339 Plain Ridge Dr · Timberlake, VA 24550

$249,999

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1999 0.89 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Private cul-de-sac living in Campbell County and the Brookville School District! This home features 3 bedrooms and 3 full baths on a permanent brick foundation with plenty of space inside and out. The renovated kitchen with marble countertops and dining area sits at the center of the home, opening to the oversized living room with gas log fireplace and rear deck access. Two bedrooms and a full bath are on one side, while the private primary suite on the opposite end features his and hers bathrooms with walk-in closets. The . 89-acre lot offers a circular driveway, 16x24 carport, 10x20 shed, and privacy backing up to over 1,000 acres of woods. Updates include roof, windows, front porch, and

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Renovated kitchen
• Gas log fireplace

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• GAS LOG FIREPLACE
• REAR DECK ACCESS
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-654/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Timberlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, amenities F.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Yellow Branch Elementary (math 60% / reading 63%, grade B, #516 of 1,108 statewide, top 47%, 573 students, 74% FRL); Brookville Middle (math 44% / reading 72%, grade B, #174 of 342 statewide, top 51%, 715 students, 74% FRL); Brookville High (math 66% / reading 82%, grade B+, #120 of 319 statewide, top 38%, 971 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 37% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $250k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.93%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-44,107
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-43,391
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24550

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,869

Max offer price $240,378

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14743 Leesville Rd Evington, VA	4.0	2.0	1825	$1,800	$0.99	21d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $249,999
3. 2026-03-06
   listed $259,999 Active
4. 2013-08-02
   soldstatus $110,000
5. 2008-12-05
   soldstatus $116,000
6. 1999-08-16
   soldstatus $15,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $735 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,315/yr (+$110/mo · 178.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,118
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,228
• After-tax cash flow: $575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100600
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,915
• Composite: 51.88/100
• National rank: #1656
• State rank: #55 of 131 in VA

Livability — Timberlake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7595

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,941

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,306 people
• By 2030: 56,366 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 55,406 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 53,011 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 45,932 · -18.4%
• By 2100: 36,029 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: German 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Vietnam, Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Vietnamese 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 25.3% · R 73.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+44.1 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.59%
• Current HPI: 180.6833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1472.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $249,999 LMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $259,999 LMLS
• 2013-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2008-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records
• 1999-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $15,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $735 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.