1160 E Lakeshore Dr W · Shelton, WA 98584

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1993 0.50 ac lot $152/sqft · 49% below area Est $272k · 49% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity on a half-acre corner lot in a cul-de-sac in Timberlakes. The existing home offers potential for a full remodel or tear down, with value in the land and key improvements already in place—including a 3-bedroom septic system and detached garage. Spacious yard with additional upside from the adjacent wooded lot. Cash sale only, sold as-is. Ideal for investors, builders, or buyers looking to create something new.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Half-acre corner lot
• Adjacent wooded lot

Tags

• HALF-ACRE CORNER LOT
• CUL-DE-SAC
• 3-BEDROOM SEPTIC SYSTEM
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SPACIOUS YARD
• ADJACENT WOODED LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition noted as fixer; Lot is approximately 0.5 acre (lots 102 & 103)
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $280 (includes road maintenance); association contact: Angie; Community features include boat launch, CCRs, club house, playground, trails; No senior exemption indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; One covered space; Two uncovered/off-street spaces; Driveway
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Community water (Timberlakes); Septic sewer; Electric water heater; Power via PUD 3
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Manufactured on land (Residential); One story; Entry on main level; Facing level topography
• Construction: Built 1993 (effective year); Wood construction; Composition roof; Tie down foundation; Marlette Homes model 1828
• Exterior features: Wood products siding; Deck; Outbuildings; Fruit trees; Garden space; Wooded; Paved site; Value in land

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Kitchen with eating space
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level; Possible third bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub and separate shower (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Tie down foundation
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (main level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.1% in Shelton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#203 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, commute F.
• Pioneer School District (rural): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #188 of 291 in WA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pioneer Elementary School (503 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $140k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.00%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,104
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -48.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
141 E Elk Pl	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+4%)	11mo	$287,000	$299	67
260 E Tahuya Dr	0.52mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	10mo	$255,000	$276	67
421 E Agate Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0	840 (-9%)	3mo	$90,000	$107	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,899
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $25,072
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98584

• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,083/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,147

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $140,000 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $140,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $140,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-05-12
    status Active
11. 2026-05-11
    status Pending
12. 2026-05-06
    listed $150,000 Active
13. 2019-01-18
    soldstatus $90,000 Sold
14. 2019-01-18
    soldstatus $90,000
15. 2019-01-04
    status Pending
16. 2018-12-20
    status Pending Inspection
17. 2018-11-27
    price $99,900
18. 2018-11-14
    price $109,900
19. 2018-10-26
    listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,083 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$289/yr (+$24/mo · 26.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,083
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,750
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$420
• After-tax cash flow: $3,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pioneer School District
• NCES district ID: 5306750
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $51,151
• Composite: 40.15/100
• National rank: #7840
• State rank: #188 of 291 in WA

Livability — Shelton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #203
• US rank: #5586

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mason County · 40,606 people
• City population: 40,606
• Metro: Shelton, WA
• Population (ZIP): 40,606
• Household income: $78,610
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 687.0

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,005 people
• By 2030: 58,567 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 54,735 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 51,470 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 46,276 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 39,883 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.2% · R 49.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.0 2012: D+6.9 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.42%
• Current HPI: 199.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Shelton, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+16.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $140,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $150,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-18 Sold (MLS) $90,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-27 Price Changed $99,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-14 Price Changed $109,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-26 Listed $119,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+37.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,083 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.