LYNFORD Plan · Eagle Lake, FL 33839

$289,990

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,557 sqft · SingleFamily · 112 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3 bed | 2.5 bath | 2-bay | 1557 sqft * Closing costs are additional and not included in the USDA 30 year fixed rate 100% financing. Terms and availability of this loan program, and the sales price, are examples only and are subject to change without notice. Loans are subject to credit approval. Restrictions and conditions may apply. USDA loans are subject to income and geographic eligibility criteria. Loan program is available through Inspire Home Loans® | NMLS # 1564276, click here for State Licensing Disclosures with additional information found at NMLS Consumer Access: www. nmlsconsumeraccess.org . ©02/2025 Century Communities, Inc.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 112 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces, including a 2-car garage
• Home design: LYNFORD plan (new construction plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,557

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#196 in FL, #3,096 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,417 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $4,507
• Equity at exit: $110,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $57,116
• Equity at exit: $156,056

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33839

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,304 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,537

Max offer price $263,401

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2442 Taloncrest Ct Eagle Lake, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,700	$1.46	23d	1	0.04mi
2000 Golden Beak Dr Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,990	$1.29	14d	1	0.11mi
2029 Carroll Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,500	$1.19	21d	1	0.31mi
910 Sun Burst Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,000	$1.18	23d	1	0.76mi
2587 Sage Valley Way Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,300	$1.50	14d	1	1.06mi
301 Majestic Gardens Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1951	$2,020	$1.04	18d	1	1.21mi
1504 Hummingbird Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	1942	$2,599	$1.34	3d	1	1.22mi
1504 Hummingbird Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	1942	$2,599	$1.34	23d	1	1.22mi
547 Snively Ave Eloise, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$600	$0.55	23d	1	1.22mi
948 Craftsman Rd Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,895	$1.22	3d	1	1.31mi
109 Solis Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,086	$1.28	3d	1	1.38mi
740 Trotters Dr Eagle Lake, FL	4.0	2.0	1973	$2,295	$1.16	23d	1	1.41mi
1469 Deepwater Cir Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,000	$1.37	23d	1	1.43mi
1033 Holden Way Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,950	$1.25	14d	1	1.44mi
608 Trotters Dr Eagle Lake, FL	4.0	3.0	2140	$2,400	$1.12	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,990 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,990 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $289,990 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 94 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,212
• − Management: −$2,212
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$7,254
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,741
• After-tax cash flow: $-464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Eagle Lake

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #3096

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eagle Lake, FL
• City population: 4,397
• Population (ZIP): 4,397

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 8% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 23% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 317.0642
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B