000 No Road Alexander Crk · Susitna, AK 99688

$135,000

3 bd · None ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 838 Days on market

Built 1993 Poor condition 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.4/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Own a piece of history! Rare 5 acre parcel and two cabins on Alexander Creek, surrounded by miles of public lands and the only private parcel in the section. Sits in the middle of prime hunting and fishing country with access by boat or aircraft in the Summer and snowmobile in the Winter. One cabin is a frame 20x28 and the other is a log 16x36 with an upper level. Selling As-is. This property was the original Ross Homestead. Several books have been written about their life at this property in the "Growing Up Wild" series and "Tales of the Trapline" by Janette Ross Riehle. The original log cabin from the 30s is still there and useable and has had the floor, windows, and roof replaced. The two story addition was put on around 1976. In 1993 a bunkhouse cabin was built further back on the lot. in 2011 the original cabin was moved to the other side of the two story cabin due to river erosion. The property was originally used for homesteading with trapping and mink farming. Since then it has been used for recreational hunting and fishing including a base for guiding international fishing clients. Black bear, brown bear, moose, and wolves have all been seen in the area.

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• Built 1993
• Listed 838 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $135k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 28/100 on livability (#334 in AK) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 215 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $554 of equity ($933 loan paydown + $-379 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 838 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 838 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.45%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $17,273
• Equity at exit: $37,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $60,452
• Equity at exit: $43,377

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99688

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,637 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $454	-5% $407	+0% $361	+5% $314	+10% $267
Rent	-10% $231	-5% $296	+0% $361	+5% $425	+10% $490
Rate	-1.0pp $429	-0.5pp $395	base $361	+0.5pp $326	+1.0pp $290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 838 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 837 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 836 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 835 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 833 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 832 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 830 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 829 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 828 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 827 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 823 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 822 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 821 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 820 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 819 DOM
16. 2025-08-15
    status Active 1216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1216 chars)

    Own a piece of history! Rare 5 acre parcel and two cabins on Alexander Creek, surrounded by miles of public lands and the only private parcel in the section. Sits in the middle of prime hunting and fishing country with access by boat or aircraft in the Summer and snowmobile in the Winter. One cabin is a frame 20x28 and the other is a log 16x36 with an upper level. Selling As-is. This property was the original Ross Homestead. Several books have been written about their life at this property in the "Growing Up Wild" series and "Tales of the Trapline" by Janette Ross Riehle. The original log cabin from the 30s is still there and useable and has had the floor, windows, and roof replaced. The two story addition was put on around 1976. In 1993 a bunkhouse cabin was built further back on the lot. in 2011 the original cabin was moved to the other side of the two story cabin due to river erosion. The property was originally used for homesteading with trapping and mink farming. Since then it has been used for recreational hunting and fishing including a base for guiding international fishing clients. Black bear, brown bear, moose, and wolves have all been seen in the area.

17. 2025-02-17
    status Active 1216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1216 chars)

    Own a piece of history! Rare 5 acre parcel and two cabins on Alexander Creek, surrounded by miles of public lands and the only private parcel in the section. Sits in the middle of prime hunting and fishing country with access by boat or aircraft in the Summer and snowmobile in the Winter. One cabin is a frame 20x28 and the other is a log 16x36 with an upper level. Selling As-is. This property was the original Ross Homestead. Several books have been written about their life at this property in the "Growing Up Wild" series and "Tales of the Trapline" by Janette Ross Riehle. The original log cabin from the 30s is still there and useable and has had the floor, windows, and roof replaced. The two story addition was put on around 1976. In 1993 a bunkhouse cabin was built further back on the lot. in 2011 the original cabin was moved to the other side of the two story cabin due to river erosion. The property was originally used for homesteading with trapping and mink farming. Since then it has been used for recreational hunting and fishing including a base for guiding international fishing clients. Black bear, brown bear, moose, and wolves have all been seen in the area.

18. 2024-02-26
    listed $135,000 Active 1216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1216 chars)

    Own a piece of history! Rare 5 acre parcel and two cabins on Alexander Creek, surrounded by miles of public lands and the only private parcel in the section. Sits in the middle of prime hunting and fishing country with access by boat or aircraft in the Summer and snowmobile in the Winter. One cabin is a frame 20x28 and the other is a log 16x36 with an upper level. Selling As-is. This property was the original Ross Homestead. Several books have been written about their life at this property in the "Growing Up Wild" series and "Tales of the Trapline" by Janette Ross Riehle. The original log cabin from the 30s is still there and useable and has had the floor, windows, and roof replaced. The two story addition was put on around 1976. In 1993 a bunkhouse cabin was built further back on the lot. in 2011 the original cabin was moved to the other side of the two story cabin due to river erosion. The property was originally used for homesteading with trapping and mink farming. Since then it has been used for recreational hunting and fishing including a base for guiding international fishing clients. Black bear, brown bear, moose, and wolves have all been seen in the area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,572
• − Management: −$1,572
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $2,316
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$556
• After-tax cash flow: $3,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This log cabin property requires extensive repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value. The property is in poor condition and lacks modern amenities, making it a significant investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen organization — Cluttered and disorganized
• Major Kitchen appliances — No visible appliances
• Major Roof repair — Snow-covered, indicating potential water damage
• Major Exterior paint — Peeling paint and visible rot
• Major Flooring repair — Worn and possibly damaged
• Major Painting interior walls — Painted walls show signs of wear and tear
• Major Window sealing — Windows appear to be old and possibly not sealed properly
• Major Foundation repair — Foundation and structure show signs of settling and potential structural issues

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A functional kitchen is essential for resale
• Resale Exterior painting and repairs — A well-maintained exterior enhances curb appeal
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained property attracts both buyers and renters
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems — Upgrading HVAC and mechanical systems improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Foundation repair — A stable foundation ensures the property's structural integrity and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen organization · Cluttered and disorganized	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen appliances · No visible appliances	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof repair · Snow-covered, indicating potential water damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior paint · Peeling paint and visible rot	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring repair · Worn and possibly damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
Painting interior walls · Painted walls show signs of wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Window sealing · Windows appear to be old and possibly not sealed properly	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation repair · Foundation and structure show signs of settling and potential structural issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A functional kitchen is essential for resale ↑
• Resale Exterior painting and repairs — A well-maintained exterior enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained property attracts both buyers and renters ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems — Upgrading HVAC and mechanical systems improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Foundation repair — A stable foundation ensures the property's structural integrity and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Susitna

• Score: 28/100
• State rank: #334
• US rank: #27965

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Susitna, AK
• Population (ZIP): 2,542

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.28%
• Current HPI: 168.6582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-15 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2025-02-17 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2024-02-26 Listed $135,000 AKMLS