12 River Street St · Chateaugay, NY 12920

$63,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,113 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 303 Days on market

Built 1960 5,662 sqft lot $57/sqft · 33% below area ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Conveniently located steps from Chateaugay School this home offers a spacious private yard and large finished bar shed in the backyard, great for entertaining or relaxing outdoors. There is a large primary bedroom with a large closet. This home offers two bedrooms and two bathrooms with an on demand propane hot water heating system. There is also a two car garage.

Key facts

• Private yard
• Finished bar shed
• 5,662 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIVATE YARD
• FINISHED BAR SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $64k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($906 rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#694 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Chateaugay Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #515 of 755 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($439 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.

Recommended offer $55,880 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.49%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,790
• List price: $63,500
• Delta: -54.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $23,170
• Equity at exit: $33,444

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $62,053
• Equity at exit: $55,722

Cash invested: $17,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12920

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $906 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$333
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $63,500

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,875
• Closing costs: $1,905
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $63,500 Active 303 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $63,500 Active 302 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $63,500 Active 301 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $63,500 Active 300 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $63,500 Active 298 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $63,500 Active 297 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $63,500 Active 294 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $63,500 Active 293 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $63,500 Active 292 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $63,500 Active 291 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $63,500 Active 288 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $63,500 Active 287 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $63,500 Active 286 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $63,500 Active 285 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    status Active 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Conveniently located steps from Chateaugay School this home offers a spacious private yard and large finished bar shed in the backyard, great for entertaining or relaxing outdoors. There is a large primary bedroom with a large closet. This home offers two bedrooms and two bathrooms with an on demand propane hot water heating system. There is also a two car garage.

16. 2026-05-02
    price $63,500 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Conveniently located steps from Chateaugay School this home offers a spacious private yard and large finished bar shed in the backyard, great for entertaining or relaxing outdoors. There is a large primary bedroom with a large closet. This home offers two bedrooms and two bathrooms with an on demand propane hot water heating system. There is also a two car garage.

17. 2026-05-02
    historical 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Conveniently located steps from Chateaugay School this home offers a spacious private yard and large finished bar shed in the backyard, great for entertaining or relaxing outdoors. There is a large primary bedroom with a large closet. This home offers two bedrooms and two bathrooms with an on demand propane hot water heating system. There is also a two car garage.

18. 2025-08-19
    listed $69,000 Active 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Conveniently located steps from Chateaugay School this home offers a spacious private yard and large finished bar shed in the backyard, great for entertaining or relaxing outdoors. There is a large primary bedroom with a large closet. This home offers two bedrooms and two bathrooms with an on demand propane hot water heating system. There is also a two car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,235 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,235 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,557
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$870
• − Management: −$870
• − Depreciation: −$1,847
• Taxable income: $1,178
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$283
• After-tax cash flow: $1,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chateaugay Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607080
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,279
• Composite: 42.66/100
• National rank: #6803
• State rank: #515 of 755 in NY

Livability — Chateaugay

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #694
• US rank: #13108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chateaugay, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,509

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.33%
• Current HPI: 300.5209
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Relisted — ACVMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $63,500 ACVMLS
• 2026-05-02 Delisted — ACVMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $69,000 ACVMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,235 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.