267 Red Robin Ln · Shenandoah Farms, VA 22642

$385,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1995 0.56 ac lot $370/sqft · 90% above area Est $405k · 5% under ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

LOCATION! LOCATION! LOCATION! Mountain living at its finest. This spectacular lot is minutes away from the local vineyards, restaurants, shopping and more. Level driveway to avoid getting snowed in during the winter. Roof still under warranty. Updated washer, dryer, water heater and pressure tank. Finished basement with wood burning fireplace. * * * Ask about credit towards new flooring with a full price offer * * * If your looking for the perfect mountain hideaway this is it!

Key facts

• Updated washer
• Level driveway
• Finished basement

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• LEVEL DRIVEWAY
• UPDATED WASHER
• UPDATED DRYER
• UPDATED WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water; Well water service; Private septic
• Home design: Detached property; Fee simple ownership; Year built estimated
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Property includes above-grade and below-grade structures; Well water; Private septic tank

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level; Two full bathrooms total
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Estimated living area; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-673 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (30.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (45.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (45.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.8% in Shenandoah Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#440 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hilda J. Barbour Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 469 students, 66% FRL); Warren County High (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 833 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 34% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Warren County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$66k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $210,000 (45.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.49%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $405,344
• List price: $385,000
• Delta: -5.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
387 Rocky Mount Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+6%)	10mo	$390,000	$353	73
61 Red Robin Ln	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,088 (+5%)	17mo	$325,000	$299	64
31 Henry Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+15%)	14mo	$465,000	$389	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $166,636
• Equity at exit: $346,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $524,094
• Equity at exit: $747,970

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22642

• Home prices YoY: 10.6%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,833/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,952

Max offer price $266,081

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-455	-5% $-564	+0% $-673	+5% $-782	+10% $-891
Rent	-10% $-839	-5% $-756	+0% $-673	+5% $-590	+10% $-507
Rate	-1.0pp $-479	-0.5pp $-575	base $-673	+0.5pp $-773	+1.0pp $-874

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
316 Judy Ln Front Royal, VA	3.0	3.0	1255	$2,100	$1.67	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $385,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $385,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $385,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $385,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $385,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $385,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $385,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $385,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $385,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    status Pending 486-char remark
16. 2026-04-18
    listed $389,900 Active 486-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,833 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,157 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,324/yr (+$110/mo · 72.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$1,833
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$15,356
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,686
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shenandoah Farms

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #440
• US rank: #18845

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah Farms, VA
• Population (ZIP): 4,130

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.77%
• Current HPI: 437.0062
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $385,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-28 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $389,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,833 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.