451 Wellesley St · Wellesley, MA 02493

$4,800,000

5 bd · 6.5 ba · 9,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1997 5.64 ac lot $522/sqft · 32% below area Est $9300k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on 5.6 private acres on Weston’s highly desirable south side, this impressive estate offers exceptional privacy and timeless appeal. Tucked at the end of a long, winding driveway, this Federal Colonial blends classic architecture with comfortable living, featuring sun-filled interiors, a dramatic two-story family room with fireplace, a bright sunroom, and a stylish home office. The flexible layout includes a first-floor bedroom suite ideal for guests, while upstairs offers five bedrooms, including a spacious primary suite with fireplace, luxurious bath, dressing area, and multiple walk-in closets, along with four additional bedrooms and three full baths. The finished walk-out lower level with a separate entrance includes a kitchen, bedroom, full bath, exercise and media rooms—perfect for extended living or entertaining. Complete with a five-car garage and located just minutes from the state’s top public schools, with convenient access to Boston.

Key facts

• Private acres
• Federal colonial
• Sunroom

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• LONG WINDING DRIVEWAY
• FEDERAL COLONIAL
• TWO STORY FAMILY ROOM
• SUNROOM
• HOME OFFICE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/6.5-bath single-family listed at $4.80M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11k ($-133k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.84M (40.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.50M (47.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.50M (47.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 1.6% in Wellesley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#13 in MA, #568 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Weston (suburban): math 71% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #7 of 302 in MA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Country (math 44% / reading 74%, grade B-, #167 of 938 statewide, top 21%, 331 students, 0% FRL); Weston Middle (math 72% / reading 76%, grade A, #5 of 305 statewide, top 2%, 444 students, 0% FRL); Weston High (math 87% / reading 82%, grade A, #22 of 343 statewide, top 8%, 639 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $106k of equity ($33k loan paydown + $72k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$273k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($4.51M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $4.00M; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 48% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,500,000 (47.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.90%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $9,300,048
• List price: $4,800,000
• Delta: -48.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-496,791
• Equity at exit: $1,767,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-293,018
• Equity at exit: $2,450,863

Cash invested: $1,344,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 02493

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$25,172
• Tax from tax record: −$3,666 /mo · $43,987/yr
• Insurance: −$2,000
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $-11,087

Break-even live

Break-even rent $39,035

Max offer price $2,841,380

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-8,370	-5% $-9,729	+0% $-11,087	+5% $-12,446	+10% $-13,804
Rent	-10% $-13,062	-5% $-12,075	+0% $-11,087	+5% $-10,100	+10% $-9,112
Rate	-1.0pp $-8,670	-0.5pp $-9,866	base $-11,087	+0.5pp $-12,331	+1.0pp $-13,596

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,200,000
• Closing costs: $144,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
63 Sylvan Ln Weston, MA	5.0	5.5	11990	$25,000	$2.09	0d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $4,800,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $4,800,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $4,800,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $4,800,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $4,800,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    listed $4,800,000 New 981-char remark

    Show marketing remark (981 chars)

    Set on 5.6 private acres on Weston’s highly desirable south side, this impressive estate offers exceptional privacy and timeless appeal. Tucked at the end of a long, winding driveway, this Federal Colonial blends classic architecture with comfortable living, featuring sun-filled interiors, a dramatic two-story family room with fireplace, a bright sunroom, and a stylish home office. The flexible layout includes a first-floor bedroom suite ideal for guests, while upstairs offers five bedrooms, including a spacious primary suite with fireplace, luxurious bath, dressing area, and multiple walk-in closets, along with four additional bedrooms and three full baths. The finished walk-out lower level with a separate entrance includes a kitchen, bedroom, full bath, exercise and media rooms—perfect for extended living or entertaining. Complete with a five-car garage and located just minutes from the state’s top public schools, with convenient access to Boston.

16. 2023-08-02
    soldstatus $4,000,000 Sold 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    Spectacular, updated, private estate sited on 5.6 acres on the South side across from Weston High School. Down a winding driveway, this 20 room Federal colonial offers a perfect blend of elegance, luxury and grandeur yet is comfortable for everyday family living. From the two story family room with fireplace to the bright sunroom to the stylish home office, this home has space for all. The flexible floor plan offers a beautiful first floor bedroom suite and five bedrooms upstairs including the expansive fireplaced primary bedroom with stunning bath, multiple walk-in closets and dressing area. Four additional bedrooms and three baths complete the second floor and the walk-out lower level with separate entrance, kitchen, bedroom, bath, exercise and media room is ideal for long term guests, an au pair or adult children returning home. The generous grounds include a sprawling brick patio, private yard and space for a pool. An ideal location with easy access to Boston & Logan Airport!

