2120 Crown Land Ln · Cutchogue, NY 11935

$1,600,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,922 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 1999 0.96 ac lot $408/sqft · 12% below area Est $1817k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Cash flow +2.5/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Here’s what I love about 2120 Crown Land Lane in Cutchogue. The first thing that stood out to me was the setting. Across the street, you have this beautiful stretch of woods that will not be built on, and it gives the front porch such a calm, private feeling. Sitting there in the evening, catching the sunset over that side of the neighborhood, you immediately understand why this house feels different. The approach is also beautifully done. The driveway is finished with Belgian block edging, the walkways to the front and back of the home have landscape lighting, and the evergreens along the property create this polished, private view of the house and backyard. It feels manicured, but n

Key facts

• 0.96 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Security: Security system; Video cameras
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Full attic
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: In-ground salt water pool; Fire pit; Gas grill; Outdoor lighting; Outdoor speakers; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Wine refrigerator; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Two levels (total rooms: 9)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating; Central air conditioning; One fireplace
• Interior features: Chef's kitchen; Crown molding; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Whole-house sound/entertainment system with speakers
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Generator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.60M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-67k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $619k (61.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $571k (64.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $571k (64.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 7.3% in Cutchogue — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#843 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $171k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $160k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$275k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $1.60M implies a 504% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $571,137 (64.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.36% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.88%
• DSCR: 0.34
• GRM: 23.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,817,091
• List price: $1,600,000
• Delta: -11.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1070 Depot Ln	0.47mi	4/2.5	3,977 (+1%)	5mo	$1,449,000	$364	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $517,084
• Equity at exit: $1,441,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.02×
• Total profit: $1,799,911
• Equity at exit: $3,108,448

Cash invested: $448,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11935

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 23.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,711 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,391
• Tax from tax record: −$1,010 /mo · $12,116/yr
• Insurance: −$667
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,199
• Net cashflow: $-5,555

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,743

Max offer price $618,700

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4,649	-5% $-5,102	+0% $-5,555	+5% $-6,008	+10% $-6,461
Rent	-10% $-6,006	-5% $-5,781	+0% $-5,555	+5% $-5,329	+10% $-5,104
Rate	-1.0pp $-4,749	-0.5pp $-5,148	base $-5,555	+0.5pp $-5,970	+1.0pp $-6,391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $400,000
• Closing costs: $48,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 2342-char remark
2. 2026-05-15
   status Active 2342-char remark
3. 2026-04-30
   listed $1,600,000 Active 2342-char remark
4. 2026-04-29
   historical $1,600,000 2342-char remark
5. 1999-03-12
   soldstatus $265,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,116 · $1,010/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,578 · $1,631/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,462/yr (+$622/mo · 61.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,536
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,625
• − Property taxes: −$12,116
• − Insurance: −$8,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,483
• − Management: −$5,483
• − Depreciation: −$46,545
• Taxable loss: −$98,716
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$23,692
• After-tax cash flow: $-42,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cutchogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #16353

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cutchogue, NY
• City population: 2,946
• Population (ZIP): 2,946

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.82%
• Current HPI: 467.3019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+503.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $1,600,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon $1,600,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,116 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.