1458 Gardenia Dr · Micco, FL 32976

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1983 4,792 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Highly sought after Canal Front home in active BAREFOOT BAY community. Home has NEW VINYL SIDING, 2 bedroom , 2 full bath, NEW LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING, NEW ROOF , updated plumbing and * windows. Spacious enclosed sun room/ Office adds extra living space. The kitchen offers newer Stainless Refrigerator, GAS Range and Dish washer. Light and bright, large open front room serves as the living room indoor laundry room. Carport to protect your vehicle and storage shed that houses space for a workshop Home equipped with access ramp and is partially furnished. Come experience all that this community has to offer: 3 pools, private river access with dock for fishing, Golf course, rec center, t

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1983

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-24/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#633 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 759 students, 58% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Bayside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,854 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $199k implies a 283% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,956 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-32,341
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,195
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32976

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,092/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,752

Max offer price $198,649

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $111	-5% $54	+0% $-2	+5% $-58	+10% $-115
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $-71	+0% $-2	+5% $67	+10% $136
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $49	base $-2	+0.5pp $-54	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1207 Marigold Dr Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,500	$1.36	25d	1	0.08mi
904 Red Bud Rd Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,500	$1.17	25d	1	0.17mi
621 Hyacinth Cir Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1324	$1,850	$1.40	25d	1	0.34mi
805 Beech Ct Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1556	$1,995	$1.28	25d	1	0.37mi
706 Hyacinth Cir Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,750	$1.65	25d	1	0.39mi
914 Pecan Cir Sebastian, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	25d	1	0.45mi
1112 Pocatella Dr Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1370	$1,900	$1.39	25d	1	0.49mi
909 Sequoia St Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,845	$1.60	25d	1	0.56mi
1315 Barefoot Cir Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1167	$2,300	$1.97	25d	1	0.59mi
702 Lark Dr Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,775	$1.37	25d	1	0.62mi
7419 Tourmaline Dr Unit Annual Grant-Valkaria, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,200	$1.31	25d	1	0.70mi
7349 Tourmaline Dr Grant, FL	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,200	$1.27	25d	1	0.73mi
7629 Chasta Rd Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	958	$1,600	$1.67	25d	1	0.91mi
7606 Cedar Bark Rd Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1273	$1,800	$1.41	25d	1	0.93mi
7597 Cedar Bark Rd Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	902	$1,700	$1.88	25d	1	0.94mi
629 W Marlin Cir Unit NA Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,400	$1.27	16d	1	0.96mi
415 Plover Dr Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	25d	1	0.98mi
7181 Blue Shore Rd Grant, FL	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,995	$1.25	25d	1	1.00mi
830 Lychee Dr Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1269	$2,000	$1.58	25d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   listed $199,000 Active
3. 2026-03-01
   historical $199,000
4. 1998-12-10
   soldstatus $52,000
5. 1982-09-01
   soldstatus $8,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,092 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,092 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,092
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$813
• After-tax cash flow: $789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Micco

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #12408

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Micco, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,237

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.57%
• Current HPI: 321.5196
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2241.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — SCMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $199,000 SCMLS
• 2026-03-01 Coming Soon $199,000 SCMLS
• 1998-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1982-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,092 · +84.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.