21611 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl · Houston, TX 77484

$249,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW Village Builder Avante Collection "Linfield" Plan Elevation "A" in Binford Creek! This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Gas appliances
• Sprinkler system

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ARCHITECTURAL SHINGLES
• GAS APPLIANCES
• BACKSPLASH IN KITCHEN
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: First Service Residential; Annual association fee of $375

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2025); Faces north; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built by Lennar Homes; Brick and stucco exterior; Composition roof; Year built 2025
• Exterior features: Sprinkler/irrigation system; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $249,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $266,646.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1196 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,364 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.42%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,646
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: 0.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21531 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+0%)	1mo	$289,990	$175	98
21519 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-1%)	0mo	$258,140	$158	91
21606 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-3%)	1mo	$257,990	$161	91
29507 Barnview Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+0%)	0mo	$269,990	$163	86
21623 Colonial Meadow Trl	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (+6%)	1mo	$297,990	$170	81
21610 Berry Crest Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,749 (+6%)	1mo	$262,690	$150	77
29510 Pondview Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (-6%)	1mo	$289,999	$188	74
21707 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,792 (+9%)	1mo	$307,990	$172	73
29515 Pondview Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (+6%)	2mo	$253,940	$145	71
21703 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+14%)	1mo	$321,990	$171	67
21610 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-14%)	2mo	$245,990	$173	66
21526 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-15%)	1mo	$232,990	$165	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-66,607
• Equity at exit: $39,758

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-103,275
• Equity at exit: $23,055

Cash invested: $74,661 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1196
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,398
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$333 /mo · $4,000/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,372

Max offer price $226,845

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-91	-5% $-183	+0% $-275	+5% $-367	+10% $-459
Rent	-10% $-435	-5% $-355	+0% $-275	+5% $-195	+10% $-115
Rate	-1.0pp $-141	-0.5pp $-207	base $-275	+0.5pp $-344	+1.0pp $-414

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,661
• Closing costs: $7,999
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21707 Cottonwood Meadows Trl Waller, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,749	$1.27	26d	1	0.13mi
21514 Barnridge Ct Waller, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,895	$1.15	7d	1	0.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $249,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $269,000 Active 383-char remark
15. 2026-04-23
    soldstatus Closed 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    NEW Village Builder Avante Collection "Linfield" Plan Elevation "A" in Binford Creek! This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

16. 2026-04-02
    status Pending 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    NEW Village Builder Avante Collection "Linfield" Plan Elevation "A" in Binford Creek! This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

17. 2026-04-02
    price $287,990 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    NEW Village Builder Avante Collection "Linfield" Plan Elevation "A" in Binford Creek! This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

18. 2026-03-30
    listed $237,990 Active 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    NEW Village Builder Avante Collection "Linfield" Plan Elevation "A" in Binford Creek! This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

19. 2026-03-29
    historical
20. 2026-03-24
    price $250,690
21. 2026-03-13
    price $259,390
22. 2026-03-03
    price $263,990
23. 2026-02-18
    price $268,990
24. 2026-01-07
    price $278,990
25. 2025-12-08
    listed $287,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,936
• − Property taxes: −$4,000
• − Insurance: −$1,333
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$7,757
• Taxable loss: −$8,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,920
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a good layout. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can add value
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can add value
• Both Adding a smart home system — Improves convenience and can add value
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can add value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Improves convenience and can add value ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can add value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $287,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $237,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $250,690 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $259,390 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $263,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $268,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $278,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $287,990 HARMLS