Is 21611 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl in Waller, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.7% cap rate and $-358/mo modeled cash flow at a $244,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 21611 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl?

The modeled cap rate is 4.7% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,919/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 33.66

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.3/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.7/10.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Appreciation +2.9/10.0
1% rule +2.2/10.0
Rent growth +1.6/5.0
DSCR +1.4/10.0

$244,900

21611 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl · Waller, TX 77484

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 2-car garage $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Beautiful New Construction Home with a great open floor plan. Details and upgrades include beautiful architectural shingles, not your "simple" three-tab shingles. All new gas appliances included. Beautiful backsplash in the kitchen and showers. Tankless water heater so you enjoy more space in your garage and sprinkler system to keep your yard lush all year. You must see!

Key facts

Open floor plan
Gas appliances
Sprinkler system

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-358 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (12.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (21.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $192k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.3% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,857 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.72% ✗
Cap rate: 4.68%
Cash-on-cash: -5.75%
DSCR: 0.74
GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $266,646
List price: $244,900
Delta: 0.88%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21518 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-3%)	1mo	$241,990	$151	90
21519 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-1%)	2mo	$258,140	$158	90
21647 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-3%)	0mo	$253,490	$158	86
29507 Barnview Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+0%)	2mo	$269,990	$163	84
29543 Pondview Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,621 (-2%)	0mo	$259,990	$160	84
29527 Barnview Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-1%)	0mo	$271,990	$166	81
29414 Meadowcreek Hill Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,715 (+4%)	1mo	$305,460	$178	76
29535 Pondview Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (-8%)	0mo	$269,000	$177	74
29510 Pondview Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (-6%)	2mo	$289,999	$188	73
21703 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+14%)	2mo	$321,990	$171	65
29531 Saddleview Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-5%)	0mo	$227,990	$145	65
21506 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-15%)	1mo	$236,990	$168	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.6%
Equity multiple: 0.04×
Total profit: $-71,587
Equity at exit: $39,758

10-year hold

IRR: -49.6%
Equity multiple: -0.52×
Total profit: $-113,236
Equity at exit: $23,055

Cash invested: $74,661 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 48 active · 40 under contract
Months of supply: 3.9 mo (25%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $273,490 ($162/sqft)
Median days on market: 312 d
This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -0.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

Home prices YoY: -1.0%
Rents YoY: -3.8%
Active inventory: 1496
Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,919 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,398
Tax est. 1.5%: −$333 /mo · $4,000/yr
Insurance: −$111
HOA: −$31
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
Net cashflow: $-358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,372

Max offer price $214,834

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-174	-5% $-266	+0% $-358	+5% $-450	+10% $-542
Rent	-10% $-510	-5% $-434	+0% $-358	+5% $-282	+10% $-206
Rate	-1.0pp $-224	-0.5pp $-290	base $-358	+0.5pp $-427	+1.0pp $-497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $66,661
Closing costs: $7,999
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21531 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl Waller, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,750	$1.06	38d	1	0.02mi
21707 Cottonwood Meadows Trl Waller, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,749	$1.27	73d	1	0.13mi
21514 Barnridge Ct Waller, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,895	$1.15	54d	1	0.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Builder: Lennar HomesLiving area approximately 1,650
HOA & community: Community managed by First Service ResidentialHOA fee $375 annually

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage2-car garage
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerTankless water heater
Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2025)Faces northSlab foundation
Construction: Brick and stucco constructionComposition roofBuilt in 2025
Exterior features: Sprinkler/irrigation systemSubdivision lot

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorTankless water heater
Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
Flooring: CarpetPlank flooringVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features: Kitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryTub with shower
Laundry & utility: Washer includedDryer includedElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $31/mo · $372/yr

Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $244,900 Active 38 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $244,900 Active 36 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $244,900 Active 35 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $244,900 Active 34 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $244,900 Active 33 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $244,900 Active 30 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $244,900 Active 28 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $244,900 Active 27 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $244,900 Active 25 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $244,900 Active 23 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $244,900 Active 22 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $244,900 Active 21 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $244,900 Active 20 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $244,900 Active 19 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $244,900 Active 17 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $244,900 Active 16 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $244,900 Active 15 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $244,900 Active 14 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $244,900 Active 13 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $244,900 Active 12 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $244,900 Active 11 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $244,900 Active 10 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $244,900 Active 9 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $244,900 Active 8 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $244,900 Active 6 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $244,900 Active 5 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $244,900 Active 4 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $244,900 Active 3 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $244,900 Active 2 DOM
2026-07-02

pricedays on marketlisting id $244,900 Active 1 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $249,000 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $249,000 Active 19 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $249,000 Active 16 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $249,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $249,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $249,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $249,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $249,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $249,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $249,000 Active 3 DOM
2026-06-07

pricedays on marketlisting id $249,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $269,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $269,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $269,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-05-31

days on market $269,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-05-08

listed $269,000 Active 383-char remark
2026-04-23

soldstatus Closed 532-char remark
2026-04-02

status Pending 532-char remark
2026-04-02

price $287,990 532-char remark
2026-03-30

listed $237,990 Active 532-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $23,023
− Mortgage interest: −$14,936
− Property taxes: −$4,000
− Insurance: −$1,333
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
− Management: −$1,842
− HOA: −$372
− Depreciation: −$7,757
Taxable loss: −$9,059

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,174
After-tax cash flow: $-2,123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a good layout. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
Both Adding a smart home system — Improves convenience and can add value ↑
Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can add value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Waller ISD
NCES district ID: 4844430
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $58,911
Composite: 29.12/100
National rank: #6593
State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

Score: 61/100
State rank: #1003
US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 14,348
Household income: $81,250
Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
Current HPI: 397.85
Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

2026-07-01 Listed $244,900 HARMLS
2026-06-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-06-05 Listed $249,000 HARMLS
2026-06-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-05-08 Listed $269,000 HARMLS
2026-04-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
2026-04-02 Pending — HARMLS
2026-04-02 Price Changed $287,990 HARMLS
2026-03-30 Listed $237,990 HARMLS
2026-03-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-03-24 Price Changed $250,690 HARMLS
2026-03-13 Price Changed $259,390 HARMLS
2026-03-03 Price Changed $263,990 HARMLS
2026-02-18 Price Changed $268,990 HARMLS
2026-01-07 Price Changed $278,990 HARMLS
2025-12-08 Listed $287,990 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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