616 Breckenridge Hwy · Ranger, TX 76470

$160,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1940 1.03 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 BED 2 BATH Home in Ranger, Texas. This home sits on 1.033 acres. The home has been recently re-sided and there's new windows throughout. Outside, there's a covered porch, large fenced in yard with a privacy fence and established fruit trees. From the backyard, a gate leads out to the rest of the acreage.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Privacy fence
• Gate leads out

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• LARGE FENCED IN YARD
• PRIVACY FENCE
• ESTABLISHED FRUIT TREES
• GATE LEADS OUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (25.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#378 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ranger ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,056 of 1,141 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Eastland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-61 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Eastland County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $111,777 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.14%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-19,534
• Equity at exit: $46,156

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-15,042
• Equity at exit: $55,241

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76470

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,477/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,408

Max offer price $119,534

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $160,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $168,000 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,000 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-02-17
    listed $168,000 Active 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    4 BED 2 BATH Home in Ranger, Texas. This home sits on 1.033 acres. The home has been recently re-sided and there's new windows throughout. Outside, there's a covered porch, large fenced in yard with a privacy fence and established fruit trees. From the backyard, a gate leads out to the rest of the acreage.

17. 2025-10-28
    historical
18. 2025-10-16
    price $135,000
19. 2025-08-18
    price $145,000
20. 2025-07-30
    listed $149,500 Active
21. 2025-04-28
    price $155,000
22. 2025-02-06
    listed $160,000 Active
23. 2025-01-25
    historical
24. 2024-07-31
    listed $160,000 Active
25. 2019-05-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,477 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$451/yr (+$38/mo · 18.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,477
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,073
• − Management: −$1,073
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$5,627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,350
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ranger ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836480
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $32,023
• Composite: 25.73/100
• National rank: #12804
• State rank: #1056 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Ranger

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #378
• US rank: #7977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ranger, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,161

Population outlook (Eastland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,433 people
• By 2030: 16,908 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 15,855 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 14,906 · -14.5%
• By 2075: 12,843 · -26.3%
• By 2100: 10,344 · -40.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 15% Iranian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Eastland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.5) · D 11.0% · R 88.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -59.8pp · 2024: -77.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.5 2020: R+75.4 2016: R+75.4 2012: R+68.9 2008: R+59.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ -0.04%
• Current HPI: 124.079
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $168,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-30 Listed $149,500 NTREIS
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-06 Listed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-25 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-07-31 Listed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2019-05-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+45.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,477 · -21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.