2565 4th St · Fuller Heights, FL 33860

$103,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1958 8,999 sqft lot ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome home to this 2 bedroom/1 bath bungalow. Luxury Plank Flooring throughout with new ceiling fans and lighting. Eat-in Kitchen features refrigerator, microwave, range and maple cabinets. Bath has cultured marble vanity and shower/tub combination. Use the enclosed porch as a sitting room or flex room. The side porch provides shade and space to cook-out or relax. Close to Downtown Lakeland and Lakeland Airport.

Key facts

• Lakeland airport
• Downtown lakeland
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• SIDE PORCH
• DOWNTOWN LAKELAND
• LAKELAND AIRPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Southeast facing; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: No laundry room listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#720 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $718 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,549 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.53%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $6,738
• Equity at exit: $15,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $30,950
• Equity at exit: $8,983

Cash invested: $29,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33860

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,408 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,483/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $901

Max offer price $103,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,975
• Closing costs: $3,117
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   price $103,900
3. 2026-05-07
   price $104,900
4. 2026-04-27
   price $106,900
5. 2026-04-10
   price $108,900
6. 2026-04-01
   price $109,900
7. 2026-03-26
   price $111,900
8. 2026-03-19
   price $112,900
9. 2026-02-27
   price $113,900
10. 2026-02-13
    listed $114,900 Active
11. 2024-01-30
    historical $1,100
12. 2024-01-15
    listed $1,100
13. 2017-02-10
    soldstatus $265,300
14. 2010-06-11
    historical
15. 2010-01-06
    listed $47,500
16. 2009-05-12
    historical
17. 2009-01-16
    listed $90,000
18. 2008-03-18
    historical
19. 2008-03-17
    listed $125,000
20. 2007-11-12
    listed $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,483 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,483 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,820
• − Property taxes: −$1,483
• − Insurance: −$520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,352
• − Management: −$1,352
• − Depreciation: −$3,023
• Taxable income: $3,350
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$804
• After-tax cash flow: $4,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fuller Heights

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #720
• US rank: #15426

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fuller Heights, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,892
• Household income: $65,710
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.08%
• Current HPI: 349.7266
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-35.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $103,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $104,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $106,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $108,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $111,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $112,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $113,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Listed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-30 Rental Removed $1,100 STELLARMLS
• 2024-01-15 Listed for Rent $1,100 STELLARMLS
• 2017-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $265,300 Public Records
• 2010-06-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-06 Listed $47,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-16 Listed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-17 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-12 Listed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+17.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,483 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.