21611 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl · Waller, TX 77484

$244,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily · 117 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 2-car garage $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful New Construction Home with a great open floor plan. Details and upgrades include beautiful architectural shingles, not your "simple" three-tab shingles. All new gas appliances included. Beautiful backsplash in the kitchen and showers. Tankless water heater so you enjoy more space in your garage and sprinkler system to keep your yard lush all year. You must see!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Gas appliances
• Sprinkler system

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ARCHITECTURAL SHINGLES
• GAS APPLIANCES
• BACKSPLASH IN KITCHEN
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM

🏗️ New construction. The $244,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $262,176.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-327 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1877 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 146d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,857 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.35%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,176
• List price: $244,900
• Delta: -6.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21510 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-3%)	0mo	$234,990	$146	92
21626 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-3%)	3mo	$234,990	$146	91
21518 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-3%)	4mo	$241,990	$151	88
21647 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-3%)	3mo	$253,490	$158	83
29543 Pondview Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,621 (-2%)	4mo	$259,990	$160	81
21522 Berry Crest Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (-2%)	3mo	$252,190	$156	81
29527 Barnview Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-1%)	4mo	$271,990	$166	78
29414 Meadowcreek Hill Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,715 (+4%)	4mo	$305,460	$178	74
29507 Meadowcreek Hill Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-5%)	0mo	$248,990	$158	73
29535 Pondview Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (-8%)	3mo	$269,000	$177	71
21518 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-15%)	1mo	$232,990	$165	67
29531 Saddleview Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-5%)	3mo	$227,990	$145	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-68,896
• Equity at exit: $39,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-108,359
• Equity at exit: $22,668

Cash invested: $73,409 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 68 active · 54 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.1 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $260,990 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1877
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,375
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$328 /mo · $3,933/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,333

Max offer price $214,834

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-146	-5% $-237	+0% $-327	+5% $-418	+10% $-508
Rent	-10% $-479	-5% $-403	+0% $-327	+5% $-251	+10% $-176
Rate	-1.0pp $-195	-0.5pp $-260	base $-327	+0.5pp $-395	+1.0pp $-464

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,544
• Closing costs: $7,865
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21531 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl Waller, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,750	$1.06	130d	1	0.02mi
21707 Cottonwood Meadows Trl Waller, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,749	$1.27	165d	1	0.13mi
21514 Barnridge Ct Waller, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,895	$1.15	146d	1	0.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Lennar HomesLiving area approximately 1,650
• HOA & community: Community managed by First Service ResidentialHOA fee $375 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerTankless water heater
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2025)Faces northSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick and stucco constructionComposition roofBuilt in 2025
• Exterior features: Sprinkler/irrigation systemSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorTankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: CarpetPlank flooringVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer includedDryer includedElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $31/mo · $372/yr

• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-26
   days on market $244,900 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-10-26
   days on market $244,900 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-10-24
   days on market $244,900 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-10-23
   days on market $244,900 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-10-22
   days on market $244,900 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-10-21
   days on market $244,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-10-20
   days on market $244,900 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-10-19
   days on market $244,900 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-10-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-10-17
    days on market $244,900 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-10-16
    days on market $244,900 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-10-15
    days on market $244,900 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-10-14
    days on market $244,900 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-10-13
    days on market $244,900 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-10-12
    days on market $244,900 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-10-11
    days on market $244,900 Active 102 DOM
17. 2026-10-10
    days on market $244,900 Active 101 DOM
18. 2026-10-09
    days on market $244,900 Active 100 DOM
19. 2026-10-08
    days on market $244,900 Active 99 DOM
20. 2026-10-07
    days on market $244,900 Active 98 DOM
21. 2026-10-06
    days on market $244,900 Active 97 DOM
22. 2026-10-05
    days on market $244,900 Active 96 DOM
23. 2026-10-04
    days on market $244,900 Active 95 DOM
24. 2026-10-04
    days on market $244,900 Active 94 DOM
25. 2026-10-02
    days on market $244,900 Active 93 DOM
26. 2026-10-01
    days on market $244,900 Active 92 DOM
27. 2026-09-30
    days on market $244,900 Active 91 DOM
28. 2026-09-29
    days on market $244,900 Active 90 DOM
29. 2026-09-28
    days on market $244,900 Active 89 DOM
30. 2026-09-27
    days on market $244,900 Active 88 DOM
31. 2026-09-26
    days on market $244,900 Active 87 DOM
32. 2026-09-25
    days on market $244,900 Active 86 DOM
33. 2026-09-24
    days on market $244,900 Active 85 DOM
34. 2026-09-23
    days on market $244,900 Active 84 DOM
35. 2026-09-22
    days on market $244,900 Active 83 DOM
36. 2026-09-21
    days on market $244,900 Active 82 DOM
37. 2026-09-20
    days on market $244,900 Active 81 DOM
38. 2026-09-19
    days on market $244,900 Active 80 DOM
39. 2026-09-18
    days on market $244,900 Active 79 DOM
40. 2026-09-17
    days on market $244,900 Active 78 DOM
41. 2026-09-16
    days on market $244,900 Active 77 DOM
42. 2026-09-15
    days on market $244,900 Active 76 DOM
43. 2026-09-14
    days on market $244,900 Active 75 DOM
44. 2026-09-13
    days on market $244,900 Active 74 DOM
45. 2026-09-12
    days on market $244,900 Active 73 DOM
46. 2026-09-05
    days on market $244,900 Active 66 DOM
47. 2026-09-04
    days on market $244,900 Active 65 DOM
48. 2026-09-03
    days on market $244,900 Active 64 DOM
49. 2026-08-31
    days on market $244,900 Active 61 DOM
50. 2026-08-30
    days on market $244,900 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,686
• − Property taxes: −$3,933
• − Insurance: −$1,311
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$7,627
• Taxable loss: −$8,589
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,061
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a good layout. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Improves convenience and can add value ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can add value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Lennar HomesLiving area approximately 1,650
• HOA & community: Community managed by First Service ResidentialHOA fee $375 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerTankless water heater
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2025)Faces northSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick and stucco constructionComposition roofBuilt in 2025
• Exterior features: Sprinkler/irrigation systemSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorTankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: CarpetPlank flooringVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer includedDryer includedElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-01 Listed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $287,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $237,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $250,690 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $259,390 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $263,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $268,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $278,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $287,990 HARMLS