3101 Hilltop Rd · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 124 Days on market

Built 2018 0.51 ac lot $113/sqft · 8% above area Est $185k · 8% over $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sitting on a quiet, corner lot with circular drive, this property boasts the calm of country living yet is just minutes from everything you need in the city. Curl up with a good book on your oversized deck & enjoyed a cup of coffee or wind down in the evening with your favorite glass of wine. It’s an easy environment to slow down, catch your breath & just reflect. This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom layout features a living room, dining room with den area, kitchen & laundry room with built-in hutch. This split bedroom design also features walk-in closets & built-in stainless steel appliances in kitchen with island with farm sink & raised breakfast bar for additional dining seating, dual sinks in primary bathroom plus walk-in shower & free-standing tub. Additional features are an outdoor side deck, fenced yard , huge carport ready for your RV & workshop for all your hobbies! The neighborhood adds some nice perks too, including a boat launch for quick access to Lake Granbury, a community center & pool for cooling off in the summer plus a park & playground for hours of entertainment. Make this your next address & start living your relaxed, best life!

Key facts

• Split bedroom design
• Oversized deck
• Circular drive

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CIRCULAR DRIVE
• OVERSIZED DECK
• SPLIT BEDROOM DESIGN
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• FARM SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $76k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.59%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,891
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 7.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3101 Hilltop Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,768 (0%)	0mo	$199,000	$113	100
4505 Appletree Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (-2%)	0mo	$249,900	$144	87
4813 Peachtree St	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,768 (0%)	2mo	$335,000	$189	81
3211 Evergreen Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,706 (-4%)	7mo	$179,900	$105	71
2806 Hilltop Rd	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,015 (+14%)	13mo	$260,000	$129	56
2606 Hilltop Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-13%)	23mo	$165,000	$107	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-19,516
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,745
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,607/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,711

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4321 Terri Lee Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$2,075	$1.50	1d	1	0.43mi
5418 Lake View Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,300	$1.01	43d	1	1.01mi
5609 Arkansas Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,950	$1.02	1d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 1212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

   Sitting on a quiet, corner lot with circular drive, this property boasts the calm of country living yet is just minutes from everything you need in the city. Curl up with a good book on your oversized deck & enjoyed a cup of coffee or wind down in the evening with your favorite glass of wine. It’s an easy environment to slow down, catch your breath & just reflect. This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom layout features a living room, dining room with den area, kitchen & laundry room with built-in hutch. This split bedroom design also features walk-in closets & built-in stainless steel appliances in kitchen with island with farm sink & raised breakfast bar for additional dining seating, dual sinks in primary bathroom plus walk-in shower & free-standing tub. Additional features are an outdoor side deck, fenced yard , huge carport ready for your RV & workshop for all your hobbies! The neighborhood adds some nice perks too, including a boat launch for quick access to Lake Granbury, a community center & pool for cooling off in the summer plus a park & playground for hours of entertainment. Make this your next address & start living your relaxed, best life!

2. 2026-05-07
   historical Active Option Contract 1212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

   Sitting on a quiet, corner lot with circular drive, this property boasts the calm of country living yet is just minutes from everything you need in the city. Curl up with a good book on your oversized deck & enjoyed a cup of coffee or wind down in the evening with your favorite glass of wine. It’s an easy environment to slow down, catch your breath & just reflect. This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom layout features a living room, dining room with den area, kitchen & laundry room with built-in hutch. This split bedroom design also features walk-in closets & built-in stainless steel appliances in kitchen with island with farm sink & raised breakfast bar for additional dining seating, dual sinks in primary bathroom plus walk-in shower & free-standing tub. Additional features are an outdoor side deck, fenced yard , huge carport ready for your RV & workshop for all your hobbies! The neighborhood adds some nice perks too, including a boat launch for quick access to Lake Granbury, a community center & pool for cooling off in the summer plus a park & playground for hours of entertainment. Make this your next address & start living your relaxed, best life!

3. 2026-04-26
   price $199,000 1212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

   Sitting on a quiet, corner lot with circular drive, this property boasts the calm of country living yet is just minutes from everything you need in the city. Curl up with a good book on your oversized deck & enjoyed a cup of coffee or wind down in the evening with your favorite glass of wine. It’s an easy environment to slow down, catch your breath & just reflect. This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom layout features a living room, dining room with den area, kitchen & laundry room with built-in hutch. This split bedroom design also features walk-in closets & built-in stainless steel appliances in kitchen with island with farm sink & raised breakfast bar for additional dining seating, dual sinks in primary bathroom plus walk-in shower & free-standing tub. Additional features are an outdoor side deck, fenced yard , huge carport ready for your RV & workshop for all your hobbies! The neighborhood adds some nice perks too, including a boat launch for quick access to Lake Granbury, a community center & pool for cooling off in the summer plus a park & playground for hours of entertainment. Make this your next address & start living your relaxed, best life!

