29061 Tidewater Trl · Port Royal, VA 22535

$206,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1967 1.00 ac lot $179/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your vision to life at 29061 Tidewater Trail! This 1967-built home features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and 1,152 square feet on a generous 1-acre lot. With plenty of outdoor space and endless potential, this property is being sold As-Is and is ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1967

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $206k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $621 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $206k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#456 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,460 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.93%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $457,607
• List price: $206,000
• Delta: -54.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $57,955
• Equity at exit: $85,841

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $158,912
• Equity at exit: $127,239

Cash invested: $57,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22535

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,080
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,127/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,595

Max offer price $206,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,500
• Closing costs: $6,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $206,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $206,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $206,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $206,000 Pending 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $206,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $206,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $206,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $206,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $206,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $206,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $206,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $206,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-04-23
    price $206,000 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Bring your vision to life at 29061 Tidewater Trail! This 1967-built home features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and 1,152 square feet on a generous 1-acre lot. With plenty of outdoor space and endless potential, this property is being sold As-Is and is ready for its next chapter.

14. 2026-03-12
    listed $226,000 Active 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Bring your vision to life at 29061 Tidewater Trail! This 1967-built home features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and 1,152 square feet on a generous 1-acre lot. With plenty of outdoor space and endless potential, this property is being sold As-Is and is ready for its next chapter.

15. 2026-03-01
    price $226,000 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Bring your vision to life at 29061 Tidewater Trail! This 1967-built home features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and 1,152 square feet on a generous 1-acre lot. With plenty of outdoor space and endless potential, this property is being sold As-Is and is ready for its next chapter.

16. 2026-03-01
    historical $266,000 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Bring your vision to life at 29061 Tidewater Trail! This 1967-built home features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and 1,152 square feet on a generous 1-acre lot. With plenty of outdoor space and endless potential, this property is being sold As-Is and is ready for its next chapter.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,127 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,689 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$562/yr (+$47/mo · 49.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,539
• − Property taxes: −$1,127
• − Insurance: −$1,030
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,286
• − Management: −$2,286
• − Depreciation: −$5,993
• Taxable income: $4,318
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,036
• After-tax cash flow: $6,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,075
• Composite: 43.88/100
• National rank: #2920
• State rank: #95 of 131 in VA

Livability — Port Royal

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #19400

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment D+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 602

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,136 people
• By 2030: 32,973 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 34,255 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 34,843 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 35,134 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 32,184 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 17% Two or more races 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 2% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.8) · D 45.1% · R 53.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: -8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+5.1 2012: D+8.2 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Current HPI: 285.7289
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-22.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $206,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $226,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $226,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-01 Coming Soon $266,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,127 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.