🏗️ New Construction
1806 Livadero Ln · Fresno, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 110°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +8.5/30.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Condition / age +5.0/5.0
- Appreciation +4.0/10.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- 1% rule +2.9/10.0
- DSCR +2.3/10.0
- Rent growth +2.3/5.0
- Schools +1.6/10.0
$314,995
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
KB HOME NEW CONSTRUCTION – Welcome to 1806 Livadero Lane in the desirable Olympia Falls community, zoned to Fort Bend ISD! This beautifully designed home sits on a lot with NO BACK NEIGHBORS and features 3 bedrooms, a versatile den, 2 full baths, and an attached 2-car garage. The open-concept layout is enhanced by a modern kitchen showcasing stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, a spacious granite island, and 42" Woodmont cabinetry—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The flexible den offers ideal space for a home office, study, or additional living area.
Key facts
- Modern kitchen
- No back neighbors
- Flexible den
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (9.4% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (18.2% below list).
- Recommended offer: $258k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
- Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 263 students, 89% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-35 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 116d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 89% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.79% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.24%
- Cash-on-cash
- -3.77%
- DSCR
- 0.83
- GRM
- 10.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $326,962
- List price
- $314,995
- Delta
- -3.66%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1031 Cedar Place Ln | 0.47mi | 3/2.5 | 2,107 (-1%) | 1mo | $334,140 | $159 | 73 |
| 4203 Pine Springs Ct | 0.52mi | 3/2.5 | 2,107 (-1%) | 2mo | $349,090 | $166 | 70 |
| 2827 Dry Creek Dr | 0.66mi | 3/2.0 | 2,054 (-4%) | 2mo | $315,000 | $153 | 62 |
| 1038 Cedar Place Ln | 0.49mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,989 (-7%) | 1mo | $315,590 | $159 | 59 |
| 4123 Chester Bay Ln | 0.68mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 2,102 (-1%) | 4mo | $394,900 | $188 | 58 |
| 4207 Pine Springs Ct | 0.51mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,989 (-7%) | 3mo | $344,190 | $173 | 56 |
| 3202 Thebes Ct | 0.73mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 2,149 (+1%) | 2mo | $315,000 | $147 | 55 |
| 4035 Chester Bay Ln | 0.73mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 2,232 (+5%) | 0mo | $314,000 | $141 | 53 |
| 4215 Pine Springs Ct | 0.50mi | 3/2.5 | 1,853 (-13%) | 2mo | $319,540 | $172 | 52 |
| 2231 Gold Beach Dr | 0.72mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 2,016 (-5%) | 3mo | $350,000 | $174 | 50 |
| 1114 Cedar Place Ln | 0.54mi | 3/2.5 | 1,853 (-13%) | 3mo | $323,590 | $175 | 48 |
| 2814 Goodman Ridge Dr | 0.70mi | 3/2.0 | 1,844 (-13%) | 3mo | $315,000 | $171 | 42 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -18.7%
- Equity multiple
- 0.29×
- Total profit
- $-64,639
- Equity at exit
- $63,792
- IRR
- -16.4%
- Equity multiple
- -0.05×
- Total profit
- $-96,118
- Equity at exit
- $54,795
Cash invested: $91,549 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 51 active · 39 under contract
- Months of supply
- 6.2 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $323,290 ($160/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 66 d
- This list price
- 43% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -4.0% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 77545
- Home prices YoY
- -0.8%
- Rents YoY
- -0.9%
- Active inventory
- 268
- Price-to-rent
- 10.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,576 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,715
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$409 /mo · $4,904/yr
- Insurance
- −$136
- HOA
- −$63
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$541
- Net cashflow
- $-288
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-62 | -5% $-175 | +0% $-288 | +5% $-401 | +10% $-514 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-491 | -5% $-389 | +0% $-288 | +5% $-186 | +10% $-84 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-123 | -0.5pp $-205 | base $-288 | +0.5pp $-372 | +1.0pp $-459 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $81,740
- Closing costs
- $9,809
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 19 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3212 Aldridge Dr Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2489 | $2,650 | $1.06 | 116d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 2235 Argos Dr Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2838 | $2,550 | $0.90 | 116d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 2707 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2082 | $2,245 | $1.08 | 97d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 2709 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2082 | $2,245 | $1.08 | 116d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2109 | $2,271 | $1.08 | 101d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2278 | $2,395 | $1.05 | 115d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 1407 Wheatland Terrance Ln Missouri City, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1836 | $2,400 | $1.31 | 45d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 1109 Lakes Edge Ln Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2847 | $2,800 | $0.98 | 116d | 1 | 0.86mi |
| 3314 Dry Creek Dr Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2600 | $4,200 | $1.62 | 139d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 3211 Breckinridge Ct Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2920 | $2,550 | $0.87 | 37d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1448 | $1,695 | $1.17 | 116d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 3947 Amalfi Shores Ct Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2409 | $3,500 | $1.45 | 139d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 1906 Crescent Oak Dr Missouri City, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2401 | $2,245 | $0.94 | 0d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 3935 Medici Ct Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2636 | $2,800 | $1.06 | 116d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 1514 Westland Ct Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2645 | $2,800 | $1.06 | 45d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 2119 Hawthorne Brook Ln Fresno, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1584 | $1,895 | $1.20 | 48d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2364 | $2,495 | $1.06 | 117d | 1 | 1.48mi |
| 2026 Acorn Glen Trl Fresno, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2294 | $2,280 | $0.99 | 29d | 1 | 1.49mi |
| 8403 Quail Burg Ln Missouri City, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1550 | $1,740 | $1.12 | 49d | 1 | 1.49mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Community association: Vision Communities ManagementAnnual association fee of $750Community features include curbs and gutters
