4854 Old West Lake Rd · Fairview, PA 16505

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1930 0.29 ac lot $129/sqft · 30% below area Est $199k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment Opportunity In Northwest Millcreek! This 1.5 Story Home Offers 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bathroom, And A 2 Car Garage. Property Presents A Great Opportunity For Buyers Looking To Add Their Personal Touch And Build Equity. With Some Vision And Updates, This Home Has Strong Potential To Shine. Sold As-Is.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.0% in Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#123 in PA, #963 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $134,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,530
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -29.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1621 Garloch Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0	1,002 (-7%)	11mo	$66,000	$66	51
5354 Windward Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,132 (+5%)	8mo	$239,900	$212	51
1135 Candy Ln	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+6%)	11mo	$242,000	$212	50
1547 Garloch Dr	0.58mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,154 (+7%)	14mo	$136,000	$118	45
5430 Edward St	0.63mi	2/1.0	952 (-12%)	9mo	$67,900	$71	43
1112 Western Ln	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,240 (+15%)	2mo	$237,770	$192	39
1717 Garloch Dr	0.58mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+11%)	13mo	$218,000	$182	36
5220 Deepwood Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	938 (-13%)	18mo	$29,000	$31	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-16,197
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-5,818
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16505

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,647/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,275

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $138	+0% $99	+5% $59	+10% $20
Rent	-10% $-12	-5% $43	+0% $99	+5% $154	+10% $209
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $134	base $99	+0.5pp $63	+1.0pp $26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1046 Grace St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	44d	1	0.76mi
4060 Chilton Ct Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	768	$1,400	$1.82	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-14
   listed $139,000 Active 303-char remark

   Show marketing remark (303 chars)

   Investment Opportunity In Northwest Millcreek! This 1.5 Story Home Offers 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bathroom, And A 2 Car Garage. Property Presents A Great Opportunity For Buyers Looking To Add Their Personal Touch And Build Equity. With Some Vision And Updates, This Home Has Strong Potential To Shine. Sold As-Is.

2. 2014-09-09
   listed $99,900
3. 2005-12-30
   soldstatus $97,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,647 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,647 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,647
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$1,060
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$254
• After-tax cash flow: $1,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Fairview

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,631

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.22%
• Current HPI: 240.6976
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+42.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $139,000 GEBOR
• 2014-09-09 Listed $99,900 GEBOR
• 2005-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $97,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,647 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.