10615 Crockett Meadows Blvd · Deerwood, TX 77306

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Land · 149 Days on market

Built 2026 5,000 sqft lot $185/sqft · at area comps Est $217k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Wren showcases modern style and versatile design, coming together for a plan that complements every lifestyle. This three-bedroom home is centered around a spacious great room, overlooking a dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a walk-in pantry and a wraparound countertop. An impressive primary suite sits nearby, featuring a walk-in closet and a private bath with a walk-in shower. Two roomy secondary bedrooms are adjacent, bookending a full bath.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Dining area
• Great room

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• WRAPAROUND COUNTERTOP
• PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($931/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $181,102 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.48%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,144
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: 3.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-31,596
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-21,539
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,811 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $660/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,713

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $205	-5% $141	+0% $78	+5% $14	+10% $-50
Rent	-10% $-65	-5% $6	+0% $78	+5% $149	+10% $221
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $135	base $78	+0.5pp $19	+1.0pp $-40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10050 Cerritos Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,499	$1.07	26d	1	0.66mi
15581 Briar Forest Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,545	$1.10	0d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $224,900 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,900 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $224,900 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,900 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $199,900 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    The Wren showcases modern style and versatile design, coming together for a plan that complements every lifestyle. This three-bedroom home is centered around a spacious great room, overlooking a dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a walk-in pantry and a wraparound countertop. An impressive primary suite sits nearby, featuring a walk-in closet and a private bath with a walk-in shower. Two roomy secondary bedrooms are adjacent, bookending a full bath.

17. 2026-05-06
    price $224,900 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    The Wren showcases modern style and versatile design, coming together for a plan that complements every lifestyle. This three-bedroom home is centered around a spacious great room, overlooking a dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a walk-in pantry and a wraparound countertop. An impressive primary suite sits nearby, featuring a walk-in closet and a private bath with a walk-in shower. Two roomy secondary bedrooms are adjacent, bookending a full bath.

18. 2026-05-06
    price $199,900 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    The Wren showcases modern style and versatile design, coming together for a plan that complements every lifestyle. This three-bedroom home is centered around a spacious great room, overlooking a dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a walk-in pantry and a wraparound countertop. An impressive primary suite sits nearby, featuring a walk-in closet and a private bath with a walk-in shower. Two roomy secondary bedrooms are adjacent, bookending a full bath.

19. 2026-04-02
    price $224,900 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    The Wren showcases modern style and versatile design, coming together for a plan that complements every lifestyle. This three-bedroom home is centered around a spacious great room, overlooking a dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a walk-in pantry and a wraparound countertop. An impressive primary suite sits nearby, featuring a walk-in closet and a private bath with a walk-in shower. Two roomy secondary bedrooms are adjacent, bookending a full bath.

20. 2026-04-01
    price $224,900 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    The Wren showcases modern style and versatile design, coming together for a plan that complements every lifestyle. This three-bedroom home is centered around a spacious great room, overlooking a dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a walk-in pantry and a wraparound countertop. An impressive primary suite sits nearby, featuring a walk-in closet and a private bath with a walk-in shower. Two roomy secondary bedrooms are adjacent, bookending a full bath.

21. 2026-01-23
    listed $227,900 Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    The Wren showcases modern style and versatile design, coming together for a plan that complements every lifestyle. This three-bedroom home is centered around a spacious great room, overlooking a dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a walk-in pantry and a wraparound countertop. An impressive primary suite sits nearby, featuring a walk-in closet and a private bath with a walk-in shower. Two roomy secondary bedrooms are adjacent, bookending a full bath.

22. 2026-01-16
    listed $227,900 Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    The Wren showcases modern style and versatile design, coming together for a plan that complements every lifestyle. This three-bedroom home is centered around a spacious great room, overlooking a dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a walk-in pantry and a wraparound countertop. An impressive primary suite sits nearby, featuring a walk-in closet and a private bath with a walk-in shower. Two roomy secondary bedrooms are adjacent, bookending a full bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $660 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,116 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,456/yr (+$288/mo · 523.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$660
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,739
• − Management: −$1,739
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$2,970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$713
• After-tax cash flow: $1,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $199,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $224,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $199,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $224,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $224,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $227,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $227,900 Zillow