11 Stephens Pl · Bluewater Village, NM 87005

$90,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,233 sqft · SingleFamily · 199 Days on market

Built 1984 0.78 ac lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious single-wide with additions offers room for a large or extended family! Features 4 bedrooms plus an office, 2 bathrooms, 2 living areas, and a cozy wood-burning fireplace. Enjoy updated flooring, a bright sunroom, and a well-equipped workshop. The property includes a chicken coop, 3 storage sheds, and a fully fenced, landscaped yard on a . 26-acre lot--plus two adjoining . 26-acre lots ideal for rental homes, livestock, or extra space. Peaceful rural setting just 15-20 minutes from Bluewater Lake!

Key facts

• Bright sunroom
• Fully fenced yard
• Storage sheds

Tags

• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• BRIGHT SUNROOM
• WELL-EQUIPPED WORKSHOP
• CHICKEN COOP
• STORAGE SHEDS
• FULLY FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#307 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, schools B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grants-Cibola County Schools (town): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #74 of 95 in NM (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Cibola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.82%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $39,998
• Equity at exit: $40,468

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.03×
• Total profit: $101,453
• Equity at exit: $62,366

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87005

• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $357/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $683

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 510-char remark

   Show marketing remark (510 chars)

   Spacious single-wide with additions offers room for a large or extended family! Features 4 bedrooms plus an office, 2 bathrooms, 2 living areas, and a cozy wood-burning fireplace. Enjoy updated flooring, a bright sunroom, and a well-equipped workshop. The property includes a chicken coop, 3 storage sheds, and a fully fenced, landscaped yard on a . 26-acre lot--plus two adjoining . 26-acre lots ideal for rental homes, livestock, or extra space. Peaceful rural setting just 15-20 minutes from Bluewater Lake!

2. 2026-03-03
   price $90,000 510-char remark

   Show marketing remark (510 chars)

   Spacious single-wide with additions offers room for a large or extended family! Features 4 bedrooms plus an office, 2 bathrooms, 2 living areas, and a cozy wood-burning fireplace. Enjoy updated flooring, a bright sunroom, and a well-equipped workshop. The property includes a chicken coop, 3 storage sheds, and a fully fenced, landscaped yard on a . 26-acre lot--plus two adjoining . 26-acre lots ideal for rental homes, livestock, or extra space. Peaceful rural setting just 15-20 minutes from Bluewater Lake!

3. 2025-10-20
   listed $100,000 Active 510-char remark

   Show marketing remark (510 chars)

   Spacious single-wide with additions offers room for a large or extended family! Features 4 bedrooms plus an office, 2 bathrooms, 2 living areas, and a cozy wood-burning fireplace. Enjoy updated flooring, a bright sunroom, and a well-equipped workshop. The property includes a chicken coop, 3 storage sheds, and a fully fenced, landscaped yard on a . 26-acre lot--plus two adjoining . 26-acre lots ideal for rental homes, livestock, or extra space. Peaceful rural setting just 15-20 minutes from Bluewater Lake!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $357 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $720 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$363/yr (+$30/mo · 101.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$357
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,212
• − Management: −$1,212
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $4,261
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,023
• After-tax cash flow: $4,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grants-Cibola County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501170
• Math proficiency: 14% —
• Reading proficiency: 22% —
• Median HH income: $35,996
• Composite: 18.23/100
• National rank: #14064
• State rank: #74 of 95 in NM

Livability — Bluewater Village

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #26145

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bluewater Village, NM
• Population (ZIP): 30

Population outlook (Cibola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,324 people
• By 2030: 25,594 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 24,117 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 22,568 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 18,653 · -29.1%
• By 2100: 12,719 · -51.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Cibola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 29.6pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $90,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $100,000 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $357 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.