468 Paris St · San Marcos, TX 78656

$221,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · Land · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 4,878 sqft lot $141/sqft · at area comps Est $212k · at est. $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 4,878 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Cotton Gateway HOA; HOA fee $45 monthly; includes common area maintenance; Community amenities include park and pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces northeast; New construction (builder-provided year); Built by Lennar
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Porch; Privacy fencing; Back yard; Front yard; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Open floor plan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $222k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($177/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $201,760 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,490
• List price: $221,999
• Delta: 4.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.02% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-21,880
• Equity at exit: $53,325

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-22,633
• Equity at exit: $55,771

Cash invested: $62,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78656

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,018 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,164
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$277 /mo · $3,330/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,999

Max offer price $221,999

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,500
• Closing costs: $6,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
531 Paris St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,950	$1.17	1d	1	0.12mi
205 E Lima Dr Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,999	$1.25	24d	1	0.20mi
351 Cobb Branch Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1616	$1,912	$1.18	1d	4	0.75mi
275 Aplite Pass Maxwell, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1733	$2,420	$1.40	1d	1	0.78mi
283 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,609	$1.12	16d	1	0.94mi
312 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	43d	1	0.96mi
253 Fairlawn Way Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1919	$2,235	$1.16	24d	1	0.96mi
171 Haywood Mnr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,850	$1.21	4d	1	0.99mi
328 Mica Trl Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,595	$0.98	43d	1	1.04mi
566 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1837	$1,850	$1.01	16d	1	1.05mi
300 Geode Gln Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1712	$1,795	$1.05	43d	1	1.06mi
124 Hidden Branch Cv Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,845	$1.09	4d	1	1.07mi
192 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1610	$1,699	$1.06	43d	1	1.08mi
543 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,695	$1.04	22d	1	1.08mi
230 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	17d	1	1.09mi
147 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,441	$0.99	43d	1	1.10mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	17d	1	1.10mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	4d	1	1.10mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	24d	1	1.10mi
146 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,850	$1.09	12d	1	1.12mi
146 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,850	$1.09	43d	1	1.12mi
170 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	3.0	2122	$1,795	$0.85	4d	1	1.13mi
170 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	2122	$1,795	$0.85	17d	1	1.13mi
342 Jade St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	2072	$1,975	$0.95	43d	1	1.16mi
427 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,550	$1.11	43d	1	1.17mi
444 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1830	$1,850	$1.01	4d	1	1.18mi
251 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$1,650	$1.06	17d	1	1.19mi
151 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,895	$1.06	4d	1	1.22mi
274 Jade St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$1,795	$1.22	43d	1	1.22mi
293 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,825	$1.07	4d	1	1.23mi
195 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,900	$1.07	4d	1	1.24mi
211 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,840	$1.03	17d	1	1.24mi
170 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	1.26mi
296 Agate Cliff Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,695	$1.19	11d	1	1.27mi
839 Gully St Maxwell, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1105	$1,832	$1.66	2d	306	1.34mi
1413 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	4.0	3.0	1952	$2,500	$1.28	43d	1	1.43mi
704 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1904	$1,759	$0.92	2d	15	1.44mi
214 Kyanite Dr Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,650	$1.07	43d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $221,999 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $221,999 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,999 Active 35 DOM

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,999 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,999 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,999 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,999 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $224,999 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $223,999 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $223,999 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $223,999 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $223,999 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $223,999 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    price $219,999 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

15. 2026-05-14
    listed $239,999 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

16. 2026-05-12
    listed $239,999 Active 587-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,435
• − Property taxes: −$3,330
• − Insurance: −$1,110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,937
• − Management: −$1,937
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$6,458
• Taxable loss: −$3,536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$849
• After-tax cash flow: $1,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,847
• Household income: $81,346
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 89.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 21% White 20% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Current HPI: 228.3622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $221,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $221,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $224,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $224,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $223,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $223,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $220,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $220,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $219,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $219,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Listed $239,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Listed $239,999 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $216 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.