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1806 Livadero Ln 🏗️ New Construction
D- Composite 37.14
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +8.5/30.0
  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Condition / age +5.0/5.0
  • Appreciation +4.0/10.0
  • Livability +3.1/5.0
  • 1% rule +2.9/10.0
  • DSCR +2.3/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.3/5.0
  • Schools +1.6/10.0

$314,995

1806 Livadero Ln · Fresno, TX 77545
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,130 sqft · SingleFamily · 161 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

KB HOME NEW CONSTRUCTION – Welcome to 1806 Livadero Lane in the desirable Olympia Falls community, zoned to Fort Bend ISD! This beautifully designed home sits on a lot with NO BACK NEIGHBORS and features 3 bedrooms, a versatile den, 2 full baths, and an attached 2-car garage. The open-concept layout is enhanced by a modern kitchen showcasing stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, a spacious granite island, and 42" Woodmont cabinetry—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The flexible den offers ideal space for a home office, study, or additional living area.

Key facts

  • Modern kitchen
  • No back neighbors
  • Flexible den

Tags

NO BACK NEIGHBORSMODERN KITCHENSTAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCESSPACIOUS GRANITE ISLAND42 WOODMONT CABINETRYFLEXIBLE DEN

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
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🏗️ New construction. The $314,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $326,962.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (9.4% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (18.2% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $258k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
  • Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 263 students, 89% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-35 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 116d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 89% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $257,575 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.79%
Cap rate
5.24%
Cash-on-cash
-3.77%
DSCR
0.83
GRM
10.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$326,962
List price
$314,995
Delta
-3.66%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
1031 Cedar Place Ln 0.47mi 3/2.5 2,107 (-1%) 1mo $334,140 $159 73
4203 Pine Springs Ct 0.52mi 3/2.5 2,107 (-1%) 2mo $349,090 $166 70
2827 Dry Creek Dr 0.66mi 3/2.0 2,054 (-4%) 2mo $315,000 $153 62
1038 Cedar Place Ln 0.49mi 4/2.5 (+1) 1,989 (-7%) 1mo $315,590 $159 59
4123 Chester Bay Ln 0.68mi 4/2.0 (+1) 2,102 (-1%) 4mo $394,900 $188 58
4207 Pine Springs Ct 0.51mi 4/2.5 (+1) 1,989 (-7%) 3mo $344,190 $173 56
3202 Thebes Ct 0.73mi 4/2.5 (+1) 2,149 (+1%) 2mo $315,000 $147 55
4035 Chester Bay Ln 0.73mi 4/2.0 (+1) 2,232 (+5%) 0mo $314,000 $141 53
4215 Pine Springs Ct 0.50mi 3/2.5 1,853 (-13%) 2mo $319,540 $172 52
2231 Gold Beach Dr 0.72mi 4/2.0 (+1) 2,016 (-5%) 3mo $350,000 $174 50
1114 Cedar Place Ln 0.54mi 3/2.5 1,853 (-13%) 3mo $323,590 $175 48
2814 Goodman Ridge Dr 0.70mi 3/2.0 1,844 (-13%) 3mo $315,000 $171 42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-18.7%
Equity multiple
0.29×
Total profit
$-64,639
Equity at exit
$63,792
10-year hold
IRR
-16.4%
Equity multiple
-0.05×
Total profit
$-96,118
Equity at exit
$54,795

Cash invested: $91,549 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
51 active · 39 under contract
Months of supply
6.2 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$323,290 ($160/sqft)
Median days on market
66 d
This list price
43% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-4.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77545

Home prices YoY
-0.8%
Rents YoY
-0.9%
Active inventory
268
Price-to-rent
10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,576 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,715
Tax est. 1.5%
$409 /mo · $4,904/yr
Insurance
$136
HOA
$63
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$541
Net cashflow
$-288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,940
Max offer price $285,329
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-62 -5% $-175 +0% $-288 +5% $-401 +10% $-514
Rent -10% $-491 -5% $-389 +0% $-288 +5% $-186 +10% $-84
Rate -1.0pp $-123 -0.5pp $-205 base $-288 +0.5pp $-372 +1.0pp $-459

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$81,740
Closing costs
$9,809
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 19 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
3212 Aldridge Dr Missouri City, TX 4.0 2.5 2489 $2,650 $1.06 116d 1 0.58mi
2235 Argos Dr Missouri City, TX 4.0 3.5 2838 $2,550 $0.90 116d 1 0.58mi
2707 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX 3.0 2.5 2082 $2,245 $1.08 97d 1 0.62mi
2709 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX 3.0 2.5 2082 $2,245 $1.08 116d 1 0.62mi
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX 3.0 2.0 2109 $2,271 $1.08 101d 1 0.69mi
3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX 4.0 3.0 2278 $2,395 $1.05 115d 1 0.70mi
1407 Wheatland Terrance Ln Missouri City, TX 3.0 2.0 1836 $2,400 $1.31 45d 1 0.75mi
1109 Lakes Edge Ln Missouri City, TX 4.0 3.0 2847 $2,800 $0.98 116d 1 0.86mi
3314 Dry Creek Dr Missouri City, TX 4.0 3.0 2600 $4,200 $1.62 139d 1 1.06mi
3211 Breckinridge Ct Missouri City, TX 4.0 2.5 2920 $2,550 $0.87 37d 1 1.25mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX 3.0 2.0 1448 $1,695 $1.17 116d 1 1.33mi
3947 Amalfi Shores Ct Missouri City, TX 4.0 2.5 2409 $3,500 $1.45 139d 1 1.33mi
1906 Crescent Oak Dr Missouri City, TX 3.0 2.5 2401 $2,245 $0.94 0d 1 1.33mi
3935 Medici Ct Missouri City, TX 4.0 3.0 2636 $2,800 $1.06 116d 1 1.34mi
1514 Westland Ct Missouri City, TX 4.0 3.0 2645 $2,800 $1.06 45d 1 1.35mi
2119 Hawthorne Brook Ln Fresno, TX 3.0 2.0 1584 $1,895 $1.20 48d 1 1.40mi
4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX 4.0 2.5 2364 $2,495 $1.06 117d 1 1.48mi
2026 Acorn Glen Trl Fresno, TX 4.0 2.5 2294 $2,280 $0.99 29d 1 1.49mi
8403 Quail Burg Ln Missouri City, TX 3.0 2.0 1550 $1,740 $1.12 49d 1 1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Community association: Vision Communities ManagementAnnual association fee of $750Community features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage
Security
Smoke detector(s)
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
Construction
Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roof
Exterior features
DeckPatioPrivate yardBack yard fencingProperty backs to greenbelt/parkConcrete road surface

