32 Heinsman Ln · Orange Lake, NY 12589

$275,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,162 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1880 2.40 ac lot $237/sqft · 37% below area Est $436k · 37% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

You don’t need to make a wish in this charming stone well; your opportunity is already here. Set on 2.4 picturesque acres, this 1800s farmhouse is rich in character, history, and potential for investors, builders, or buyers looking to create something truly their own. From the classic red exterior to the mature trees and open grounds, the setting feels straight out of a storybook. With strong bones and timeless charm and land that’s getting harder to find, the home offers a blank canvas ready for transformation. Whether you’re envisioning a modern farmhouse retreat, weekend escape, or long-term investment, the possibilities here are wide open. Bring your ideas, your vision, and yes even your Pinterest board this is where it all comes to life. Priced with opportunity in mind at $325,000 this is your chance to create the home you’ve always imagined.

Key facts

• 2.4 acre lot
• Built 1880
• Listed 54 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($238/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.8% in Orange Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#972 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallkill Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #279 of 590 in NY (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $255,000 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.31%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $435,564
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -36.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $151,131
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $444,254
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12589

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$438 /mo · $5,256/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,525

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1836 NY-300 Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.0	864	$2,550	$2.95	14d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-05-03
    price $299,900 886-char remark

    Show marketing remark (886 chars)

    You don’t need to make a wish in this charming stone well; your opportunity is already here. Set on 2.4 picturesque acres, this 1800s farmhouse is rich in character, history, and potential for investors, builders, or buyers looking to create something truly their own. From the classic red exterior to the mature trees and open grounds, the setting feels straight out of a storybook. With strong bones and timeless charm and land that’s getting harder to find, the home offers a blank canvas ready for transformation. Whether you’re envisioning a modern farmhouse retreat, weekend escape, or long-term investment, the possibilities here are wide open. Bring your ideas, your vision, and yes even your Pinterest board this is where it all comes to life. Priced with opportunity in mind at $325,000 this is your chance to create the home you’ve always imagined.

18. 2026-04-25
    listed $325,000 Active 886-char remark

    Show marketing remark (886 chars)

    You don’t need to make a wish in this charming stone well; your opportunity is already here. Set on 2.4 picturesque acres, this 1800s farmhouse is rich in character, history, and potential for investors, builders, or buyers looking to create something truly their own. From the classic red exterior to the mature trees and open grounds, the setting feels straight out of a storybook. With strong bones and timeless charm and land that’s getting harder to find, the home offers a blank canvas ready for transformation. Whether you’re envisioning a modern farmhouse retreat, weekend escape, or long-term investment, the possibilities here are wide open. Bring your ideas, your vision, and yes even your Pinterest board this is where it all comes to life. Priced with opportunity in mind at $325,000 this is your chance to create the home you’ve always imagined.

19. 2026-04-20
    historical $325,000 886-char remark

    Show marketing remark (886 chars)

    You don’t need to make a wish in this charming stone well; your opportunity is already here. Set on 2.4 picturesque acres, this 1800s farmhouse is rich in character, history, and potential for investors, builders, or buyers looking to create something truly their own. From the classic red exterior to the mature trees and open grounds, the setting feels straight out of a storybook. With strong bones and timeless charm and land that’s getting harder to find, the home offers a blank canvas ready for transformation. Whether you’re envisioning a modern farmhouse retreat, weekend escape, or long-term investment, the possibilities here are wide open. Bring your ideas, your vision, and yes even your Pinterest board this is where it all comes to life. Priced with opportunity in mind at $325,000 this is your chance to create the home you’ve always imagined.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,256 · $438/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,256 · $438/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$5,256
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,448
• − Management: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,331
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,039
• After-tax cash flow: $1,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallkill Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,323
• Composite: 49.06/100
• National rank: #2057
• State rank: #279 of 590 in NY

Livability — Orange Lake

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #972
• US rank: #18993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,639

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.97%
• Current HPI: 323.1502
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $299,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Listed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Coming Soon $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,256 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.