17. 2023-06-29
    status Under Agreement 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    Spectacular, updated, private estate sited on 5.6 acres on the South side across from Weston High School. Down a winding driveway, this 20 room Federal colonial offers a perfect blend of elegance, luxury and grandeur yet is comfortable for everyday family living. From the two story family room with fireplace to the bright sunroom to the stylish home office, this home has space for all. The flexible floor plan offers a beautiful first floor bedroom suite and five bedrooms upstairs including the expansive fireplaced primary bedroom with stunning bath, multiple walk-in closets and dressing area. Four additional bedrooms and three baths complete the second floor and the walk-out lower level with separate entrance, kitchen, bedroom, bath, exercise and media room is ideal for long term guests, an au pair or adult children returning home. The generous grounds include a sprawling brick patio, private yard and space for a pool. An ideal location with easy access to Boston & Logan Airport!

18. 2023-06-15
    historical Contingent 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    Spectacular, updated, private estate sited on 5.6 acres on the South side across from Weston High School. Down a winding driveway, this 20 room Federal colonial offers a perfect blend of elegance, luxury and grandeur yet is comfortable for everyday family living. From the two story family room with fireplace to the bright sunroom to the stylish home office, this home has space for all. The flexible floor plan offers a beautiful first floor bedroom suite and five bedrooms upstairs including the expansive fireplaced primary bedroom with stunning bath, multiple walk-in closets and dressing area. Four additional bedrooms and three baths complete the second floor and the walk-out lower level with separate entrance, kitchen, bedroom, bath, exercise and media room is ideal for long term guests, an au pair or adult children returning home. The generous grounds include a sprawling brick patio, private yard and space for a pool. An ideal location with easy access to Boston & Logan Airport!

19. 2023-03-29
    listed $4,450,000 New 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    Spectacular, updated, private estate sited on 5.6 acres on the South side across from Weston High School. Down a winding driveway, this 20 room Federal colonial offers a perfect blend of elegance, luxury and grandeur yet is comfortable for everyday family living. From the two story family room with fireplace to the bright sunroom to the stylish home office, this home has space for all. The flexible floor plan offers a beautiful first floor bedroom suite and five bedrooms upstairs including the expansive fireplaced primary bedroom with stunning bath, multiple walk-in closets and dressing area. Four additional bedrooms and three baths complete the second floor and the walk-out lower level with separate entrance, kitchen, bedroom, bath, exercise and media room is ideal for long term guests, an au pair or adult children returning home. The generous grounds include a sprawling brick patio, private yard and space for a pool. An ideal location with easy access to Boston & Logan Airport!

20. 2013-11-12
    soldstatus $3,900,000 Sold
21. 2013-08-12
    historical Under Agreement
22. 2013-05-28
    price $3,999,999 Price Changed
23. 2013-05-14
    price $4,150,000 Price Changed
24. 2012-12-04
    price $4,299,000 Price Changed
25. 2012-11-28
    listed $4,495,000 New
26. 2007-03-29
    soldstatus $4,450,000
27. 2007-03-29
    soldstatus $4,450,000
28. 2007-02-16
    historical
29. 2006-10-12
    listed $4,800,000
30. 1998-05-01
    soldstatus $1,972,000
31. 1988-06-01
    soldstatus $222,000
32. 1987-04-28
    soldstatus $205,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $43,987 · $3,666/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $51,514 · $4,293/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,526/yr (+$627/mo · 17.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 48% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $300,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$268,875
• − Property taxes: −$43,987
• − Insurance: −$24,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,000
• − Management: −$24,000
• − Depreciation: −$139,636
• Taxable loss: −$224,498
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$53,880
• After-tax cash flow: $-79,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weston
• NCES district ID: 2512750
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $164,610
• Composite: 73.62/100
• National rank: #175
• State rank: #7 of 302 in MA

Livability — Wellesley

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #568

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 17,415
• Population (ZIP): 11,443

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,740,269 people
• By 2030: 1,817,187 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 1,963,195 · +12.8%
• By 2050: 2,087,461 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 2,344,036 · +34.7%
• By 2100: 2,383,776 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 13% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 5% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Indo-European 9% Chinese 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.5) · D 68.5% · R 29.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.3pp toward D · 2008: 30.1pp · 2024: 39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.5 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+38.1 2012: D+26.9 2008: D+30.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.51%
• Current HPI: 272.692
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+2241.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $4,800,000 MLS PIN
• 2023-08-02 Sold (MLS) $4,000,000 MLS PIN
• 2023-06-29 Pending — MLS PIN
• 2023-06-15 Contingent — MLS PIN
• 2023-03-29 Listed $4,450,000 MLS PIN
• 2013-11-12 Sold (MLS) $3,900,000 MLS PIN
• 2013-08-12 Contingent — MLS PIN
• 2013-05-28 Price Changed $3,999,999 MLS PIN
• 2013-05-14 Price Changed $4,150,000 MLS PIN
• 2012-12-04 Price Changed $4,299,000 MLS PIN
• 2012-11-28 Listed $4,495,000 MLS PIN
• 2007-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $4,450,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-29 Sold (MLS) $4,450,000 MLS PIN
• 2007-02-16 Listing Removed — MLS PIN
• 2006-10-12 Listed $4,800,000 MLS PIN
• 1998-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,972,000 Public Records
• 1988-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $222,000 Public Records
• 1987-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $43,987 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.