The 1651 Plan · Waco, TX 76708

$293,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · SingleFamily · 231 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! This four-bedroom, two bath home is a great option for those looking for more bedrooms without a second story! You won't believe your eyes as you walk into the great space that is the open concept living room, dining room, and kitchen. With all of its wonderful features, to include walk-in closets, granite countertops, and corner kitchen with island, you are sure to love this home!

Key facts

• dining room
• Walk-in closets
• kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CORNER KITCHEN WITH ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $293,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $326,091.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-378 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: China Spring El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 677 students, 36% FRL); China Spring Middle (math 63% / reading 59%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 478 students, 34% FRL); China Spring H S (math 50% / reading 69%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 546 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,458 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.96%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,091
• List price: $293,900
• Delta: -9.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10312 Neptune Ct	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,612 (-2%)	2mo	$265,030	$164	88
10313 Neptune Ct	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,691 (+2%)	1mo	$298,465	$177	83
10225 Altair Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,691 (+2%)	3mo	$279,575	$165	81
10409 Neptune Ct	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,691 (+2%)	2mo	$280,965	$166	80
10712 Peperak Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,590 (-4%)	2mo	$279,000	$175	68
5800 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,783 (+8%)	0mo	$325,820	$183	63
5308 Tama Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,719 (+4%)	2mo	$302,000	$176	63
11100 Beckon Fls	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,671 (+1%)	2mo	$279,900	$168	60
10405 Aquilla Trl	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,823 (+10%)	2mo	$383,400	$210	59
11108 Beckon Fls	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (-1%)	2mo	$279,900	$171	59
9448 Centennial Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (+12%)	0mo	$295,000	$160	51
9321 Tree Lake Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,883 (+14%)	0mo	$229,900	$122	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-83,815
• Equity at exit: $48,621

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-130,702
• Equity at exit: $28,194

Cash invested: $91,305 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 78 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.2 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $293,490 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 74 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76708

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 546
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,375 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,710
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$408 /mo · $4,891/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,853

Max offer price $271,448

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-152	-5% $-265	+0% $-378	+5% $-490	+10% $-603
Rent	-10% $-565	-5% $-471	+0% $-378	+5% $-284	+10% $-190
Rate	-1.0pp $-213	-0.5pp $-295	base $-378	+0.5pp $-462	+1.0pp $-548

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,523
• Closing costs: $9,783
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10104 Bethlehem Ct Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1654	$2,785	$1.68	3d	1	0.06mi
10201 Altair Dr Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,600	$1.28	116d	1	0.12mi
10221 Altair Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$2,250	$1.78	4d	1	0.13mi
5516 Pinery Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,600	$1.22	109d	1	0.48mi
11220 Haviture Way Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,300	$1.36	5d	1	0.78mi
10220 Lilac Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	139d	1	0.82mi
10209 Lilac Ln Unit B Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,500	$1.06	0d	1	0.86mi
10205 Lilac Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,495	$1.06	0d	1	0.87mi
10201 Iris Ln Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,495	$1.06	0d	1	0.92mi
9917 Desperado Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	2082	$2,245	$1.08	0d	1	1.29mi
9836 Salem Way Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	109d	1	1.41mi
9824 Salem Way Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	5d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $293,900 Active 231 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $293,900 Active 230 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $293,900 Active 229 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $293,900 Active 228 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $293,900 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $293,900 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $293,900 Active 224 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $293,900 Active 223 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $293,900 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $293,900 Active 221 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $293,900 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $293,900 Active 219 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $293,900 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $293,900 Active 212 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $293,900 Active 211 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $293,900 Active 208 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $293,900 Active 207 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $293,900 Active 206 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $293,900 Active 205 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $293,900 Active 204 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $293,900 Active 202 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $293,900 Active 201 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $293,900 Active 200 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $293,900 Active 199 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $293,900 Active 198 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $293,900 Active 197 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $293,900 Active 196 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $293,900 Active 195 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $293,900 Active 194 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $293,900 Active 193 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $293,900 Active 192 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $293,900 Active 191 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $293,900 Active 190 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $293,900 Active 189 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $293,900 Active 188 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $293,900 Active 187 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $293,900 Active 186 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $293,900 Active 185 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $293,900 Active 184 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $293,900 Active 183 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $293,900 Active 182 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $293,900 Active 181 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $293,900 Active 180 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $293,900 Active 177 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $293,900 Active 175 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $293,900 Active 173 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $293,900 Active 171 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $293,900 Active 169 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $293,900 Active 168 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $293,900 Active 167 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,266
• − Property taxes: −$4,891
• − Insurance: −$1,630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,280
• − Management: −$2,280
• − Depreciation: −$9,486
• Taxable loss: −$10,339
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,481
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This four-bedroom, two-bath home is in good condition with modern features and a well-maintained exterior. It is a great option for those looking for more bedrooms without a second story. Consider painting the interior walls and upgrading the kitchen and bathroom fixtures to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's value ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient fixtures can increase the home's value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary China Spring El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle China Spring Middle B+ TX #145/1,662 Nat'l #1,667/14,009 High China Spring H S C+ TX #275/1,632 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: China Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813960
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,314
• Composite: 50.64/100
• National rank: #1837
• State rank: #70 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 264,191 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,790
• Household income: $68,856
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 20% Black 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.80%
• Current HPI: 218.9643
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $292,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $291,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Listed $309,900 Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $309,900 Zillow
• 2025-10-10 Listed $308,900 Zillow