4. 2026-04-18
   price $229,900 1212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

   Sitting on a quiet, corner lot with circular drive, this property boasts the calm of country living yet is just minutes from everything you need in the city. Curl up with a good book on your oversized deck & enjoyed a cup of coffee or wind down in the evening with your favorite glass of wine. It’s an easy environment to slow down, catch your breath & just reflect. This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom layout features a living room, dining room with den area, kitchen & laundry room with built-in hutch. This split bedroom design also features walk-in closets & built-in stainless steel appliances in kitchen with island with farm sink & raised breakfast bar for additional dining seating, dual sinks in primary bathroom plus walk-in shower & free-standing tub. Additional features are an outdoor side deck, fenced yard , huge carport ready for your RV & workshop for all your hobbies! The neighborhood adds some nice perks too, including a boat launch for quick access to Lake Granbury, a community center & pool for cooling off in the summer plus a park & playground for hours of entertainment. Make this your next address & start living your relaxed, best life!

5. 2026-01-23
   price $264,900 1212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

   Sitting on a quiet, corner lot with circular drive, this property boasts the calm of country living yet is just minutes from everything you need in the city. Curl up with a good book on your oversized deck & enjoyed a cup of coffee or wind down in the evening with your favorite glass of wine. It’s an easy environment to slow down, catch your breath & just reflect. This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom layout features a living room, dining room with den area, kitchen & laundry room with built-in hutch. This split bedroom design also features walk-in closets & built-in stainless steel appliances in kitchen with island with farm sink & raised breakfast bar for additional dining seating, dual sinks in primary bathroom plus walk-in shower & free-standing tub. Additional features are an outdoor side deck, fenced yard , huge carport ready for your RV & workshop for all your hobbies! The neighborhood adds some nice perks too, including a boat launch for quick access to Lake Granbury, a community center & pool for cooling off in the summer plus a park & playground for hours of entertainment. Make this your next address & start living your relaxed, best life!

6. 2026-01-11
   listed $274,900 Active 1212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

   Sitting on a quiet, corner lot with circular drive, this property boasts the calm of country living yet is just minutes from everything you need in the city. Curl up with a good book on your oversized deck & enjoyed a cup of coffee or wind down in the evening with your favorite glass of wine. It’s an easy environment to slow down, catch your breath & just reflect. This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom layout features a living room, dining room with den area, kitchen & laundry room with built-in hutch. This split bedroom design also features walk-in closets & built-in stainless steel appliances in kitchen with island with farm sink & raised breakfast bar for additional dining seating, dual sinks in primary bathroom plus walk-in shower & free-standing tub. Additional features are an outdoor side deck, fenced yard , huge carport ready for your RV & workshop for all your hobbies! The neighborhood adds some nice perks too, including a boat launch for quick access to Lake Granbury, a community center & pool for cooling off in the summer plus a park & playground for hours of entertainment. Make this your next address & start living your relaxed, best life!

7. 2019-03-19
   soldstatus
8. 2019-03-18
   soldstatus Sold 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (226 chars)

   Close to Lake, Corner Lot, Water, Septic & Electricity Installed, Recreational Use is Allowed, No Time Limit to Build, Newer Mobiles Allowed, 750 Sq Feet Minimum for Permanent Housing, Call with Any Questions 210.422.3013

9. 2019-03-06
   status Pending 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (226 chars)

   Close to Lake, Corner Lot, Water, Septic & Electricity Installed, Recreational Use is Allowed, No Time Limit to Build, Newer Mobiles Allowed, 750 Sq Feet Minimum for Permanent Housing, Call with Any Questions 210.422.3013

10. 2019-02-22
    listed $27,000 Active 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    Close to Lake, Corner Lot, Water, Septic & Electricity Installed, Recreational Use is Allowed, No Time Limit to Build, Newer Mobiles Allowed, 750 Sq Feet Minimum for Permanent Housing, Call with Any Questions 210.422.3013

11. 2018-03-18
    historical
12. 2017-09-20
    listed $32,000 Active
13. 2013-04-22
    historical
14. 2013-02-06
    soldstatus
15. 2013-01-04
    price $38,000
16. 2012-12-10
    listed $40,000 Active
17. 2005-02-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,607 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,034/yr (+$86/mo · 39.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,478
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,607
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$73
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17
• After-tax cash flow: $3,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+397.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $229,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $264,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-11 Listed $274,900 NTREIS
• 2019-03-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-18 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-03-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-02-22 Listed $27,000 NTREIS
• 2018-03-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-09-20 Listed $32,000 NTREIS
• 2013-04-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2013-02-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-01-04 Price Changed $38,000 NTREIS
• 2012-12-10 Listed $40,000 NTREIS
• 2005-02-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,607 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.