138 W Cherry Dr · Petal, MS 39465

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1949 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to add to your rental portfolio or start your next investment project in the heart of Petal. This home offers a functional layout with a spacious living area, large kitchen, and even a second building for a shop, office, etc! Previously used as a rental, this home has proven income potential and is ready for your finishing touches. With a little TLC, this property could quickly be rent-ready or positioned for a great flip. Easy access to local amenities and walking distance to most. This opportunity won't last long. Get your showing today!

Key facts

• Second building
• Spacious living area
• Large kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• LARGE KITCHEN
• SECOND BUILDING
• PROVEN INCOME POTENTIAL
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL AMENITIES
• WALKING DISTANCE TO MOST

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence, house; One story; Raised foundation
• Construction: Asbestos construction materials; Architectural shingle roof; Built (year source: Public Records)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Lot about 0.3 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (type: Other); Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Electric range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 4.0% in Petal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#18 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Petal School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #2 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Petal Primary School (1,096 students, 100% FRL); Petal Middle School (math 72% / reading 55%, grade B+, #3 of 179 statewide, top 2%, 745 students, 100% FRL); Petal High School (math 53% / reading 49%, grade D+, #17 of 197 statewide, top 9%, 1,288 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 49% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 231 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 121 units permitted in Forrest County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Forrest County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.67%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,168
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Wilson Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,326 (+4%)	3mo	$100,000	$75	59
102 Smith St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,391 (+9%)	2mo	$199,900	$144	50
310 E Cherry Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-14%)	8mo	$165,000	$150	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $6,213
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $32,349
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39465

• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,301/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $351	+0% $326	+5% $300	+10% $275
Rent	-10% $225	-5% $275	+0% $326	+5% $376	+10% $427
Rate	-1.0pp $371	-0.5pp $349	base $326	+0.5pp $302	+1.0pp $279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 E First Ave Petal, MS	2.0	1.0	1062	$995	$0.94	45d	1	0.41mi
523 E Fifth Ave Petal, MS	3.0	1.0	1098	$1,500	$1.37	22d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $90,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $90,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 21 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    status Active
19. 2026-05-12
    status Active 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Great opportunity to add to your rental portfolio or start your next investment project in the heart of Petal. This home offers a functional layout with a spacious living area, large kitchen, and even a second building for a shop, office, etc! Previously used as a rental, this home has proven income potential and is ready for your finishing touches. With a little TLC, this property could quickly be rent-ready or positioned for a great flip. Easy access to local amenities and walking distance to most. This opportunity won't last long. Get your showing today!

20. 2026-04-23
    status Pending 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Great opportunity to add to your rental portfolio or start your next investment project in the heart of Petal. This home offers a functional layout with a spacious living area, large kitchen, and even a second building for a shop, office, etc! Previously used as a rental, this home has proven income potential and is ready for your finishing touches. With a little TLC, this property could quickly be rent-ready or positioned for a great flip. Easy access to local amenities and walking distance to most. This opportunity won't last long. Get your showing today!

21. 2026-04-23
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Great opportunity to add to your rental portfolio or start your next investment project in the heart of Petal. This home offers a functional layout with a spacious living area, large kitchen, and even a second building for a shop, office, etc! Previously used as a rental, this home has proven income potential and is ready for your finishing touches. With a little TLC, this property could quickly be rent-ready or positioned for a great flip. Easy access to local amenities and walking distance to most. This opportunity won't last long. Get your showing today!

22. 2026-04-11
    listed $90,000 Active 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Great opportunity to add to your rental portfolio or start your next investment project in the heart of Petal. This home offers a functional layout with a spacious living area, large kitchen, and even a second building for a shop, office, etc! Previously used as a rental, this home has proven income potential and is ready for your finishing touches. With a little TLC, this property could quickly be rent-ready or positioned for a great flip. Easy access to local amenities and walking distance to most. This opportunity won't last long. Get your showing today!

23. 2026-04-10
    listed $90,000 Active
24. 2020-08-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,301 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,301 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,301
• − Insurance: −$1,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,227
• − Management: −$1,227
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $2,679
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$643
• After-tax cash flow: $3,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Petal School District
• NCES district ID: 2803530
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,872
• Composite: 52.97/100
• National rank: #1526
• State rank: #2 of 130 in MS

Livability — Petal

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #5565

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petal, MS
• County: Forrest County · 65,413 people
• City population: 22,882
• Metro: Hattiesburg, MS
• Population (ZIP): 22,882
• Household income: $74,035
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Forrest County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 79,264 people
• By 2030: 80,822 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 82,979 · +4.7%
• By 2050: 84,324 · +6.4%
• By 2075: 84,942 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 80,616 · +1.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Forrest

• 2024 margin: R (+17.9) · D 40.3% · R 58.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -17.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.9 2020: R+11.1 2016: R+14.2 2012: R+11.7 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.97%
• Current HPI: 158.6021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hattiesburg, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-05-12 Relisted — HAAR
• 2026-04-23 Pending — HAAR
• 2026-04-23 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-11 Listed $90,000 HAAR
• 2026-04-10 Listed $90,000 MLSU
• 2020-08-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,301 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.