3668 Spire Dr · Davenport, FL 33837

$249,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,422 sqft · Townhouse · 36 Days on market

Built 2026

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

You enter through the front covered porch into the foyer, where stairs to the second floor are immediately in view. Just off the foyer are a one-car garage and a convenient powder bath. From there, you step into the open kitchen, dining area, and family room, with access to the back patio located off the dining space. Upstairs, the primary bedroom features a primary bath and a walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms share a full bath, and a laundry room with a linen closet adds everyday convenience to the second floor.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Primary bath
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• OPEN KITCHEN
• BACK PATIO
• PRIMARY BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1422; Address: 3668 Spire Dr, Davenport FL 33837; Listing status: Active; List price: 279990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Electric power; Central air (cooling)
• Home design: Spec new-construction plan named Cosmos

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-491/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#423 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1382 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $213,504 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-49,342
• Equity at exit: $37,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-70,373
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 1382
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,135 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $244,065

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3628 Spire Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1421	$1,950	$1.37	3d	1	0.03mi
3057 Temples Crossing Blvd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,050	$1.39	23d	1	0.10mi
241 Gina Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,250	$1.32	23d	1	0.20mi
754 Chinoy Rd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	23d	1	0.32mi
110 Forest Ave Unit 2 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,295	$1.04	3d	1	0.65mi
2624 Penguin Blvd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1574	$2,050	$1.30	23d	1	0.80mi
2612 Penguin Blvd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1407	$1,900	$1.35	23d	1	0.80mi
3057 Canary Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1515	$1,850	$1.22	14d	1	0.87mi
3037 Canary Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,900	$1.38	19d	1	0.88mi
3010 Canary Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,050	$1.30	23d	1	0.91mi
2966 Canary Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$1,850	$1.18	14d	1	0.95mi
2958 Canary Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1407	$1,900	$1.35	23d	1	0.96mi
2947 Canary Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1515	$1,900	$1.25	23d	1	0.98mi
118 E Pine St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,975	$1.62	3d	1	1.01mi
210 E Palm St Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1126	$2,250	$2.00	21d	1	1.13mi
2 W Orange St Unit 101 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1048	$1,795	$1.71	3d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $249,990 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,990 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,990 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 18 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,050
• − Management: −$2,050
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$4,754
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,141
• After-tax cash flow: $650/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Davenport

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #423
• US rank: #7541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 104,279
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B