4221 Lindsey Gap Rd · Cosby, TN 37722

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Other public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1993 0.57 ac lot $296/sqft · 37% above area Est $353k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

1638 square feet Doublewide manufactured home recently remodeled. 3 Bedroom, 2 full bathrooms, extra room. Large covered front porch. Home was placed on site within the past year. However, is an older remodeled home. Looks terrific. Well-kept home. Metal roof, vinyl replacement windows, Heat package electric heat and air conditioning. Located in beautiful Cosby Tennessee. Short drive to Interstate I-40 exit. Nice rural setting.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Recently remodeled
• Nice rural setting

Tags

• RECENTLY REMODELED
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• METAL ROOF
• VINYL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• NICE RURAL SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected (220 volts in laundry)
• Home design: Manufactured house; One story
• Construction: Asphalt roof; 1,638 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Metal fireplace; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-255 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.3% in Cosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cocke County (rural): math 21% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #112 of 139 in TN (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smoky Mountain Elementary (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #369 of 952 statewide, top 42%, 178 students, 0% FRL); Cosby High School (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 326 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 71% district-wide (71 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cocke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cocke County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,162 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.07%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,958
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -43.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $92,176
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $284,363
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37722

• Home prices YoY: 27.9%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,502 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,825

Max offer price $162,040

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-118	-5% $-187	+0% $-255	+5% $-324	+10% $-393
Rent	-10% $-374	-5% $-315	+0% $-255	+5% $-196	+10% $-137
Rate	-1.0pp $-155	-0.5pp $-205	base $-255	+0.5pp $-307	+1.0pp $-359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $199,000 Active 431-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 100% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$1,792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,442
• − Management: −$1,442
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$6,577
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,579
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cocke County
• NCES district ID: 4700750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $33,486
• Composite: 17.17/100
• National rank: #9109
• State rank: #112 of 139 in TN

Livability — Cosby

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,430

Population outlook (Cocke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,586 people
• By 2030: 32,394 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 29,727 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 27,075 · -19.4%
• By 2075: 22,590 · -32.7%
• By 2100: 19,643 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cocke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.2) · D 15.4% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -68.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.2 2020: R+64.8 2016: R+64.5 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 85.12%
• Current HPI: 390.2959
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $199,000 LAAR

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $108 · +18.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.