8823 Mid Haven Cir · Canyon Creek, TX 76048

$150,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1985 $87/sqft · 26% below area Est $118k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks with this four bedroom, three bath home offering two spacious living areas in a well established neighborhood. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to add value, this property is ready for updates and priced with potential in mind. Flexible floor plan provides room to re-imagine the space to fit today's lifestyle. Conveniently located between Granbury and Glen Rose, giving easy access to dining shopping and local attractions in both areas. Bring your vision, whether you're renovating, investing, or creating a home tailored to your style this property offers the foundation to make it happen.

Key facts

• Local attractions
• Flexible floor plan
• Built 1985

Tags

• TWO SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• WELL ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING
• LOCAL ATTRACTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential (Manufactured Home); Subdivision: Mid Haven; Lot less than 0.5 acre; Parcel number R000020373; No known restrictions
• Financial info: Listing accepted cash offers; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No garage; No carport or covered parking spaces
• Security: Security features: Unknown
• Utilities: Utilities: Outside city limits / Other; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Manufactured home (attached); Two levels; Built in 1985; Shingle roof
• Construction: Foundation: Pillar/Post/Pier and slab; Construction materials: See remarks / Other
• Exterior features: Storage; Chain link fencing; Covered patio/porch; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (12 x 10); Total of 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Paneling; Walk-in closet(s); Two living areas; One dining area; 2 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Utility room for laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $566 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 4.7% in Canyon Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,102 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mambrino School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 886 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.17%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,989
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 27.13%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $8,222
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $39,703
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,833 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $401/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $566

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,117

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $651	-5% $608	+0% $566	+5% $523	+10% $481
Rent	-10% $421	-5% $493	+0% $566	+5% $638	+10% $711
Rate	-1.0pp $641	-0.5pp $604	base $566	+0.5pp $527	+1.0pp $487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8854 Mid Haven Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	25d	1	0.07mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    listed $150,000 Active 617-char remark
16. 2022-03-25
    soldstatus
17. 2002-05-09
    soldstatus
18. 1988-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $401 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,344/yr (+$195/mo · 584.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$401
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,760
• − Management: −$1,760
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $4,563
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,095
• After-tax cash flow: $5,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Creek

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1102
• US rank: #19485

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2022-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-05-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $401 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.