delta: -5.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-140,432
• Equity at exit: $119,133

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-169,401
• Equity at exit: $69,083

Cash invested: $223,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94509

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 30.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,487 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax from tax record: −$579 /mo · $6,951/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,362
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,458

Max offer price $799,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $475	-5% $249	+0% $23	+5% $-204	+10% $-430
Rent	-10% $-490	-5% $-234	+0% $23	+5% $279	+10% $535
Rate	-1.0pp $425	-0.5pp $226	base $23	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-395

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1.5	$6,486
Total (3 units)			$6,487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $199,750
• Closing costs: $23,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3582 Mallard Way Antioch, CA	5.0	3.0	3620	$4,595	$1.27	1d	1	1.27mi
3582 Mallard Way Antioch, CA	5.0	3.0	3620	$4,595	$1.27	14d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $799,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $799,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $799,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $799,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $799,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $799,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $799,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $799,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $799,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $799,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $799,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $799,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $799,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $799,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $799,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    historical
17. 2026-05-12
    listed Active
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $799,000 Active 1493-char remark
19. 2002-05-06
    soldstatus $265,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,951 · $579/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,951 · $579/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $77,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,756
• − Property taxes: −$6,951
• − Insurance: −$3,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,228
• − Management: −$6,228
• − Depreciation: −$23,244
• Taxable loss: −$13,557
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,254
• After-tax cash flow: $3,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 116,477
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,090
• Household income: $86,196
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 25% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -477.30%
• Current HPI: 309.3499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+201.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-12 Listed $799,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-12 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,951 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.