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached 2-car garage
- Security
- Smoke detector(s)
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewer
- Home design
- Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
- Construction
- Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roof
- Exterior features
- DeckPatioPrivate yardBack yard fencingProperty backs to greenbelt/parkConcrete road surface
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherFree-standing rangeGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveDisposal
- Bedrooms
- Primary bedroom (First floor) — 16x18Bedroom (First floor) — 12x11Bedroom (First floor) — 12x11Den (First floor) — 10x14
- Flooring
- CarpetPlankTileVinyl
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathroomsDouble vanity in primary bath
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
- Interior features
- Double vanityGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryTub with showerWindow treatmentsKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsWindow coveringsENERGY STAR qualified appliancesTankless water heater
- Laundry & utility
- Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup
HOA detail $63/mo · $756/yr
- Likely covers
- pool
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-24days on market $314,995 Active 161 DOM
-
2026-09-23days on market $314,995 Active 160 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $314,995 Active 159 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $314,995 Active 158 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $314,995 Active 157 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $314,995 Active 156 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $314,995 Active 155 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $314,995 Active 154 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $314,995 Active 153 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $314,995 Active 152 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $314,995 Active 151 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $314,995 Active 150 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $314,995 Active 149 DOM
-
2026-09-11pricedays on market $314,995 Active 148 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $319,995 Active 142 DOM
-
2026-09-04pricedays on market $319,995 Active 141 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $324,995 Active 137 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $324,995 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $324,995 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $324,995 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-08-27pricedays on market $324,995 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $329,995 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $329,995 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $329,995 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $329,995 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $329,995 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $329,995 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $329,995 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $329,995 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $329,995 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $329,995 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $329,995 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $329,995 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-08-13pricedays on market $329,995 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $339,995 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $339,995 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $339,995 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $339,995 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $339,995 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $339,995 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-08-05price $339,995 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $343,676 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $343,676 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $343,676 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $343,676 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $343,676 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $343,676 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $343,676 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $343,676 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $343,676 Active 98 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $30,909
- − Mortgage interest
- −$18,315
- − Property taxes
- −$4,904
- − Insurance
- −$1,635
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,473
- − Management
- −$2,473
- − HOA
- −$756
- − Depreciation
- −$9,512
- Taxable loss
- −$9,158
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,198
- After-tax cash flow
- $-1,255/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos
This move-in-ready home in the desirable Olympia Falls community is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The modern kitchen, spacious layout, and well-maintained landscaping make it an attractive option for both resale and rental.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhance curb appeal and add value for both resale and rental. ↑
- Rental Playground maintenance — Maintain the playground for a family-friendly rental appeal. ↑
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Fort Bend ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4819650
- Math proficiency
- 44% ▼ -15.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 53% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $82,360
- Composite
- 44.61/100
- National rank
- #2779
- State rank
- #140 of 826 in TX
Livability — Fresno
- Score
- 62/100
- State rank
- #943
- US rank
- #16815
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Fresno, TX
- County
- Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
- City population
- 26,236
- Metro
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 26,236
- Household income
- $94,474
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 2% of renters
Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,004,526 people
- By 2030
- 1,153,104 · +14.8%
- By 2040
- 1,453,718 · +44.7%
- By 2050
- 1,753,781 · +74.6%
- By 2075
- 2,455,772 · +144.5%
- By 2100
- 2,930,528 · +191.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 29%
- Common ancestry
- Portuguese 1%
- Foreign-born
- 18% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -1.98%
- Current HPI
- 231.3921
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -0.95%
- Metro
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
||
| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
||
| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
|
||
Price history
+2.4% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-10 Price Changed $348,377 HARMLS
- 2026-06-04 Price Changed $346,377 HARMLS
- 2026-05-20 Price Changed $346,057 HARMLS
- 2026-05-14 Price Changed $344,057 HARMLS
- 2026-04-29 Price Changed $342,057 HARMLS
- 2026-04-16 Listed $340,057 HARMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…