673 Meadowlake Rd · Meadow Lake, NM 87031

$102,100

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · Other · 16 Days on market

Built 1996 0.59 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in this three-bedroom, two bath manufactured home with an attached 2 car garage that is situated on over a half acre. . Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

Key facts

• 0.59 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $102k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $956 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $102k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#306 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Los Lunas Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #34 of 95 in NM (top 36%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.2%/yr); 562 active listings in the ZIP; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $706 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,568 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.11%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $55,182
• Equity at exit: $15,223

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.15×
• Total profit: $175,858
• Equity at exit: $8,828

Cash invested: $28,588 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87031

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 33.2%
• Active inventory: 562
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,054 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$535
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,068/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $956

Break-even live

Break-even rent $844

Max offer price $102,100

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,013	-5% $985	+0% $956	+5% $927	+10% $898
Rent	-10% $793	-5% $875	+0% $956	+5% $1,037	+10% $1,118
Rate	-1.0pp $1,007	-0.5pp $982	base $956	+0.5pp $929	+1.0pp $902

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,525
• Closing costs: $3,063
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $116,600 Active 341-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,068 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,068 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,719
• − Property taxes: −$1,068
• − Insurance: −$510
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,972
• − Management: −$1,972
• − Depreciation: −$2,970
• Taxable income: $10,436
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,505
• After-tax cash flow: $8,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Lunas Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501680
• Math proficiency: 20% —
• Reading proficiency: 34% —
• Median HH income: $44,438
• Composite: 26.11/100
• National rank: #12724
• State rank: #34 of 95 in NM

Livability — Meadow Lake

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #306
• US rank: #26141

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadow Lake, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 47,514
• Household income: $60,902
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 30% Two or more races 29% Native American 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.17%
• Current HPI: 201.0508
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.16%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $102,100 NMMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,068 · +27.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.