515 Mccloud Ct · Jarrell, TX 76537

$164,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot Est $190k · 13% under $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Gates - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to an outdoor space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion September 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DIRECT ACCESS OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $164,999

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home; Address: 515 McCloud Ct, Jarrell, TX
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1192

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Gates plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.7% in Jarrell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $162,524 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.01%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $189,528
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
273 Kings Row Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,213 (+2%)	2mo	$193,990	$160	89
444 Jones Beach Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,213 (+2%)	1mo	$188,990	$156	87
254 Kings Row Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,213 (+2%)	2mo	$200,990	$166	87
237 Kings Row Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,213 (+2%)	3mo	$199,990	$165	85
112 Kings Row Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,213 (+2%)	4mo	$192,990	$159	80
121 Texas Angel Way	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	1mo	$198,999	$147	76
468 Jones Beach Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	1mo	$220,990	$163	69
261 Kings Row Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	1mo	$200,990	$148	69
266 Kings Row Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	2mo	$210,990	$156	68
249 Kings Row Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	2mo	$196,990	$145	68
420 Jones Beach Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	1mo	$217,990	$161	65
213 Kings Row Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	4mo	$197,990	$146	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-21,998
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-26,139
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 761
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,570

Max offer price $164,999

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
133 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	24d	1	0.07mi
337 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,535	$1.09	20d	1	0.08mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	44d	1	0.08mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	4d	1	0.08mi
856 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,600	$1.11	44d	1	0.20mi
253 Tugboat Annie Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	15d	1	0.23mi
516 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,700	$1.33	44d	1	0.27mi
564 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	3d	1	0.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,999 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,999 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,999 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,999 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,999 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,999 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,999 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,999 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $164,999 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 599-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $164,999 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,999 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,999 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,695
• − Management: −$1,695
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$180
• After-tax cash flow: $2,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 16 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan and a well-maintained exterior, making it a move-in-ready property with good potential for value enhancement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Reorganizing closets — Maximizes storage and improves aesthetics
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Reorganizing closets — Maximizes storage and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B