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherFree-standing rangeGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveDisposal
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom (First floor) — 16x18Bedroom (First floor) — 12x11Bedroom (First floor) — 12x11Den (First floor) — 10x14
Flooring
CarpetPlankTileVinyl
Bathrooms
2 full bathroomsDouble vanity in primary bath
Heating & cooling
Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features
Double vanityGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryTub with showerWindow treatmentsKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsWindow coveringsENERGY STAR qualified appliancesTankless water heater
Laundry & utility
Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $63/mo · $756/yr

Likely covers
pool

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $314,995 Active 161 DOM
  2. 2026-09-23
    days on market $314,995 Active 160 DOM
  3. 2026-09-22
    days on market $314,995 Active 159 DOM
  4. 2026-09-21
    days on market $314,995 Active 158 DOM
  5. 2026-09-20
    days on market $314,995 Active 157 DOM
  6. 2026-09-19
    days on market $314,995 Active 156 DOM
  7. 2026-09-18
    days on market $314,995 Active 155 DOM
  8. 2026-09-17
    days on market $314,995 Active 154 DOM
  9. 2026-09-16
    days on market $314,995 Active 153 DOM
  10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $314,995 Active 152 DOM
  11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $314,995 Active 151 DOM
  12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $314,995 Active 150 DOM
  13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $314,995 Active 149 DOM
  14. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $314,995 Active 148 DOM
  15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $319,995 Active 142 DOM
  16. 2026-09-04
    pricedays on market $319,995 Active 141 DOM
  17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $324,995 Active 137 DOM
  18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $324,995 Active 136 DOM
  19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $324,995 Active 135 DOM
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $324,995 Active 134 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    pricedays on market $324,995 Active 133 DOM
  22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $329,995 Active 131 DOM
  23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $329,995 Active 130 DOM
  24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $329,995 Active 129 DOM
  25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $329,995 Active 128 DOM
  26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $329,995 Active 127 DOM
  27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $329,995 Active 126 DOM
  28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $329,995 Active 125 DOM
  29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $329,995 Active 124 DOM
  30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $329,995 Active 123 DOM
  31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $329,995 Active 122 DOM
  32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $329,995 Active 121 DOM
  33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $329,995 Active 120 DOM
  34. 2026-08-13
    pricedays on market $329,995 Active 119 DOM
  35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $339,995 Active 118 DOM
  36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $339,995 Active 117 DOM
  37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $339,995 Active 116 DOM
  38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $339,995 Active 115 DOM
  39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $339,995 Active 114 DOM
  40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $339,995 Active 112 DOM
  41. 2026-08-05
    price $339,995 Active 111 DOM
  42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $343,676 Active 111 DOM
  43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $343,676 Active 110 DOM
  44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $343,676 Active 109 DOM
  45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $343,676 Active 106 DOM
  46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $343,676 Active 104 DOM
  47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $343,676 Active 103 DOM
  48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $343,676 Active 101 DOM
  49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $343,676 Active 99 DOM
  50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $343,676 Active 98 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$30,909
− Mortgage interest
−$18,315
− Property taxes
−$4,904
− Insurance
−$1,635
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,473
− Management
−$2,473
− HOA
−$756
− Depreciation
−$9,512
Taxable loss
−$9,158
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,198
After-tax cash flow
$-1,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home in the desirable Olympia Falls community is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The modern kitchen, spacious layout, and well-maintained landscaping make it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhance curb appeal and add value for both resale and rental.
  • Rental Playground maintenance — Maintain the playground for a family-friendly rental appeal.
F Composite school gradezoned avg 16/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blue Ridge El F TX #4,180/4,322 Nat'l #37,719/41,679 Middle Christa Mcauliffe Middle F TX #1,583/1,662 Nat'l #12,767/14,009 High Willowridge H S F TX #1,389/1,632 Nat'l #13,991/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID
4819650
Math proficiency
44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency
53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$82,360
Composite
44.61/100
National rank
#2779
State rank
#140 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fresno

Score
62/100
State rank
#943
US rank
#16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Fresno, TX
County
Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
City population
26,236
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
26,236
Household income
$94,474
Rent vs Own
20.7% rent · 79.3% own
Severe rent burden
2% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,004,526 people
By 2030
1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040
1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050
1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075
2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100
2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
Race & ethnicity
Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 29%
Common ancestry
Portuguese 1%
Foreign-born
18% · Canada
Languages at home
67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing
+4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles
2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+2.4% since first listed
6 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-10 Price Changed $348,377 HARMLS
  • 2026-06-04 Price Changed $346,377 HARMLS
  • 2026-05-20 Price Changed $346,057 HARMLS
  • 2026-05-14 Price Changed $344,057 HARMLS
  • 2026-04-29 Price Changed $342,057 HARMLS
  • 2026-04-16 Listed $340,057 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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