22091 Bowden Dr · Woodbranch, TX 77357

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2007 0.33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 1/3 Acre with move in ready 2 bath / 2 Bedroom Mobile Home. Mobile Home was purchased new in 2007 and is at original location. Gorgeous mature trees, with (1) large pecan. Two out buildings, one has electricity and lights. Property has public water, sewer, electric, and gas.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 2007
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (first-floor living areas)
• Construction: Built in 2007; Aluminum siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared and wooded lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (approx. 7.75 x 14); Breakfast nook on the first floor (approx. 7.75 x 8)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12.5 x 12); Additional bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.4% in Woodbranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney El (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 642 students, 89% FRL); Keefer Crossing Middle (math 35% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 1,213 students, 81% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $179k implies a 459% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $174,366 (2.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.96%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-20,581
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-19,462
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,744 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,883/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,481

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22048 Newton Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$1,650	$1.79	24d	1	0.12mi
18242 Via Aurelia Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1117	$1,750	$1.57	5d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $179,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,883 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,393/yr (+$116/mo · 73.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,883
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$436
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$105
• After-tax cash flow: $2,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodbranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+459.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2019-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-07-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-07-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-07-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-07-05 Listed $85,900 HARMLS
• 2006-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,883 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.